Since our last report – end August – about the facts on the war in Ukraine, we now update you on key events on this war that has occurred over the past 4 months – September till end December 2022. After a slow grind for much of the summer, events have begun to accelerate, calling to mind a famous quip from Vladimir Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” And as Putin stated back in May: “You should know, by and large, we haven’t even started anything yet in earnest.”
Since the start of the war, Russia annexed 120,000 km2 – or 22% of Ukrainian territory – that produces nearly 90% of GDP and has over 5 million citizens. Along the way, the Russian Military and allied forces basically destroyed the Ukrainian army, which they continue to do 24/7; billions of dollars of NATO equipment; accelerated the demise of most Western economies; and evaporated the notion of American hegemony. This has been one of those moments. Let’s try to process all the developments of the past 4 months and get a handle on the trajectory in Ukraine.
In all, it is clear that we are currently in the transitional period towards a new phase of the war, with higher Russian force deployment, expanded rules of engagement, and greater intensity looming. Season 2 of the Special Military Operation looms and with it the entry of General Winter.
Annexation
The keystone event at the heart of recent escalation was the recent annexation in four regions (Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson) into the Russian Federation.
After annexation, these four new regions will be viewed by the Russian state as sovereign Russian territory, subject to protection with the full range of Russian capabilities, including (in the most dire and unlikely scenario) nuclear weapons. When Medvedev pointed this out, it was bizarrely spun as a “nuclear threat”, but what he was actually trying to communicate is that these four oblasts will become part of Russia’s minimum definition of state integrity – non-negotiable, in other words.
The move to annex was accompanied with Putin’s long-awaited announcement of a “partial mobilization”. Ostensibly, the initial order calls up just 300,000 men with previous military experience, but reports indicate several times that much volunteered; of which around 70,000 were accepted. Their presence in Donbass will free up the regulars to advance further, although some of the land taken by Kiev forces in September has already been taken back and more is liberated every day. The initial surge of 400,000 men is being a bit muddled. Not all of the men being called up will be sent to Ukraine. Many will remain in Russia on garrison duty so that existing ready formations can be rotated to Ukraine. Therefore, it is likely that we will see more Russian units arriving in theater much sooner than expected.
Just recently, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that, in addition to the nearly 400,000 new members in the army, an ADDITIONAL 350,000 more men will be added: this will bring the Russian military strength to 1.5 million. Excluding Turkey and the US, the most that NATO can now field is between 100,000 to 200,000 men!
At the start of the war, Ukraine’s army numbered some 700,000. Total Ukraine losses are some 150,000 -200,000 dead, and about 450,000 wounded. Of the wounded, more than half will not be able to re-join the battle. What this means is that Ukraine’s initial army is wiped out. What Kiev has done recently is press-gang conscripts, national guardsmen, plus any one of fighting age. None of them are military-trained. The losses of the Ukrainian Army in the Kharkiv and Donbass area; from the end of August till the end of December; is around 35,000 KIA, plus MIA plus POW’s. Plenty of equipment was destroyed as well. In contrast, total losses on the Russian side are about 20,000- till the end of December. Of these 75% of the losses come from the Donbass militias, the Wagner Group and the Chechens. Russian KIA is about 5,000.
In places where the Russian Army has chosen to deploy sizeable regular formations, the results have been disastrous for Ukraine – the infamous Kherson Counteroffensive(In Aug-Sept) turned into a shooting gallery for Russian artillery, with the Ukrainian Army haplessly funneling men into a hopeless bridgehead at Andriivka. The governor of the province of Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, has announced on the Russian Channel One that Kiev Forces have lost 9,800 soldiers in six weeks, together with 320 tanks, 250 infantry carriers, 542 armored cars, 36 aircraft and 7 helicopters. They fell into the Russian trap, allowing them to advance through the open countryside.
