Geopolitics

Gaza – Facts on the Ground Part 1 (of a 2 Part Series)

Hamas

Hamas won elections in Gaza in 2006. Since then, Israel has been attacking Gaza every few years- due to removing Gaza ownership over these gas fields. In the beginning of these conflicts, Hamas was often defeated by the IDF. But, over the past 15 years, Hamas learnt, improved, and became a powerful force to be reckoned with. In doing so, it became a master of asymmetric war. Ever since the discovery of Gas offshore Gaza, the IDF has done everything it could do to force the people of Gaza to leave-to no avail.

As Israel was moving towards reconciliation with Saudi Arabia, Hamas recognized that if this deal goes through, it would make it harder for Palestine to achieve its statehood. So, Hamas had to act before this becomes a fait accompli.

 Another key issue was the constant humiliation, shootings, house demolishing, illegal arrests, the imprisonment of women and children, and destruction of livelihood- such as olives tress being destroyed.

The issue that angers the Palestinians most is the constant invasions of the Al Aqsa Mosque by settlers protected by Israeli soldiers and police. This is the 3rd holiest site in the world for 2 billion Muslims.

No Christian will tolerate this if, say the Vatican is being constantly being invaded, tear-gassed and beaten. No Jew will tolerate this if the same thing happened in a synagogue.

 It is very appropriate that Hamas has called this the “Al Aqsa Flood”, which signifies a different theme going forward – that of a religious overtones. It is the first time that religion is now being used in the war against Israel. In this regard, Israel will lose, as it has no chance against several million armed Arabs and Iranians looking for a chance for vengeance against baby-killers. Israel has just opened a door into hell, and it’s a door that will not be closed. Israel is not on the right side of history. Open genocide is ongoing, supported by the US, Britain, France and Germany.  The “chosen race” is a purely racist attitude .Israel is the greatest threat to international peace and security. Not only the religious aspect, but it’s the first time that the Muslim is united like never before. We see that Shia Iran is uniting with Sunni Turkey. Sunni Pakistan has made its nuclear weapons available. Even Yemen has joined the fight, launching missiles and drones, hitting the coastal city of Eilat.

 The IDF Response

After the initial shock and confusion, it was late on Saturday that the IDF began bombing Gaza. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched their ground operation in Gaza, but their success is rather mixed, as the dug-in Hamas is resisting ferociously. What’s more, the massive bombing campaign Israel started soon after the October 7 attacks reduced entire quarters to rubble. This not only homogenized many Palestinian civilians and Hamas, but also resulted in the emergence of a major military obstacle, as the rubble is slowing down the advance of Israeli ground units.

One might ask, why did Israel even start such a massive bombing campaign instead of targeting specifically the Hamas leadership? To answer this question, one needs to look at the role of the United States. Namely, the American military is providing advanced ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets to the IDF, so it’s very difficult to imagine that neither knows the whereabouts of the Hamas leadership or at the very least their high-ranking officials and commanders. Targeting them directly would’ve certainly brought the conflict to a halt instead of a perpetual escalation. Interestingly, it’s precisely the US that has been directing these attacks by providing the necessary ISR data.

The results have been a humanitarian disaster for Palestinians while bringing no military advantage to the IDF. On the contrary, the more Israeli jets bomb, the more popular Hamas becomes, providing an additional endless manpower pool for the foreseeable future. This is certainly not in the interest of Gaza, particularly its civilian population and is neither in the interest of Israel itself, as it increases the chances of a repeat of the October 7 attacks. Knowing this, the question remains, why does Israel keep doing it? The answer may seem logical – the IDF simply plans to reduce Gaza to rubble, but the pattern of the attacks indicates that Israel is not making all the decisions on its own.

Namely, the American involvement shows that the US military is determined to not only keep the conflict going for as long as possible, but also to expand it by getting other regional powers directly involved. And this is certainly not the first time NATO is doing something like that. As we all know now, American ISR assets (particularly drones) are directly engaged in hostilities in Ukraine where they are used to direct the Kiev regime’s attacks on both military and civilian targets in both Ukraine and Russia. This results in thousands of casualties, as well as in the continuation of the conflict, which is precisely what the US is most interested in. And what’s true in Ukraine can also be true for Gaza and Israel.

