Intelligence Blindness in Tel Aviv

Israel is facing an intelligence blind spot surrounding Hezbollah’s current structure and capabilities. The movement has deliberately returned to the tactics of the 1980s, emphasizing secrecy and compartmentalized organization in both military and security structures. The Israeli army’s difficulties in assessing Hezbollah’s condition stem from several factors. One major issue lies in determining whether Israeli airstrikes have actually achieved their intended objectives. During previous confrontations, Israeli military leadership frequently announced the assassination of specific Hezbollah figures immediately after confirming successful strikes. Those operations often targeted clearly identified military or security facilities. The pattern today appears markedly different. Israeli bombardment has repeatedly struck institutions that are publicly known, including the financial association, Al-Nour radio station, and al Manar television network. Other strikes have targeted residential buildings or apartments that were already included in Israel’s old target bank used during the September 2024 aggression. In many cases, the targets appear to involve locations long considered compromised from a security perspective or individuals who are not military figures. Israel is suffering from intelligence blindness – Hezbollah took the necessary precautions and security measures. The proof is that they announced more than 10 times that they had assassinated Hezbollah leaders – and every one of those claims turned out to be false. As a Hezbollah official said: “Now they boast about killing a single fighter, “They were preparing a ground war and planned to surprise us. Instead, the resistance launched a preemptive strike that surprised them. The magic turned against the magician, a Hezbollah official said.  Hezbollah had already detected signs that Israel was preparing a larger military move: “The information that reached us, field monitoring along the border, and the announcement of the enemy army’s military mobilization all clearly showed that it was no longer satisfied with the daily aggression that has continued for 15 months. It was preparing to surprise Lebanon with a new invasion and occupation. We therefore carried out a preemptive strike that thwarted the element of surprise. Instead, we surprised them and resumed resistance after our patience had run out.” Israeli ministers had been debating for hours inside the political-security cabinet whether to launch a preemptive strike against Lebanon before rocket fire began. The timing of Hezbollah’s attack effectively disrupted those deliberations. Even Israel’s own defense minister indirectly this sequence. “We decided to carry out a preemptive strike against Hezbollah, but it preceded us by attacking Israel.”

For Hezbollah, the incident signals more than tactical success. It reflects intelligence capabilities that anticipate Israeli decision-making, thereby enabling the preparation of defensive measures in advance. From Day 5, Israeli forces have invaded southern Lebanon with troops and tanks. As the IDF moves across the barren landscape of southern Lebanon, the Resistance ambushes them, time and time again. The IDF retreats. Then comes back- to get killed, wounded and destroyed. Today is day 10 of the war, and over the past 4days, Israel has lost more than 12 tanks and APCs, in addition to taking more than 100 casualties.  In short, Israel cannot achieve its objectives. Its army is broken in more ways than one can count.

The Resistance Reorganizes

Beyond the battlefield, Hezbollah has also reinforced its internal security apparatus. In Beirut’s southern suburb – the movement’s primary stronghold – specialized security units are operating under intense pressure to maintain stability despite ongoing Israeli bombardment. These units are responsible for preventing sabotage, espionage, or criminal activity that could exploit the chaos created by war.  They also protect residential neighborhoods and the homes of displaced families, ensuring basic order in areas repeatedly targeted by Israeli airstrikes. The scale of these efforts has grown significantly during the current confrontation, placing much of the burden of local security on Hezbollah’s own structures.

Eastern Front flares: Israeli Airborne Raid Collapses in the Bekaa

While clashes continued along the border front, the Islamic Resistance demonstrated high intelligence and operational capabilities, precisely tracking enemy movements from Manara to Markaba and thwarting attempts to establish new positions, employing kamikaze drones and guided missiles to inflict direct hits on enemy barracks and personnel. At the same time, Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa briefly became an active battlefield after an Israeli airborne operation near the town of Nabi Chit unraveled under fire.  Several Israeli helicopters crossed from the Syrian direction late Friday, inserting a ground force in the mountainous area before advancing toward the town’s eastern outskirts. The infiltrating unit was quickly detected by resistance fighters, sparking a firefight near Nabi Chit’s cemetery. Israeli aircraft launched heavy strikes across surrounding hills to cover the withdrawal, while resistance units responded with artillery and rocket fire targeting the clash zone and suspected evacuation routes. On the ground, the ‘second front’ of the conflict is widening: Israeli air and ground raids on the Lebanese town of Nabi Chit in the eastern Bekaa Valley.  By early Saturday morning, the helicopters and fighter jets had withdrawn, highlighting how the confrontation between Israel and the Islamic Resistance is expanding beyond Lebanon’s traditional southern front. Taken together, these developments suggest that Lebanon is entering a new phase of confrontation rather than experiencing a short-lived military escalation. By entering the battle directly and imposing new battlefield equations, Hezbollah has effectively secured a seat – whether formally acknowledged or not – at the negotiating table that will define the region’s next phase. And with Iran’s regional influence expanding, Hezbollah’s position within the emerging balance appears stronger than ever. Beirut and other areas have also been getting bombed from the air, with whole buildings leveled. When CIA agent Jolani stated that he would enter Lebanon to fight Hezbollah, Iran informed Damascus then to expect missiles and more from Iran. After that, the head-chopper went silent. But, the future of the Jolani/ISIS/Al Qaeda government in Syria is looking bleak.