So far in this war, Ukraine has achieved two big successes retaking territory: first in the late summer recapture of Kharkov, and the re-taking of Kherson in late October. In both cases, the Russians had preemptively hollowed out the sector. We have yet to see a successful Ukrainian offensive against the Russian Army in a defensive posture. Ukraine spent the summer sending its 2nd tier conscripts to the front in the Donbas and Kherson as it collected NATO-donated weapons and trained units in the rear. With generous NATO help, Ukraine was able to accumulate forces for two full scale offensives – one in Kherson (which failed spectacularly) and one in Kharkov (which succeeded in pushing past the Russian screening force and reaching the Oskil). Much of that carefully accumulated fighting power is now gone or degraded.
The scale and pace of Russia’s new force generation is likely to shock people. On the whole, the timing of Russia’s manpower surge coincides with the depletion of Ukrainian capabilities. Therefore, Ukraine’s window for offensive operations has closed, and what remains is closing quickly. Ukraine has spent much of the combat power that they accumulated with NATO help during the summer, and will have an urgent need to reduce combat intensity for refitting and rearming at precisely the same time that Russian combat power in the theater begins to surge simultaneously, NATO’s ability to arm Ukraine is on the verge of exhaustion. Let’s look at this more closely.
Depleting NATO
One of the more fascinating aspects of the war in Ukraine is the extent to which Russia has contrived to attrition NATO military hardware without fighting a direct war with NATO forces. There are now very limited stockpiles to draw from to continue to arm Ukraine. Military Watch Magazine noted that NATO has drained the old Warsaw Pact tank park, leaving them bereft of Soviet tanks to donate to Ukraine. Once these reservoirs are fully tapped, the only option will be giving Ukraine western tank models. This, however, is much harder than it sounds, because it would require not only extensive training of tank crews, but also an entirely different selection of ammunition, spare parts, and repair facilities. Tanks are not the only problem, however. Ukraine is now staring down the barrel of a serious shortage of conventional tube artillery. Earlier in the summer, the United States donated 155mm howitzers, but with stockpiles of both guns and shells dwindling, they’ve recently been forced to turn to lower caliber towed trash. After the announcement of yet another aid, the USA has now put together five consecutive packages which do not contain any conventional 155mm shells. Shells for Ukraine’s Soviet vintage artillery were running low as early as June.
In effect, the effort to keep Ukraine’s artillery arm functioning has gone through a few phases. In the first phase, Warsaw Pact stockpiles of Soviet shells were drained to supply Ukraine’s existing guns. In the second phase, Ukraine was given mid-level western capabilities, especially the 155mm howitzer. Now that 155mm shells are running low, Ukraine has to make do with 105mm guns which are badly outranged by Russian howitzers and will be, in a word, doomed in any kind of counterbattery action.
As a substitute for adequate tube artillery, the latest aid package does include 18 more of the internet’s favorite meme weapon – the HIMARS Multiple Launch Rocket System. What is not explicitly mentioned in the press release is that the HIMARS systems don’t exist in current US inventories and will have to be built, and are thus unlikely to arrive in Ukraine for several years.
In addition, the US has been going around the world, begging other nations for arms and equipment, and having very little success. Nor is the Ukraine war draining the military stockpiles of NATO nations, but also the military stockpiles of other nations not in NATO, mainly vassal states such as Pakistan and South Korea.
There is a bitter fight in the Pentagon between the military and the civilian leadership. The Pentagon says it would run out of equipment and ammunition if it agrees to give Ukraine any more military aid. Since the White House is calling the shots, this is building resentment within the Pentagon. Anyone who expects the war to slow down during the winter is in for a surprise. Russia may launch a late winter offensive and achieve significant gains. The arc of force generation (both Russia’s increasing force accumulation and Ukraine’s degradation) coincides with the approach of cold weather.
Winter weather actually favors a Russian offensive for multiple reasons. One of the paradoxes of military operations is that freezing weather actually enhances mobility – vehicles can get stuck in mud, but not on frozen ground. The winter death of foliage also reduces the cover available to troops in a defensive posture. And, of course, cold weather favors the side with more reliable access to energy.
Winter will bring not only the eclipse of the Ukrainian army, the destruction of vital infrastructure, and the loss of new territory and population centers, but also a severe economic crisis in Europe. For now, though, we are in the interregnum as the last flames of Ukraine’s fighting power flickers out. Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive. There will be several weeks where nothing happens, and then everything will happen.