In short, Washington DC is simply interested in keeping the conflict going as long as possible. Neutral countries have already offered ways to avoid escalation, including direct mediation between the two sides, but to no avail, unfortunately. This includes Russia, with President Vladimir Putin calling for an immediate ceasefire that would prevent further bloodshed.

Apart from this, the US is also activating its massive fleet of airlift assets that are flying into Israel, obviously preparing the country for a long-term war. Some sources have reported that in the last several days, there have been approximately 50 such flights per day, which is unprecedented. It’s important to note that in the months before Hamas attacked, the IDF and the US military were already engaged in massive war games involving precisely in-flight refueling and massed airlift. Such activities mere months or even weeks before the current crisis clearly indicate that belligerent NATO planned ahead for what’s currently unfolding. Reports have emerged that 5,000 US troops are already on the ground, helping the IDF to kill the resistance fighters.

In the meantime, Palestinian civilians in Gaza endure ongoing, indiscriminate attacks with the most sophisticated heavy weapons in existence, living under the persistent threat of forced and potentially irreversible displacement. This Israeli air blitz was made possible only by the flood of unsubstantiated ‘Hamas atrocities’ stories that media began to circulate on and after 7 October.

The “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle launched by the Palestinian resistance on 7 October dealt Israel an unprecedented blow – in terms of human loss and its impact on the country’s military, intelligence, psychology, and deterrence.

In exchange for the blow it received, Israel set itself a goal of eliminating the Hamas movement. Hence, any ceasefire without achieving the full elimination of Hamas means a pure Israeli loss.  And while the Israeli military has killed more than 10,000 Palestinian civilians and caused massive damage to housing and infrastructure in its 28-day air assault on the Gaza Strip, it has neither restored the pre-7 October deterrence it enjoyed, nor is it capable of emerging victorious.

To date, Israel has not been able to seriously harm Hamas’ military structure, say Gaza sources. Any ceasefire today would therefore mean that Tel Aviv has publicly swallowed the losses it incurred in Operation Al-Aqsa flood: at least 2,000 dead Israelis, the destruction of its army’s Gaza division, and 250 captives held by its enemy inside Gaza. To this figure, we must add another 100-200 IDF and US soldiers and officers. Israeli and American soldiers are being captured in large numbers on a daily basis.

These prisoners will be used by the resistance to negotiate the release of more than 6,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli detention centers, in addition to lifting the siege on the Gaza Strip. Unless Tel Aviv is willing to sacrifice all these prisoners in its Gaza air blitz, the captives will play a big role in any settlement. Consider, for instance, that in 2011, Israel exchanged a single captured soldier for 1,027 Palestinian detainees.

Israel cannot exit this battle without fighting a ground war. Its army spokesman, Jonathan Conricus, told the Australian ABC that a ground war will occur unless Hamas complies with two conditions: surrendering without conditions, and releasing all Israeli prisoners. The Palestinian resistance outright rejects these conditions, and will continue to use its captives to pressure Israel to stop the war. Together, these will deliver a massive blow to Israel’s hard-fought deterrence capacity. 

What’s taking so long?

Israel believes it needs a ground war to restore its deterrence with not only Gaza’s resistance factions, but also with adversaries in Lebanon, Iran, and the rest of the region. This ground war will focus on the northern Gaza Strip, including Gaza City and its environs, where the military and heart of the resistance is based. Eliminating Hamas in the northern Gaza Strip will inflict a defeat on the resistance that will take years, and perhaps decades, to recover from. So then, why hasn’t the ground war begun yet? 28 days have already elapsed since Israel’s declaration of war, when it began to mobilize its 300,000 soldiers and reserve officers. 

First, the occupation army knows well that the goal of “eliminating Hamas” is no easy feat. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has said that “eliminating Hamas is not possible” because it is an expression of an ideology and exists “in people’s hearts and minds.” Barak’s analysis is important – he isn’t just a former head of state, but importantly, a former Israeli army chief of staff and a former defense minister who led two battles in the Gaza Strip in 2008 and 2012.