Hezbollah in the last 7 days of war after exercising maximum patience since November 2024: This data is till the 10^th. Hezbollah joined on the 3^rd day.

Total Operations: 153
Daily Average: 22 operations
• Inside Occupied Palestinian lands: 96
• Inside Lebanese territory: 57
• Depth of targeting: 160 km

Targets
• Military bases: 36
• Cities and settlements: 22
• Border sites: 22
• Military barracks: 8
• Newly established sites: 15
• Drones: 3
• Repelling ground advance attempts: 39
• Repelling landing operations: 2
• Military infrastructure: 6

4 IRAQ Joins

The Iraqi Resistance groups have joined the fight.  Not only are they targeting Israel proper, but they are destroying any US/Israeli base, along with CIA/Mossad/M16 assets in Iraq, from north to south- with Kurdistan and Erbil being the main targets. 100s of US/British/Israeli troops and agents are trapped in this ring of fire, with no hopes of escaping. On 5 March, US helicopters air-dropped Israeli and US Special forces troops into a desert area near the city of Najaf in central Iraq. An Iraqi army unit approached the unknown forces, believing them to be US troops. The unknown group fired on the Iraqis, killing one soldier and injuring two others. A firefight ensued, in which many of these soldiers were killed and captured, and subsequently handed over to Iran!! Iraqi security said that “almost certain information indicates that it is an Israeli force,” adding that “the force has installed jamming and tracking radars to monitor drones and missiles launched from Iraq and Iran.”

This is significant, because it was not the Iraqi resistance, but the official Iraq Army-which means the Iraqi government. This means that Iraq has now openly and officially sided with Iran against Israel and the US. A game-changing moment.

5 RIP – Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Bahrein, Kuwait

Iran going after US assets in Dubai is a masterful strategic play – linked to destroying sheltering US military personnel and/or clandestine CIA digs. All those tacky Dubai symbols of bling bling opulence are on fire; Burj Khalifa, Burj Al Arab, Palm Jumeirah. About 88% of the population of Dubai is foreign. Apart from being the world capital of money laundering, this is most of all a special economic zone with a flag, now running the risk of a bank run. After all, the UAE does not produce anything – as in productive capitalism; it’s a tax-free service economy built around bling bling opulence and safety (now gone). Aviation is 27% of Dubai’s GDP – and 18% of the UAE’s. Dubai airport in the dark is an absolute disaster. Mega-airlines like Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways – complete with their mega-airports – are key vehicles/nodes of the global transportation matrix. The definitive exhibit is the implosion of the Dubai bling bling dream – much more than the devastation imposed on US 5th Fleet-related interests in Bahrain and even a ballistic missile destroying the $1.1. billion AN/FPS-132 phased array radar at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The kings of Bahrein and Kuwait along with the wealthy elite of these states have fled to Saudi Arabia Bahrein’s population is more than 89 % Shia. With Iran particularly hitting Bahrein hard, it may be a possibility that Bahrein will be the first to fall. Kuwait will most likely end up back as a province of Iraq-its historical position.

Dubai as a safe haven is no more.  Its role as a money-laundering center, is over. Money is fleeing Dubai like a tsunami. Western expats are gone or going, with most never to return. Property prices in Dubai are collapsing. A bigger problem is building up beneath the surface, and no one has noticed. The immigrant labor force-about several million in number across the UAE, Qatar and other Gulf states. Their bosses have fled the country. No salaries paid. They can’t leave as their passports are held by their bosses. Add to that, food is running out in the UAE and Qatar, since this import 90% of their food. No imports. Food is running out. What happens when several million of these workers from India and Pakistan conduct a protest march, and the Indian -run Emirati police force has to confront them. Obviously, they will sympathize with the protestors. Dubai, as a safe haven and “Sin Central” is no more. The illusion has burst. The UAE has so far refrained from responding to Iran, but Abu Dhabi is thinking of freezing billions of dollars ​of Iranian assets held in the country. Such a move could trigger an even stronger retaliation from Iran. For years, the United Arab Emirates has functioned as a financial hub for Iran, including wealthy individuals, businesses, and accounts associated with the IRGC. The UAE has been a ‘Switzerland’ of sorts – welcoming capital from around the world with little judgement, including happily doing business with Russian commodities traders and bankers following the invasion of Ukraine. Asian ultra-wealthy families are re-evaluating investments and relocation plans connected to Dubai as the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupts confidence in the Gulf financial hub, the UAE hosted about $700 billion in overseas financial assets in 2024, while family offices in Dubai alone control more than $1.2 trillion. That said, the UAE is also carefully weighing the risks of an asset freeze – as they’re concerned that it may trigger prolonged retaliation by Iran against the Emirati territory and their critical energy infrastructure. It would also damage their ability to attract and retain capital from other sensitive countries such as Russia. This is the most important nonmilitary lever the U.A.E. have to play against the Iranians, but it will destroy what little credibility the UAE has left.