The U.S. military has shown itself incapable of beating a ragtag Taliban force in Afghanistan and does not stand a chance against Russia. “NATO would be totally outmatched in a conventional war with Russia… Today, NATO and American anti-armor weapons continue to play catch up to new innovations being fielded by the Russians. The Americans like to quantify the Russian Army as being ‘near peer’ in terms of its capabilities; the fact of the matter is that it is the U.S. and NATO armored forces that are ‘near peer’ to their Russian counterparts, and there are many more Russian tanks in Europe today than there are NATO and American.
Instead of Russia running out of missiles and ammunition as is often claimed, it is the U.S. and NATO which have emptied out their warehouses and run out of weapons, as reported by CNBC: “In the U.S. weapons industry, the normal production level for artillery rounds for the 155mm howitzer – a long-range heavy artillery weapon currently used on the battlefields of Ukraine – is about 30,000 rounds per year in peacetime. The Ukrainian soldiers… go through that amount in roughly two weeks.” Pentagon is now looking for U.S. companies to build more shells, while new HIMARS systems promised to Ukraine won’t arrive for years. The painful truth for NATO is that the decades-long offshoring of manufacturing to low-wage countries has left it with insufficient industrial capacity required to wage a protracted war against a ‘near-peer’ adversary.
Nordstream
At the precise moment when the citizens of Germany were rioting in demanding that the Nord Stream pipeline be re-opened, the US along with the UK, blew up 3 of the 4 strings of Nord Stream. The 4th line was not bombed due to the underwater drone malfunctioning.
Russia clearly perceives this as a bridge burning move of sabotage by NATO, designed to back them into a corner. The Russian government has decried it as an act of “international terrorism” and argued that the explosions occurred in areas “controlled by NATO.
Let’s be frank about this. Russia did not blow up its own pipelines, and it is ludicrous to suggest that they did. The importance of the pipeline to Russia lay in the fact that it could be switched on and off, providing a mechanism for leverage and negotiation vis-à-vis Germany. In the classic carrot and stick formulation, one cannot move the donkey if the carrot is blown up. And so, we return to elementary analysis, and ask: Cui bono? Who benefits?
Let us briefly meditate on the actual implications of Nordstream’s demise. Germany loses what little autonomy and flexibility it had, making it even more dependent on the United States. Russia loses a point of leverage over Europe, reducing the inducements to negotiation. Poland and Ukraine become even more critical transit hubs for gas.
KERCH BRIDGE and Escalation
A few days after the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines, the Ukrainians with MI6, placed a bomb in a truck, which exploded on the Kerch Bridge, linking Crimea to Russia, damaging a section of the road. This was a mistake on the part of Ukraine. This was Putin’s pet project. Russia clearly perceives this as a bridge burning move of sabotage by NATO, designed to back them into a corner. The Russian government has decried it as an act of “international terrorism” – they blame NATO for an act of terrorism, without explicitly saying that.
This single act removed any restrain that Putin had, since the war began. Until the two recent terrorist bombings (Nordstream pipelines and Kerch bridge), Russia had been reacting in a highly restrained manner to the US and US proxy aggravations Within two days, Putin began a heavy bombing attack on Ukraine’s’ electricity grid. Since the 12th of October, this air campaign has not stopped.
After 4 months of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, especially on power supplies, even Zelensky has today admitted that 50% of the Kiev regime power stations have been destroyed throughout the Ukraine. This is all in response to his terrorism in Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Belgorod, and on Nordstream and the Crimean Bridge. What else did he expect?
So where do we go from here?
First, there is going to be more of the same that is that the West will continue to rely on terrorism as one of its main weapons against Russia. Most of you must have heard about the massacre of Russian soldiers in training by NATO terrorists, but you probably did not hear that the Belarussian security services have prevented a number of terrorist actions in Belarus.