Second, the Palestinian resistance in Gaza has prepared itself well for the ground war. The last such operation conducted by the Israelis in 2014, in which 60 troops were killed and two went missing, ended in failure by not achieving any of its goals. At that time, the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) forces had nowhere near the quality of armaments, training, and numbers that they have today. 

Furthermore, the network of strategic underground tunnels allegedly built by the Gaza resistance also developed significantly after 2014, allowing Hamas, PIJ, and others to move troops, weapons, and supplies around the territory unseen. The Resistance has built more than 650 kms of tunnels under Gaza, big enough to drive cars and bicycles through it.

While the Israeli army seems prepared to bear greater human losses than it did in any previous war, largely because of Al-Aqsa Flood’s huge death toll, this does not mean that Tel Aviv can bear the cost of thousands more deaths, hundreds of destroyed armored vehicles, and the economic fallout of war.

The Israelis usually also try to avoid lengthy battles at all cost. In the case of a ground war, Tel Aviv recognizes that it may need to occupy the northern Gaza Strip for months, which will place severe hardship and pressure on Israel’s settlement community who will effectively become refugees.

Third, is Israel’s fear that its regional adversaries will open other battle fronts to relieve pressure on the resistance in Gaza. Both Washington and Tel Aviv are most wary of this development unfolding on the border with Lebanon. 

The Lebanese Border

But even the introduction of two US aircraft carriers (and another 2 on the way) into the East Mediterranean was unable to deter the Lebanese resistance, Hezbollah, from continuing its attacks on Israeli military positions along the Lebanese-Palestinian border. Since October 8, these borders have turned into daily clashes that have only escalated on both sides. ​​

So far, the Israeli army has lost most of the surveillance equipment (built at a cost of several billion dollars) that it amassed over years on that critical border. Hezbollah has also destroyed more than 9 tanks and 11 armored vehicles, 105 military sites, 140 cameras, 33 radars, 2 drones, 69 communications systems, 17 jamming systems, and 120 dead and wounded IDF soldiers. In addition, about 65,000 setters have been evacuated from the northern border, leaving ghost towns in its wake.. In turn, the resistance has lost 28 of its soldiers, along with four Lebanese civilians. After Israel launched its mini – probes into Gaza on Friday night, along with the most savage and intensified bombing of Gaza since Oct 7th, Hezbollah increased its firing in the north. Over the following 3 days, missiles, rockets, drones, anti-tank rockets are increasingly targeting IDF and other strategic sites. , causing great panic in Tel Aviv. 

Palestinian resistance factions (Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which had 5 casualties) have also participated in these Lebanese border operations, in addition to the “Islamic Group,” the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the “Lebanese Brigades for Resisting the Occupation,” which lost two fighters.

The situation on the Lebanese-Palestinian border is still being classified as “clashes,” despite the intensity of confrontations escalating each day. While the Resistance Axis refuses to divulge any of its plans, its sources indicate that escalation against the Israeli military will increase in correlation with developments in the Gaza war.

US Presence & the Axis of Resistance

The fourth factor delaying the onset of Israel’s ground war is Washington’s need to secure its own regional military bases, assets, and interests, in advance of any regional escalation.

In recent days, US bases in Iraq and Syria have been bombed by Iraqi resistance factions, as Yemen launched missiles and drones in the direction of Israel. When some of these projectiles were shot down by US defense systems, Yemen threatened to target Israeli ships in the Red Sea. Today, Yemen unleashed a barrage of ballistic missiles and drones at the Israeli port of Eilat. So, now Yemen has joined the war against Israel.

On the Iraqi-Jordanian border, Iraqi resistance factions are mobilizing thousands of supporters who have declared their intention to head to the occupied West Bank, via Jordan, if the aggression against Gaza continues.

To date, Israel’s western allies have amassed aircraft carriers and battleships; 2,000 American soldiers have landed in occupied Palestine; about 5,000 tons of western military aid has been airlifted to Israel; tens of thousands of munitions intended for Ukraine have been diverted to the occupation army; the Biden administration has announced the allocation of $14 billion in urgent aid to replenish Israel’s war coffers; the US has issued threats to the entire regional Axis of Resistance in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran that it will enter the war if those forces attacked the Israeli army. Together, all these factors have delayed the start of Israel’s ground war in Gaza, as Tel Aviv awaits the arrival of even more US and western forces into West Asia and the eastern Mediterranean – both to bolster Israeli military forces and to fortify US bases in the region. 