6 Russia & China’s Roles

The Iran war however, is all about a bigger U.S. play: Control of strategic chokepoints, and of energy transit more generally, so as to deny China access to energy markets and so to curtail its growth. Russia and China meanwhile will be working in the shade to ensure Iran’s defense network remains intact.  Now for the role of Russia. The focus should be on the Astrakhan-Tehran air corridor, crammed with secret cargo flights.  Cargo contents include components for air defense systems; radar guidance modules; hydraulic systems for missile launchers; long-range detection radar modules. On top of it, under a secret protocol, Russia is supplying Iran with state-of-the-art electronic warfare, including an export version of the Krasukha-4IR, capable of jamming the radar systems of US drones. Add to it that Iran will soon deploy full-fledged S-400 batteries – which will allow it to control as much as 70% of Iranian airspace. As the war against Iran continues to escalate, Russia finds itself in a powerful position to deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which has kowtowed to the United States and allowed the US to dominate militarily the Persian Gulf on behalf of Israel, and India, which has taken advantage of their long friendship with Russia to engage in a disgustingly abject act of sycophancy with Israel at the expense of fellow BRICS member Iran. Russia has delivered a firm diplomatic message to both

7 Two-Faced India Cornered

Then there is India. Modi’s recent trip to Israel was ill-timed, coming three days before Israel and the US attacked Iran. Although India is one of the founders of BRICS, he made a big show of elevating the India-Israel relationship from a “strategic partnership” to a “Special Strategic Partnership for Peace, Innovation, and Prosperity.” Modi signed 16 agreements and announcement of 11 joint initiatives. The war against Iran has given Russia tremendous leverage over India. the Iran war has significantly boosted demand for Russian energy resources, positioning Russia as a “reliable supplier” of oil and gas. Russia, instead of leaving India to sleep in the bed it made with Israel, highlighted its readiness to support India, but at a cost. For instance, earlier in March (around March 4), sources indicated Russia was prepared to divert oil cargoes (e.g., ~9.5 million barrels near Indian waters) . Amid the surge in demand for Russia’s Urals crude, Russia hit India with a firm, but diplomatic, reminder of the cost of betraying a friend. Prior to the attack on Iran, Russia sold oil to India with deep discounts ($10-13 below Brent pre-conflict). While promising to help India compensate for its loss of Persian Gulf oil, Russia informed Modi that India would have to pay a premium of $4-5 over Brent for March/April deliveries. Modi is going to reconsider the agreements he made with Israel. Especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for six months or more.

6 The Hormuz Closure

Iran has effectively closed the narrow waterway, by using asymmetric warfare tactics. Besides Iran’s conventional navy, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country’s armed forces, has its own naval units that continue to hound and attack shipping in the Persian Gulf. The United States has decimated Iran’s conventional navy since February 28.

The US military said on March 11 that it had sunk 60 Iranian vessels. But those losses have not reduced Iran’s threat to shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Iran’s Naval Doctrine

Iran changed its naval doctrine after the US Navy sank around half of Iran’s conventional fleet in a single day in April 1988. the incident showed Tehran that symmetrical naval warfare against a superpower was a losing proposition. What followed was a decades-long pivot toward asymmetric tools such as fast-attack boats, shore-based anti-ship missiles, naval mines, midget submarines, and, more recently, unmanned surface vessels (USVs) configured as floating bombs. Iran institutionalized this split into two separate navies, symmetrical and asymmetrical forces. The Iranian Navy, as part of the regular military, maintained a conventional fleet for prestige and occasional long-range deployments. But the real warfighting instrument was the IRGC’s navy units, which were purpose-built for harassment and denial operations in the Persian Gulf’s shallow, island-cluttered waters, where geography compresses distances and partly neutralizes the advantages of a superior conventional force. Over the years, the IRGC’s naval force has released footage of underground storage facilities housing fast-attack boats, some likely configured as unmanned surface vessels or suicide boats. Iranian drone capabilities near the islands of Qeshm, Hengam, and Larak — positioned close to the main shipping lanes — as the more immediate threat, not the mines that the US accuses Iran of laying. IRGC forces may, for now, be allowing Iranian- and Chinese-linked vessels to pass. That said, the strait remains paralyzed for broader commercial traffic, risking energy shocks across the world that, if prolonged, could spill over into financial markets. The Strait of Hormuz for all practical purposes is closed – except for Russian, Chinese, and vessels from friendly” nations. At least 20% of global oil needs are not moving anywhere. Qatar’s entire LNG production is off line – with no resumption in sight. As storage tanks get full, oil production is getting shut down. If gas and oil stops flowing for a month, all bets are off for the global economy.