And since there are always more potential targets than resources to guard them, we can, alas, safely assume that terrorist attacks in Russia will continue
This war has already profoundly changed Russia and for the better. The 5th column is basically dead. The Atlantic Integrationists either gone or in deep concealment. The 6th column made the max of the so-called Russian “defeats” and “imminent collapse” but right now only a really terminally dumb person can still fail to “smell the coffee” and wake up to reality. Scores of “Russian” liberals (who were very much represented in the media, entertainment, music, arts, etc.) have either emigrated (usually to Israel, Poland, the UK or one of the three Baltic statelets) or gone into a deep depression. The Russian legislature is passing law after law to make it harder to deliberately spread NATO lies and now rather than facing the support and admiration of “liberals” in Russia and abroad, doing so exposes you to fines and even incarceration. What used to be a fun lifestyle for the “Russian” liberals is gradually turning into a nightmare. The bottom line is this: wars polarize and that polarization makes it much easier to get a grasp of “who is really who”.
Right now large NATO forces are assembling in several locations to continue the current “lives for optics” operation in which the Ukrainians exchange lives en masse for the pleasure of twitting about “strategic advances” while gaining a few square kilometers here and there.
Russian missile strikes are continuing, mostly against power plants, military storage depots and production plants, command posts, etc. Since “Ze” has made the posting of videos of Russian attacks illegal, only the attacks on big cities/towns are featured in the social media. The Russian attacks on military command centers are almost never recorded or shown.
The Russians are also doing “something” to Starlink and Musk (whose “proud resistance” to the Pentagon lasted less than 24 hours!) even claimed that the Russians might take the entire system down. Right now Russian interference seems to be centered around the areas near the line of contact, but that could change anytime the Russian military command decides that the time has come. If things get even worse, western UAV and AWACS will experience “technical problems” next.
In what I call “Zone B” (i.e. the free world) the US is losing one ally after another, the latest one to defect to the Russian side is, of all countries, Saudi Arabia which first told Biden to get lost over OPEC+ and which now wants to join the BRICS. Last but not least, is the “something’s up” feeling. As of today, the Russians and Belorussians have created a joint force which is of great concern to the folks in Kiev and NATO. This creates a major headache for NATO planners who cannot allocate all their resources towards the lines of contact in the eastern Ukraine.
There are already two other facts that will have enormous importance in predicting the events that await us. One is the mobilization in Poland of 250,000 reservists, aged up to 55, which has led to thousands of men fleeing the country, a fact that is not reported on the “credible” TV stations of the West. It is easy to see that Poland will be the next to be thrown under the crusher. Thousands of mercenaries, many former soldiers of the Polish armed forces, have died in Ukraine. But there are plans for all sorts of things, whether by some Polish elite to occupy the Galician region, or by the Neocons to use Poland as the next guinea pig to “weaken” Russia. There is overwhelming evidence that Russia is also preparing a large force for some kind of operation, but I cannot even guess where this force might be used or how.
What I do know is that Russia has been preparing non-stop for a full-scale continental war since at least 2014. Defense Minister Shoigu has declared that next year Russia will add five new artillery divisions, eight bomber aviation regiments, one fighter regiment, three motor-rifle divisions, two air-assault divisions, and six army aviation brigades to the Russian armed forces. Russia has fully modernized her nuclear triad and those key weapons factories in Russia are now working 6 day- weeks with 3 shifts working non-stop. And, don’t forget about all those hypersonic weapons, which are becoming normal for Russia to use. Let’s just say that such firepower is total overkill for the Ukraine, so we can safely conclude that the Russian force planners did not have Ukraine, but NATO in mind when they decided what type of forces Russia should develop next. So far NATO has done a lot of tough talking, but it is pretty clear that few Europeans have the stomach for a full-scale continental war in Europe which will leave their country in ruins
As Ukraine runs dry, Russian weapons continue to arrive on the battle field. In the face of Ukraine’s two major fall offensives, Russian forces not only maintained their fighting capacity, after a partial mobilization calling up over 300,000 additional troops, Russia’s fighting capacity has actually expanded. In addition to the extra manpower, Russia is also bringing in a steady flow of new weaponry.
As the US scrapes together 90 restored T-72 tanks for Ukraine, and making promises of more western tanks from Germany and the US (which will not enter service till 2024), Russia has just delivered up to 200 brand new T-90 main battle tanks to the front.