The fifth and final reason for postponing Tel Aviv’s ground invasion is to provide a short window for Qatari-led negotiations to gain the release of further captives held in Gaza, as revealed by Israeli Army Radio on 23 October. Delaying the ground war does not, however, mean canceling it. In 2014, Israel’s ground attack began two weeks after the war’s onset, although the number of Israeli reservists called up was no more than 40,000 – one-seventh of the 300,000 troops mobilized today. 

Israel also faces another problem that it cannot solve: the presence of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians in the northern Gaza Strip who refuse to comply with Israeli orders to abandon their homes.

All these factors pose a potentially insurmountable challenge for Tel Aviv. They each conspire to thwart Israel’s plan to destroy Hamas and re-establish the deterrence capacity it lost on 7 October. While the occupation state may win many battles ahead, it cannot win the war with so many uncontrolled variables in the air.

On October 22nd Friday night, the IDF entered Gaza just for a few minutes, and were ambushed. The tanks and bulldozers were destroyed, many soldiers –IDF and Americans were killed and wounded, and they fled the scene. Such incidents happen on a regular basis over the last several nights and days.

There was another incident earlier in today October 31st the Battle of Beit Hanoun, in which the IDF and US Marines launched a major attack with tanks. This battle ended with heavy losses, in which 67 marines and IDF were killed plus 26 Marines and 17 IDF soldiers were captured.

Since then, over the past few days, the IDF has entered Gaza at a few points. The resistance was waiting for them. What followed was a series of constant attacks and ambushes on the IDF. This resulted in losses in tanks, bulldozers, APCs, other equipment, and most importantly, the IDF is taking heavy casualties. According to reports from the resistance groups, more than 100 tanks and APCS have been destroyed. Scores of soldiers – both American and Israeli – have been killed and captured. All this has happened while the resistance is firing missiles, mortar shells, rockets, anti-tank weapons. AND, all of Israel’s cities are being hit ON A DAILY BASIS- multiple times- with missiles and rockets. Tel Aviv has not seen a day of peace since October 7th.  On some days, Tel Aviv is hit with more than 50 missiles. Those settlements and towns near the Gaza Strip are hit daily, especially Ashkelon and Ashdod. Naval bases are being attacked as well with Resistance SEALS! Add to this is that missiles from Yemen have hit Tel Aviv!

Battlefield failures are increasing the divisions, blaming, finger-pointing and anger within Israeli society as a whole, and in the political, military and security leadership. Many Israeli citizens, already fed-up with Bibi, are now blaming him for the failure to protect them. It looks like Bibi’s political life is coming to an end. Bibi was furious and took out his anger on his military chiefs.  Netanyahu has apologized for a post blaming the country’s security services for failing to predict the Hamas attack. The Jewish state’s PM was responding to widespread criticism from the country’s media as well as members of his own war cabinet.

On Saturday, after a late night press conference, Netanyahu’s office wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that “under no circumstances and at no stage was Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of Hamas’s war intentions.”

The office added that “on the contrary, all the security officials, including the head of military intelligence and the head of the Shin Bet [security service], assessed that Hamas had been deterred and was looking for a settlement.”

However, the post sparked a fierce backlash from Israeli officials and politicians. Several thousand US troops have taken part in Israel’s ground operation in Gaza. The Pentagon has recently announced plans to significantly reinforce its military presence in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas conflict and tensions with Iran.

Israel’s assault on Gaza involved three divisions and several brigades and was also underpinned by 5,000 US military personnel. To cover up these massive losses, the IDF takes out its frustration and revenge on the civilians in Gaza, by ruthless bombing, especially at night to avoid giving any publicity to the world. But, these crimes cannot be hidden or covered up.

 The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) attempted to enter the enclave from several areas in the north, west, and southwest “to split the Gaza Strip into two or three sections and cut off the connection among the Palestinian resistance forces before launching the next stage of the war.” All efforts resulted in failure.

Latest reports this morning, 31st October, 2023, Israel has attacked a refugee camp in northern Gaza, hitting it with SIX 1 ton bombs. The result? More than 400 deaths! How many of them are children?