So, it’s no wonder that it took only 4 days of the war on Iran for the global financial system to go completely bonkers. $3.2 trillion evaporated in a matter of 4 days – and counting. By lasering on US interests across the GCC as legitimate targets – and not only military bases – Iran set a time bomb. This is a direct attack on the petrodollar – to the silent delight of Beijing. And then, there’s Vladimir Putin, just casually, almost like an afterthought, announcing there may not be any Russian gas to be sold to the EU after all. This is a desperate war to save the petrodollar. An energy powerhouse like Iran trading outside the petrodollar is the ultimate anathema. In any case, no ships are even trying to approach Hormuz because Lloyd’s of London is not issuing insurance policies. In the past 10 days, Iran has hit many oil tankers and other ships trying to cross the Straits. Before February 28, roughly 138 vessels transited the Strait on an average day. Right now, that number is 2. The result:  sitting at anchor in open Gulf waters, 147 container ships trapped inside the Persian Gulf with nowhere to exit, and every major container line, Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, suspending operations. The East-West Pipeline across Saudi Arabia (Petroline) can carry around 7.7 million bpd, and the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline in the UAE adds another million, for a total of some 8.7 million. It still leaves a shortfall of 12 million bpd. Which means the world is still staring at a net shortfall of around 12million barrels a day with nowhere to go. Add to this around 3 million bpd of refined products. This brings the global shortfall to 15 million bpd. There is no adequate alternative. But these routes are insufficient to compensate for a full shutdown, and are themselves vulnerable to sabotage. For the first time in history the oil has stopped flowing. And it isn’t just oil. Qatar’s LNG production halt, combined with the effective Hormuz closure, has roiled the market. Asia is getting hit first given its dependence on Qatari LNG, but Europe is feeling the secondary shock as Asian buyers outbid Europeans for every available spot cargo. Qatar produces of the world’s helium, used in semiconductor manufacturing. That’s another chokepoint nobody was tracking until the drones arrived.

How the disruption of oil, LNG and urea exports will cascade through the global economy.

Let’s look at the three commodity categories most exposed to such a disruption: crude oil and refined petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and urea, the nitrogen fertilizer upon which modern agriculture depends. Together, these three flows underpin not just energy markets but global food security, industrial production, and the fiscal stability of dozens of nations. Then, there is urea. The region supplies 40% of the globe’s urea. From Urea, fertilizer is made. Grocery prices follow energy prices with a lag of roughly six to eight weeks. The fertilizer that grows the food, the diesel that moves it, the plastic that packages it, the refrigeration that preserves it… all of it is downstream of this. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from an average of 140 to just 2 per day. It is, as of right now, essentially closed.  Without insurance, no shipowner will send a vessel through. It’s not the missiles that closed the Strait. It’s the actuarial tables. Over 1,500 tankers and container ships are trying to get in. Add another 170 container ships, plus many more oil and gas tankers   are trapped inside the Persian Gulf, unable to exit.  Every major container line, has suspended operations.  

Iran earned somewhere between $46 and $65 billion   in 2024-2025… but even a crippled Iran with a contested strait has shown it can inflict global economic costs that vastly exceed its own. The Persian Gulf is not merely an important trade route — it is a structural dependency baked into the global economy over seven decades. The simultaneous disruption of oil, LNG, and urea flows from the region constitute a crisis of exceptional severity: an energy shock, an industrial shock, and a food security crisis arriving together, reinforcing one another, and challenging the capacity of governments, international institutions, and markets to respond.

The biggest story of the day is that Iran has muscled its way into both cowing and overpowering the US Navy into submission in the Strait of Hormuz.The supposedly most powerful navy in history is admitting they cannot retain freedom of navigation through one of the most important maritime choke points in the world. The reason is simple and about Iran’s ability to take out US carriers, though it applies to any US ship. Most Iranian anti-ship assets have a 300km max range. As long as US ships stay out of this range, they have relative safety. But the closer they move into the kill zone, the greater the risk becomes. At 200-300km range they risk anti-ship ballistics and longer-range cruise missiles. At 25-50km they risk a much wider variety of smaller, cheaper anti-ship cruise missiles and drones. At 30km or so, they risk Iranian naval drones. Iranian military commander General Fadavi. Not a single American vessel is within 700 kilometers of Iran. The US Navy has fled because it knows we have a special plan for sinking their aircraft carrier. Today he also boasted that Iran is only the second country on earth after Russia to possess “underwater missiles”, or high-speed torpedoes, which he says go in excess of 100m/s. His description of it narrows it down to the Soviet Shkval torpedo, which reaches nearly 400 km/ph using a highly advanced form of ‘super cavitation’. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln has been hit with drones and missiles. It suffered serious damage which rendered it inoperable. Most likely, its landing deck was destroyed- thus no take-offs and landings.