While the New York Times discusses the dwindling number of arms and ammunition being sent by the West to Ukraine, it admits (citing Ukrainian officials) that Russia may be making at least 40 cruise missiles per month, though the number is likely much higher.
A steady stream of Geran-2 long-range kamikaze drones continue “arriving” in Ukraine even after Western analysts claimed Russia ran out of them. The cruise missiles and drones have been used to target Ukraine’s power grid while other long-range munitions as well as heavy artillery fire continue eliminating Ukrainian manpower and equipment from the battlefield. Production numbers across Russia’s vast, mostly state-owned military industrial complex remain elusive, but based on how Russia’s stockpiles were created specifically for large-scale, intense, and protracted military conflict and how Russia’s military has likewise been configured to conduct such military conflict, it is highly likely extensive preparations were also made years in advance for Russia’s military industrial complex to produce what is necessary for such military conflict. Only time will tell just how prepared Russia was and is to sustain combat operations against the combined resources of the US and its NATO allies. What is certain is that Ukraine’s fall offensives have ground to a halt while Russian forces are now once again inching across the battlefield.
“Russia’s armed forces are presently facing allied forces of the West,” Shoigu said in Moscow at a meeting of the top military commanders in Moscow. “The US and its allies supply the Kiev regime with weapons, train its soldiers, provide intelligence, dispatch advisers and mercenaries, and wage an information and sanctions war against us.” Shoigu said NATO countries have so far expended more than $97 billion on weapons deliveries, in order to make up for what he described as “considerable losses” inflicted on the Ukrainian military by Russian forces. NATO “staff officers, artillery personnel and other specialists are present in the zone of combat operations,” the defense minister added. More than 500 satellites are working to provide intelligence to the Ukrainian military, of which only 70 are purely military and the rest are dual-purpose, according to Shoigu.
Another thing that some in Western countries forget is that Russians have Asian patience. This is quite unlike Western impatience. Russia has not forgotten the Teutonic Knights in 1242, the Poles in the Time of Troubles (1598-1613), the Swedes at Poltava in 1709, Napoleon in 1812, the Franco-British in 1854-56, the Kaiser in 1914, Hitler in 1941, or Clinton in the 1990s. It is all listed and remembered, just as the Chinese have not forgotten the British-run genocide of the Chinese in the Opium Wars, just as the Indians have not forgotten British atrocities in the First Indian War of Independence (the British call it ‘The Indian Mutiny’) in 1857-8, just as the Iranians have not forgotten the overthrow of their democracy by the British in 1953 and then the torture-chambers of the Shah’s secret police.
The point is that you should not poke the bear. Like Asians, Eurasian Russians have huge patience, but they forget absolutely nothing. When Kiev started its massacres in the Ukraine in 2014, all was noted. After the Kerch Bridge bombing, that patience came to an end. The Russians have now appointed as Commander in Chief of what is now an anti-terrorist operation General Surovikin, nicknamed ‘General Armageddon’. This follows the announcement on 10 October by President Lukashenko that ‘with the degeneration of the situation on the borders of Belarus and the Ukraine, he and President Putin have decided on a joint regional army, to be formed in the next two days’. This follows the release of information that the Ukraine has grouped 15,000 soldiers on the border with Belarus, mining roads and blowing up bridges. Something is afoot.
There is no doubt that NATO is trying hard to escalate the war in the Ukraine. Just before the end of the year there were two drones strikes against a major Aerospace Forces base in Engels. The attacks were not very successful, but Russians did die when shrapnel hit a fuel truck which exploded. The importance of that attack was that Engels is located deep inside Russia. Then there were assorted small attacks against various Russian border posts and towns near the Russian border.
Dozens dead in Ukrainian strike on Russian troops – Moscow
Let’s first deal with the second headline. The first thing we need to say is that this was clearly a legal target under the laws of war: NATO hit Russian military personnel, and that is a fully legal target. However, if we look just a tad deeper, we realize that the HIMARS attack was clearly conducted by western “volunteers/advisors”, that is to say NATO personnel who took off their uniform and are under cover. Still, this is still yet another direct NATO attack on Russian soldiers.
But what about the rest of these strikes, especially those aimed at Russian territory (as it was before the liberation of Ukrainian regions)? So we need to ask a basic question: what is the goal of these strikes?