Palestinians search for casualties at the site of an Israeli strike on Jabalya refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, October 31.

The war escalation in the Middle East does not stop. The killing increases almost exponentially, to the point of “no return”, meaning that the threshold of “beyond salvation” has been crossed. Food and water deliveries, partial re-instatement of communication, do not make a difference anymore. The infrastructure to cook, to distribute food and water, to attend to the wounded, to communicate – even to bury the death – has been destroyed.

The Israeli, especially Netanyahu, and of course his western allies, the US and Europe know that very well. Once destruction beyond salvation has been reached, they may allow a ceasefire, negotiations and even permit opening the borders to Egypt and Jordan, so that Palestinians from Gaza, the survivors, broken to the core, but still able to walk, may escape to the Egyptian Sinai desert, and those from the West Bank, to western Jordan. That is the first step towards the Greater Israel: first by extermination, then by expulsion by any means; expulsion of Palestinians from THEIR historic territory. They have nowhere to go. Expulsion by the “Chosen People” the Zionists, who condemn and even ask for punishment of anybody who they consider an anti-Semite. What an irony, as most Jews that reside in Israel come from Russia and Europe. These are the descendants of the Khazar tribe in the Caucasus that converted to Judaism in the 8th century, and who migrated to, and, settled in Eastern Europe. THEY HAVE NO BLOOD TIES TO PALESTINE. Thus, THEY ARE NOT SEMITE- but they are killing the Semites. It would be correct to call the present Jews in Israel as the TRUE ANTI-SEMITES!!

There are no anti-Semites to speak of. The most blatant anti-Semites are the Zionists themselves – people like Netanyahu, who are about to drive Israel as a nation into the ground, possibly into oblivion.

Jordan’s Queen Rania calls out the world’s glaring double standards. Some of the world’s defenders of ethics and peace start standing up. They are those who still insist on thinking freely, and whose conscience is clicking. Their numbers are increasing. Of course, not the Washington empire and its spineless slew of European vassals.

But there is at least one EU member country’s Government, with a minister who is no longer keeping quiet. As a first in Europe, Spain’s Minister of Social Justice, Ms. Ione Belarra, implores the Europeans non-action on this mass-murder executed by Israel’s IDF and the almost unilateral support for Israel. She calls the European leaders as not being up to “the gravity of the circumstances,” and thereby being “complicit in this planned and ongoing genocide.” She wants European countries to break diplomatic relations with Israel and imposing economic sanctions on PM Netanyahu and his entourage.

Latin American countries, Bolivia, Colombia, and Chile, have just severed diplomatic relations with Israel. Other Latin American countries may follow suit.

Jordan recalled its ambassador, and refused the return of the Israeli ally. Jordan’s population is majority Palestinian. When the IDF began bombing the West Bank, their relatives in Jordan began demanding that Jordan open up its gates to allow them to join the fight. The pressure from the Arab street is beyond limit.  For how long can these governments hold them back, before they themselves ate toppled by the street?

Mr. Putin exclaims the Gaza horror cannot be justified. There is no excuse for Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of Gaza. In 21 months of war, Russia has killed around 10,000 Ukrainian civilians. The IDF, in 25 days, killed more than this number! The world has recoiled in revulsion and horror of the Israeli genocide of Palestinians. As a result, many have distanced themselves from having anything to do with Israel, except those who are vassals.

The Gaza war is amplifying the divide between the Collective West and the Global South – what we refer to as Zone A (the West) and Zone B (global south). The Zone B nations have seen the west show that the values of white-skinned people are deemed to be more valuable than the rest. The war has exposed the double standards, hypocrisy, racism and “exceptionalism” of the West.

The Zone A nations are listed on the map: They are the US, Canada, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, PLUS the vassal nations such as Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

The Zone B nations are the rest:  Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, plus Russia.

In the Gaza War, the Zone A nations have sided with Israel, along with a few of their vassals in Zone B. The longer the genocide goes on, these vassals will break away from their masters in London and New York. The world is witnessing this in real time. Many citizens within the Zone A nations are from the Zone B areas. They are siding with Gaza. Many white citizens of Zone A nations are siding with Gaza.

The story continues in Part 2 – – –

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