Iran is carrying out an average of four waves of missile and drone attacks per day. The US and Israel have grossly underestimated Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles. In the event that Trump tries to declare victory and disengage, Iran will not. Iran will continue to pummel US military facilities in the Persian Gulf and Israel’s military and infrastructure.  Iran will not end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until the US and Israel agree to Iran’s terms. These include the lifting of all sanctions against Iran, the removal of US military installations from the Persian Gulf and reparations for the damage inflicted on Iran during the course of this war. The strategy is entirely reliant on exhausting US and Israeli resources — bleeding them economically, dragging the war home to their populations, making it deeply unpopular on both sides. There’s a military term for this kind of victory. Pyrrhic victory. You win. But the cost of winning is so catastrophic — you wish you hadn’t fought at all. That is Iran’s entire strategy in one sentence. Trump will face the dilemma of accepting Iran’s terms (a humiliating outcome) or continuing a war of attrition while the while Iran launches at least three waves of missiles every day. The pressure on Trump will be enormous as long as Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz… US allies, particularly in Asia, will be pleading to an end of the war, and the domestic economic picture will worsen. Trump is trapped and does not appear to have a politically viable exit ramp.

9 Derivatives & The Coming Financial Implosion

Most people don’t understand what derivatives are.  Unlike stocks and bonds, a derivative is not an investment in anything real. Rather, a derivative is a legal bet on the future value or performance of something else. Just as one can bet on the horse, or the outcome of a sports game, financiers in London and New York make multi-billion-dollar bets on how interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and share prices will perform in the future; or on what credit instruments are likely to default. Financial derivatives have grown from a standing start in the late 1980s to a $4 quadrillion industry by 2025. The world’s GNP stands at about $100 trillion; this is more than 40 times more than the global GNP figure.  We are talking about an amount of money that is absolutely mind-blowing. One thing is clear: derivatives have transformed the financial system. It has never been so easy to move money from country to country and market to market, nor move it so quickly, nor to take on so much risk in the blink of an eye. Derivatives have fundamentally altered the way markets work. In the space of less than 40 years they have become integral to the whole elaborate structure of international finance.

Derivatives are not bad in themselves. Used properly and wisely, they are an undoubted benefit. It is when they are used improperly and unwisely that they become the equivalent of a bomb. Think of derivatives as a loaded gun. You can use it in self-defense or murder. Unfortunately, the temptations to use it for the latter purpose are immense. This worries many people in the finance industry. What concerns them is the growing fragility of the financial system they have created. Derivatives have built interconnections between markets that never existed 40 years ago; they have woven international finance into a single fantastically tight and complex tapestry, yet the fabric seems thinner than ever. Says a former central banker who has had to grapple with the reality of bank collapses and the threat of systemic financial failure; “derivatives have the potential to create an unprecedented financial disaster”. It could happen. If it does, it will almost certainly be in a way that no one has foreseen. It may be triggered by an extraordinary event that nobody in their wildest dreams had imagined. But more likely it will involve nothing more remarkable than the sort of problems that regularly crop up on the markets, only this time the particular combination of events will be so unusual, so unexpected, the results will be lethal.

In times of crisis, the financial system reacts in unpredictable ways. The more suddenly the crisis strikes, the worse the trauma is likely to be. Investors, caught off-guard and protecting their own individual interests, will react in all the wrong ways; governments and financial regulators will be confused and paralyzed, perhaps making mistakes that worsen the situation; the crisis will spread like lightning across countries and markets, faster than anyone can control until suddenly a local problem has become a global disaster. But not all such blunders become public knowledge. As everyone knows, banking is to a great extent a confidence trick. Banks only last as long as their depositors believe that their deposits are safe, so bankers see it as a duty to reassure the public even if that means misleading them. It is normally not until a bank is in direct trouble that the public ever gets to hear about it. Just because the financial system did not crack in 2008 and 2019/20, does not mean that a somewhat bigger shock could not create the ultimate financial nightmare – what the bankers call systemic risk – because if we can be sure of anything about the financial system is that something will eventually go wrong. It is not a question of if, but when. These past financial eruptions are but a precursor to the “big one”, a reverse-leverage disintegration of the entire financial system in a matter of days, or hours.