Let’s begin with some truisms:
First, none of these strikes will make ANY difference on the actual course of this war. Second, after each of these strikes many people will wonder what Russia will do about it. The precedent is the attack on the Crimean Bridge which gave Russia a pretext to switch off the lights in Banderastan. And yes, it was clearly only a pretext; as such massive strikes campaign cannot be quickly planned and executed in a few hours/days. The self-evident truth is that the Russians were quite ready to unleash their strikes long BEFORE the Crimean Bridge attack, but that they were more than happy to have that attack as a pretext (as opposed to a *reason*) to strike.
And, if you wonder, Russia is still conducting such strikes on a daily basis, including strikes involving hundreds of missiles! These follow on strikes are almost not reported in the western media because 1) “Ze” banned any images/videos of the results of these strikes and 2) reporting their true magnitude would undermine the official narrative (including the one about Russia running out of ammo). Still, NATO does not act just to show that it can act. There is a real, military, purpose behind these strikes. And it is not “just” to provoke Russia into some kind of response (not with tens and even hundreds of Russian missile strikes every day already taking place).
The war is already going on, the Russians are already fighting along a very long frontline, the Russian Aerospace Forces are already striking targets over the entire Ukraine, so what is there more to provoke/trigger?
I submit that there is only one thing which the Russians have not done yet, and that is the full-scale combined arms operation the Russian General Staff is obviously preparing. And since this major offensive is almost certain to happen, the only thing which such NATO strikes could affect is the timing of the attack. And since there is no way that these NATO (pinprick) strikes could delay the Russian offensive, their only possibly goal would be to make it happen sooner.
Why would NATO want the Russian offensive sooner rather than later? In all its other actions, the AngloZionists have tried to draw out this war for as long as possible, so why would they want to make the Russians attack sooner rather than later? This is because the Russian General Staff is waiting for all the “ducks to be lined” up before attacking. Thus by trying to force the Russians into a premature attack date, NATO is, very logically, trying to prevent all the said “ducks” to be “lined up”. In other words, NATO is trying to force the hand of the Russian General Staff by increasing the pressure on the Kremlin to “finally take action”.
So how effective are these NATO efforts?
Here we need to mention a deep cultural difference between the Russian society and the western one: most Russians have a much better understanding of war than the folks in the West. This is true for civilians all the way through the generals. There are many reasons for that, but just to name a few:
Many Russians have military training (basic or more advanced). Almost every Russian has lost family members during WWII and, therefore, know how ugly war is. Russian culture, from books to movies, is chock full of war stories, and not of the Tom Clancy type, but the real thing. Wars in Chechnya, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Georgia, Syria, Armenia and many more conflicts have “educated” the Russian society about the painful realities of war.
NATO is trying really hard to force the Russians into a “NATO schedule” and out of their planned schedule. An added beneficial side-effect from such “for optics only” strikes is to give the morons in Congress a rationale to put even more money into the US MIC.
As for forcing Russia to attack in suboptimal conditions, that won’t happen. Neither Putin, nor Shoigu, nor Gerasimov nor Surovikin are the types who will respond to hysterics with “for optics only” actions. And this also goes for the entire General Staff.
A major combined arms offensive this Spring, but it will happen when Putin decides it, not when NATO wants it. Right now, the Russian meat grinder is inflicting such losses on the Ukraine that it really makes no sense for the Russians to stop it. But, sooner or later, even this will eventually yield diminishing marginal returns and, by then, the Russian forces (there are three of them around the Ukraine) will be fully ready, trained, equipped and poised to attack.
The big unknown (to us, the Russians probably already know) is what NATO will do when this offensive happens. You can be sure that the “best” minds (relatively speaking) in the US are working on the following task: how to trigger a continental war without directly and officially involving the United States?
I don’t have an answer to this; your guess is as good as mine.