Today, we have the biggest financial bubble in history. Every financial institution in the world is bankrupt, or close to it. Global financial turnover is about $6 trillion a day, with obligations based in this financial system. Most of these obligations are invisible, but they make themselves visible when somebody tries to collect. It’s like a gambling debt. It’s only when the guy comes to collect it, then it becomes visible. Only then is the family aware of what’s going on. In a chain reaction, we find people rushing to try and collect, not because Wall Street is collapsing, but because the derivative market is collapsing. Banks and speculators are trying to save themselves. Within a period of as short as 3 working days, the banks will not only collapse, but also the entire financial system will vaporize. It will be an implosion, because of the ratio of unpayable debts coming due at once, hitting the virtually non-existent margin of assets to cover it. For example: Look at your wallet. How much of your money is in electronic form? How much of your money is actually cash? How many dollars/euros/pounds do you withdraw from the bank, and deposit – money- as opposed to electronic deposits and electronic withdrawals? How much credit that you rely upon, comes in the form of electronic credit as opposed to cash? What does that electronic credit mean? It means you have a banking institution, which guarantees the conversion of that electronic credit into money. Now, what happens if that institution suddenly, no longer functions? You are there with a card; it is no good. Now, what happens in about 3- or 5-days’ time at the local supermarket? They are functioning on electronic money. What happens when the current stock of groceries runs out – and there will be a rush for groceries? What happens? They can’t get more groceries. The supply chain breaks down. Institutions break down. In modern economies, people do not realize how vulnerable they are. We no longer have local farms. We depend upon credit, especially electronic credit, and local stores and we get by through the week, largely on the basis of electronic credit. What happens if that system of electronic credit breaks down? Then you actually get conditions of mass starvation throughout the world. The whole system of commerce comes to a standstill.  And that is what we are facing, unless something is done to deal with that. The weakest part of the system lies in the interbank payment system (details of this will be explained in another issue) that, in turn, depends upon the extent of losses incurred by the major players in the market.

JP Morgan Chase

To give an example: JP Morgan Chase has an equity capital of $ 178 billion; assets (loans) of $2.1 trillion. And a derivative book of $78.7 trillion! This was as of December 31, 2010. That’s 15 years ago. The picture is worse today.  In other words, its equity capital is equal to .24% of its derivative book. A loss equivalent to just .25% of its derivative portfolio would wipe out JP Morgan Chase’s entire equity! The ratios are slightly better for the other large international banks. That tiny margin between existence and disintegration is a dominant feature of the international financial system today, and this is what has financiers, the regulators, and the politicians terrified. One false move and poof! The whole thing blows. Since then, the numbers and bank balance sheets have gone worse. Two Rothschild banks are on the verge of implosion – Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo. And Bank of America is not far behind these two. What is actually happening, is that the productive base of the world economy is being ‘sucked to death’ by the pyramid –shaped financial bubble. This is most clearly seen by the effect of the massive debt accumulation, which is causing farms and industries, and even entire governments, to shut down. The whole financial bubble depends, directly and indirectly, on squeezing” increasing amounts of income flows from the material base of the world economy. This was the background for the call of globalization and free trade by New York and London. When nations around the world subscribe to these policies, they leave their economies wide open to be looted by these two networks. Both London and New York are desperately trying to prop up the financial bubble, and it needed to “open” the economies of various nations, in order to facilitate its looting of these economies. When these nations resist, their leaders are destabilized by “political scandals”, or worse, when the entire nation itself is targeted for destabilization.

America is very close to bankruptcy. It survives only by the tyrannical use of raw political, financial, and military power, to exact tribute from much of the rest of an already looted world. The world has been pumping roughly $3 billion per day into the US, in order to keep America going. Now, they have become very tired. The current economic and financial crisis is not something which might happen. It is something that is already underway. What we do not know at this stage is that when the already existing, hopeless bankruptcy of the system will explode into the streets – is whether this will occur as a single event, to as a cumulative effect of a chain-reaction series of crisis, ricocheting around the world.  Whenever these two networks find their economic, financial, and political systems threatened, they react with VIOLENCE. In other words, when they cannot control the world by means of their financial and economic systems, they use the desperate action of the FIST to destroy and crush anybody who might be in their way. We are now in such a period. We have the worst finance and monetary crisis in modern history.  While the financial elite are bailing out of the stock markets, fools like us are persuaded to buy yet more shares in the same markets. With every passing day, the demands for austerity coming from the financiers of the Anglo-American empire grow louder. Governments worldwide are being told that they must slash their budgets, cut their services, and shred their social safety nets, and cast their populations to the wolves, all in the name of “fiscal responsibility.” “All available resources must be funneled to us,” the financier’s shriek. “We need the money, and the people must fend for themselves!” At the same time, the financier networks that are making these inhuman demands are continuing to loot the planet through a variety of open and hidden bailout schemes, currency manipulations, and derivatives scams – in short, these sanctimonious and hypocritical bastards continue to steal us all blind – destroying the basis for our very existence. The entire trans-Atlantic financial crash is in full swing, and this collapse is gaining more and more momentum.  Faced with indebtedness and derivatives exposures amounting to the trillions, Wall Street and London have only two cards up their sleeve: further money printing and the theft of depositors’ funds, and expropriation of investors bonds and stockholders. This can only be described as criminal. The more this crash expands the more human lives it will cost.

The actual root of the problem is that people fell for the lie that money is actual wealth, and an entire financial system has been built on that lie.  But money is not something which has a self-evident value. Value depends upon the creative powers of mankind, to make better the conditions of life of mankind. As the system is tearing apart, other countries may try to insulate themselves from this by embracing capital controls. The dollar has no peers. But the system that it anchors is cracking. Panic among Wall Street and City of London bankers is evident just barely below the surface. When financial markets are crashing, wars inevitably follow. That is even more reason to keep a close eye on events in the Middle East.  As external players compete to try to grab the energy resources of the area, all it would take is a spark to detonate World War Three!

10 Iran under its new leader Mojtaba Khomeini

Ultimatums to the US

The new Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, 57, chosen by the Assembly of Experts, so far has not spoken a single word in public. He is the son of Khomeini. His entire family was wiped out in the bombing of their house on Day 1 of this war. Born in 1969, he joined the army in its war against Iraq, in 1986. He is a hard-liner, and doesn’t not care for diplomacy and negotiations with the West. Very close to the IRGC.The IRGC is speaking for him. From the start, Mojtaba was the preferred candidate to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei, the man who planned in meticulous detail how to break the Empire’s back. The IRGC is now showing to the whole planet, especially the Global South, what was lying behind the “restraint” advised by Khamenei for years.

No Negotiations – No Ceasefire

Trump wanted a ceasefire on Day 1, communicated via Italian diplomatic channels to Iran. Twice, Trump sent out feelers to Iran for a ceasefire/negotiation. The Iranian response is encapsulated here: “Negotiations with the United States are no longer on the agenda.” Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf: “We are absolutely NOT seeking a ceasefire. We believe the aggressor must be struck in the mouth so that it learns a lesson and never again even thinks of attacking dear Iran.”

• These are only some of the most prominent conditions for a possible ceasefire – assuming Tehran will ever trust the United States to comply: Removal of all sanctions against Iran and release of all of Iran’s frozen assets.
• Recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium on its own soil.
• Full compensation for the damages caused by the imposed war
• Extradition of Iranian 5th columnists abroad, and the end of orchestrated media campaigns against Tehran.
• No attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon or Houthis in Yemen.
• The dismantling of all US military bases in the Middle East.
• Let that slowly sink in. Here we have Iran telling the self-described, hyperbolic most powerful military in the history of the world to essentially surrender.

The U.S. intelligence-led assassination of the Supreme Leader has proved to be a cardinal error. Rather than precipitate a collapse of morale, it led instead to massive outpourings of support for the Islamic Republic. To evident surprise in Washington, it has also fired-up Shi’a across the region.  Tel Aviv and Washington badly misread the terrain. In sum, Iran is resilient and holding its ground for the long-term war against the U.S., whose calculus was grounded in a quick ‘shoot and scoot’ war – a strategy largely imposed by paucity of munitions. The Gulf monarchies are wobbling. The Gulf ‘brand’ – Prosperity, big money, AI, beaches and tourism is over. The geopolitical ramifications, however, extend far beyond Iran and the Gulf States. Iran’s selective closure of the Hormuz Strait, and the destruction of Gulf port facilities more widely, tells another tale. In brief, Iran’s strikes on the Gulf may be firstly intended to convey a message that, for Gulf neighbors to align with Israel and America and against Iran, is no longer acceptable to Iran. But what Iran also seems to be doing is to attempt to wrest key sea chokepoints, ports and naval corridors from U.S. control — and to bring them under Iranian control. In other words, to bring the seaways adjacent to the Persian Gulf under Iranian control. Such a shift would be hugely important – not just to China and Iran’s relations with China, but to Russia too, which needs to keep seaborne export routes open.

Should Iran prevail in this mammoth struggle against Israel and the Trump Administration, the ramifications would be huge. The selective closure of Hormuz over months, in itself, would play havoc in European gas markets, as well as possibly trigger a debt market crisis. Further, the breaking of the ‘Gulf Brand’ as a safe investment haven will likely see the dollar devalue, as investors search for alternative geography in which to situate their assets. The Iran war however, is all about a bigger U.S. play: Control of strategic chokepoints, and of energy transit more generally, so as to deny China access to energy markets and so to curtail its growth. Beyond the geo-political reconfiguration as a result of the war, the geo-financial architecture will change significantly too.

Iran’s Ultimatums to the Gulf Arabs

Iran has just issued an ultimatum to the Gulf rulers. They are simply unthinkable within the current political order.

• Remove all American military bases from the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East. End every sanction against Iran, unilaterally and without preconditions.
• Reestablish diplomatic relations severed in 1980. Stop subsidizing and arming governments in the region.