“Strictly speaking, we haven’t started anything yet.” — Vladimir Putin
The war in Ukraine is not going to end in a negotiated settlement. The Russians have already made it clear that they don’t trust the United States, so they’re not going to waste their time in a pointless gabfest. What the Russians are going to do is pursue the only option that is available to them: They are going to obliterate the Ukrainian Army, reduce a large part of the country to rubble, and force the political leadership to comply with their security demands. It’s a bloody and wasteful course of action, but there’s really no other option. Putin is not going to allow NATO to place its hostile army and missile sites on Russia’s border.
… Recently there was an exceptional series of meetings Putin has held over the past couple of weeks with the entire military and national security establishment. In Moscow, the Russian leader met with all of his top military commanders and national security officials including Sergei Surovikan, the general he put in charge of the Ukrainian operation. Putin subsequently flew to Minsk with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for exchanges with the Belarus political and military leadership. Then it was onward to meet with the leaders of the two republics, Donetsk and Lugansk that were incorporated via referenda into the Russian Federation last autumn.
It is impossible to avoid concluding that these back-to-back meetings, barely covered in the Western press, portend a new, near- or medium-term military initiative in Ukraine. “Something very big is on the way.”
Conclusion: a planet divided for the foreseeable future
What we are seeing is the creation of two parts of our planet: the AngloZionist Hegemony (in which only the USA and Israel have agency, the rest are colonies, occupied countries, volunteer slaves, etc.) and the Multipolar Free World. While the two blocks are not technically at war with each other, in reality they already very much are. Russia and Iran are bearing most of the military burden while other free countries quietly try to either stay out and keep a low profile or, even more quietly, assist China and rest of the Multipolar Free World to prevail economically. Of course, the AngloZionist Hegemony is using every means it has to subvert not only Russia, but also China, Iran and any other country daring to declare even a modicum of sovereignty. The eventual and inevitable outcome of this confrontation is not in doubt, at least not to those who are aware of reality. This is why it is absolutely crucial for Russia to turn up the pain dial steadily but SLOWLY. I thank God that Putin is a very careful type who fully understands that there are no “quick-fix solutions” to denazifying and demilitarizing the AngloZionist Hegemony. And yes, Russia will continue to unilaterally and gradually rotating up the pain dial.
The Rockefeller Empire has bet their future on the belief that the only way their Empire can continue to operate is to subjugate the “World Island” – Eurasia to “regime change” Putin and Xi and to ultimately Balkanise the whole of Eurasia, each banana republic to be “led” by a US puppet dictator. This wet dream “strategy” is derived entirely from the family. Such actions had been repeatedly inflicted by the US on practically every state of Latin America and on Global South countries over many decades. The family believes that the subjugation of Eurasia is the only way to resurrect the dead corpse of Bretton-Woods and the Petrodollar and to force the rest of the world to continue funneling their Real World valuable commodities and products to the USA for free. There is NO OTHER WAY that the family can save its Empire!
Given the advanced state of decay of the US and the unstoppable rise of China and Russia militarily, industrially, economically and socially, there is zero prospect of the USA prevailing. There are only two possible outcomes: either the USA backs down or there will be global nuclear Armageddon. There is nothing in between. The European industrial sectors are poised to collapse from energy starvation. The original contracted price for Russian piped gas to Germany was $280 per 1000 cubic meters vs current market price of around $2000 and the EU is now paying 5 to 6 times what it paid a year earlier.
Once the BRICS+ currency arrangements and financial systems, which bypass the USD, get up and running, there will be massive flight of away from US bonds and securities and the massive international repatriation of US dollars back to the US, which will result in hyperinflation and devaluation of the US dollar, resulting in their inability to afford any imports. Along with the de-industrialised condition of the USA, resulting in no significant domestic manufacturing, that all spells extreme poverty for the United States.
In short: US industrial, economic and social decay, all entirely self inflicted over the past several decades, have led to the decline of the USA as a functional society and hence to the impending loss of its unipolar global hegemony. This is a situation that the megalomaniacal “indispensable nation, shining beacon on a hill” ideologues, and its master-David Rockefeller Jnr-simply cannot accept.
In summary: any initial hopes by the US banking/financial sector that they might benefit from the Ukrainian war have at best resulted in the USD remaining neutral so far, but will inevitably lead to the accelerated collapse of the USD.
The USA is screwed. Get over it.