The next two Iranian demands seem so far-reaching that they seem unthinkable to the West.

• Arab OPEC countries must end their close economic ties to the United States, starting with the U.S. data centers operated by Amazon, Microsoft and Google.
• And they not only must stop pricing their oil and gas in U.S. dollars, but disinvest in their existing petrodollar holdings of the U.S. investments that have been subsidizing the U.S. balance of payments since the 1974 agreements that were made to gain U.S. permission to quadruple their oil-export prices.

On the 9^th, Iran’s FM gives Europe and the Gulf a choice: “Any Arab or European nation that expels the ambassadors of Israel and the US from its territory will, starting tomorrow, have full authority and freedom to pass through the Strait of Hormuz “. What a brilliant move. He has told the peoples of various nations that their government doesn’t care for them, as they are vassals of Israel and America. So, they are willing to let you suffer for someone else. This will have consequences for these vassal governments. These demands would end U.S. economic power over OPEC countries, and thus the world oil trade. The result would be to de- dollarize the world’s oil trade and re-orient it toward Asia and Global South countries. And Iran’s plan involves not only a military and economic defeat for the United States, but an end to the political character of the Gulf family dictatorships. Iranian officials likewise recognize that U.S. attacks will keep being repeated until the United States is driven out of the Middle East. Having agreed to a ceasefire last June instead of pressing its advantage when Israeli and regional U.S. anti-missile defenses were depleted, Iran realized that war would be resumed as soon as the United States could re-arm its allies and military bases to renew what both sides recognize as a fight to some kind of final solution. The war that began on February 28 can realistically be deemed to be the formal opening of World War III because what is at issue are the terms on which the entire world will be able to buy oil and gas. What is at issue is ending the Middle East’s economic alliances with the United States and whether its oil-export earnings will continue to be accumulated in dollars as the buttress of the U.S. balance of payments to help pay for its military bases throughout the world.

Iran has announced that it will fight until it achieves these aims to prevent future wars. Iran has already destroyed the backbone of radar warning systems and anti-aircraft and missile defense sites in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain, preventing them from guiding U.S. or Israeli missile attacks or attacking Iran. Arab countries that have bases or U.S. installations will be bombed if they are not abandoned. Refusal – or inability to prevent the U.S. from using bases in their countries – will lead Iran to force regime change. This would be easiest in countries in which Palestinians are a large proportion of the labor force, as in Jordan. Iran has called for Shi’ite populations in Jordan and other countries to overthrow their monarchies to break away from U.S. control. For starters, pressure is now on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, all of which have agreed to join Trump’s Board of Peace. Indonesia, with the world’s largest Islamic population, has just withdrawn its offer to provide 8000 troops for his Gaza “peace plan.” And Iran is pressuring Arab monarchies to follow suit by withdrawing to protest U.S. policy.

All day there have been various reports that it is now the US side secretly attempting to sway Iran—via intermediaries—toward coming back to the negotiations table, now that the US has recognized the disaster of its own making that is unfolding across the region. According to these reports, Iran has brusquely blown off all such attempts to negotiate and has doubled down into all out conflict. Iran’s leaders appear to have recognized much the same thing as Russian ones have during the course of the Ukraine war: that a ‘temporary’ ceasefire is useless, as it merely gives your enemy breathing room to restock and reload for Round 2 against you. Iran says the US is pleading for a ceasefire. Ali Larijani stated: “Tonight we received messages from US President Trump through the Omani mediator, asking us to negotiate a ceasefire. Our response is that we will not accept any negotiations as long as an entity called Israel exists.” The whole region is now aflame, with US troops pulling out of bases, Arab oil economies being shut down, and no one seeming able to figure out how to stop the Iranians. All internal rumors point to neither the Israeli or US side having anticipated the Iranian “regime” surviving so well.

But first, let’s back up a little bit and acknowledge that the IRGC appears to have gone fully “to the mattresses” in this war. They are no longer playing games, and no longer willing to compromise. They have won the momentum and military, political, and propaganda initiative and are now pushing their advantage.

Conclusion

Moreover, Tehran also made clear that Rockefeller energy giants Chevron and ExxonMobil are legitimate targets. Teheran knows full well who is the ultimate brains and the head of the American Empire- it is the Rockefeller family. Step by step, we will witness the complete destruction of all Rockefeller group companies’ assets in the region. This will be followed by the destruction of the Rothschild family’s assets in the region, starting with its most important asset-Project Israel. Israel too, won’t survive in its present state. As its people flee, the overall Zionist population will decline, until it balances out with the Palestinians. Then, a One State solution is now viable. The Global South will be learning all the lessons of how the Iranian leadership displays solidarity and clear objectives while forced on an unprecedented fight on several fronts against the imperial colossus – and that after 47 years of relentless sanctions. This kind of resistance, in itself, is already a miracle. Our next article is called “war expands amidst energy blowout “