Background.
There were 4 major trends happening in Iraq, and its convergence led to a blow-up in the country, followed by the death of Qasem Soleimani. They are as follows ; The frustration of the Iraqi people at the government and the undue and resentful influence of Iran in Iraq; the role of outside powers in Iraq, and the Iraq-China deal, and the budding peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. We will discuss them, one by one.
In order for us to understand the above, it is essential to go back in time to the start of the Syrian war. When the US initiated the Arab Spring in December 2010, Syria was also targeted. A few months later, Syria signed an agreement with Iran to build a gas pipeline from Iran, through Iraq and ending at Syria’s Mediterranean port of Latakia, the regime-change pressure on Syria intensified.
Arrayed against Syria was the West in cahoots with the Arab states. By mid-2015, Syria was on the verge of defeat. Then, in September 2015, Russia entered the war on the Syrian side. Over the next 4 years, the tide turned in favor of the Syrian government. With Russia providing air cover, and Syrian troops on the ground, assisted by Iran’s paramilitary forces, the war became destructive, barbaric, and at times, threatened to blow-up and ignite the region.
The Role of Iran
When the war in Syria broke out in June 2011, it took Iran about a year to realize that the Syrian regime was in danger. Iran pledged to help Assad in Syria. It rushed its paramilitary forces that were in Iraq into Syria. These paramilitary forces or PMF, were not regular Iranian Army, but irregular forces, composed of mainly Shia, drawn from Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
There was a covert alliance between Iran and America, dating back to 2001. Iran and America were backing the Northern Alliance – a group of anti-Taliban factions. When America invaded Afghanistan in October 2001, the Northern Alliance was the primary group used to help overthrow the Taliban. Qasem Soleimani and his Quds Force were intimately involved in this, as well.
A similar deal was made when America invaded Iraq in March 2003. An alliance with the Quds Force and the US military was formed. The US military in Iraq had trained and armed them to fight the Sunni forces opposing the US in Iraq. In 2006, with the US losing badly against the fight with the Sunni groups in Iraq, Washington approached Saudi King Abdullah to negotiate a cease-fire in Iraq. This was duly accomplished by end 2006. The impetus for the cease-fire was largely due, also, to the humiliating defeat suffered by Israel in its 2006 invasion of Lebanon. It was then Washington realized that the greatest threat to its dominance of the region was not the Sunni bloc, but rather Iran and its Shia paramilitary forces and allies.
By 2007, the fighting against Americans in Iraq had slowed down. Washington’s attention was now focused on Iran. Iran was now the main threat to American dominance. Iran then began to increase its influence in Iraq. When ISIS erupted in April 2014, in northern Iraq, it was the Quds Force, and its PMFs forces that bore the brunt of the fighting. These same PMFs were also sent into Syria to help the Syrian army. All of these PMF’s were under the command of the Quds Force, headed by an Iranian general, Qaseem Soleimani.
Iran’s Al-Quds Force
Formed during the Iran-Iraq conflict of the 1980s, it played a vital role in projecting Iran’s power to assist its allies in the region. When the US invaded Afghanistan in October 2001, the Quds Force was there helping the anti-Taliban coalition. And likewise in Iraq, where they worked in close collaboration with America.
In Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, it became a sectarian war, pitting the Shia-based Quds Force against the Sunni Taliban, or the Sunni Baath forces in Iraq, to fighting Sunni militia in Syria. It was responsible for as many as 300,000 deaths amongst the civilian populations of these 3 countries.
It worked closely with the Syrian Army, the Russian Army, fighting The US and its proxies in Syria. In the 17 year period, the Quds Force became a very powerful factor on the ground in the Levant.
The Role of Israel
For Israel, Syria was always a tough nut to crack. When the war broke out in 2011, Israel did not intervene directly, but rather gave support to many groups fighting the Syrian government. From 2013, Israel began using air power to harass the Quds Forces in Syria.
When Iran tried to build a supply route to its forces in Syria, and to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli Air Force bombed these munitions supply route, warehouses, and key personnel. It was a war conducted in the shadows.
The Role of Saudi Arabia
Since 1979, when the Mullahs took over Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iran became rivals in the region. It backed Qatar’s plans for the pipeline into Syria. It supplied aid, money and arms to many groups fighting the Quds Force and the Syrian army. Iran and Saudi Arabia were on opposite sides in Iraq, Syria, and the Yemen.
In 2011, the US began negotiations with Iran, using Oman as the back-channel. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia became livid when they found out. Applying the adage that “my enemy’s enemy is my friend “, they joined forces, and became allies; both joining forces against the US. By late 2015, it became obvious that the deal between Iran and the US would fail. Once Trump won the elections in November 2016, the Rockefellers (the ruling power in America, and Trump’s boss), decided not to go ahead with the Iran nuclear deal.
In December 2016, the Rockefeller’s sent Kissinger to Moscow to do a secret deal. Which was that the US and Russia (Putin mainly), would slowly withdraw support from Iran and China. Putin agreed. In Syria, Putin gave the green light to Israel to cripple Iran’s supply line to its Shia allies in Syria and Lebanon. From January 2017, Israel began bombing Iran’s supply line, targeting weapons stockpiles, arms convoys and key people of the Quds Force.
The reason why Putin went ahead with this strategy was that Putin doesn’t want competition from Iranian gas in the European market. Russia has a dominant share of the EU’s gas market, supplying nearly a third of Europe’s gas imports. Had Iran succeeded in building the Shia pipeline to the Mediterranean, then Russia would be facing competition. So, Israel was used by both the US and Putin to make sure that Iran doesn’t succeed in completing its “land-bridge” to the Med.
Iran was powerless against Israel. It could use its proxies in Lebanon-Hezbollah, and in Gaza- Islamic Jihad, to irritate Israel, at best, and to bog down its forces in the Gaza and on the Lebanese border.
At the same time, in March 2015, Saudi Arabia invaded Yemen, to create an alternative route for its oil-exports, in the event that the US blocks off the 2 critical maritime choke points of the Straits of Hormuz, and the Bab el Mandab. The target would be oil exports of the Arab Gulf states of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi. This was a part of the plans agreed upon by Obama and Iran, in their negotiations, in 2013.
And so the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran increased tremendously between mid-March 2015 and end 2019. For more details, read the authors articles called “The Aramco Hit”, and the “US-Saudi Nexus”, as well as “The Geopolitics of Yemen”, and “Qatar in the cross-hairs of New York”. The bitter rivalry between New York and Iran can best be understood if you read the 3-part series in Volume 1, called “The Iran File”. Further, to understand why New York and Iran agreed to the nuclear deal, please read the 2-part article called “The Break-up”. All of these articles will explain, in detail, the background to most of these events.
Iran’s Agenda in Syria
The hardliners in Iran were not happy about the nuclear deal with the US. It took 3 years, between 2012 and 2015, to finally break it, with intentional provocations. They knew that if this deal was broken, then the US would once again side with Israel and Saudi Arabia. And, this time, Iran would be the target. One of the key points in this plan would be the Americans blockading of the 2 straits, especially the Hormuz Straits, with the target being Iran’s oil exports.
With this in mind, it became a matter of life and death for Iran to secure its land-bridge to the Mediterranean Sea. This would enable it to still export its oil and gas, and survive. So, Qasem Soleimani was tasked with this mission. He was ruthless in his aims, and managed to build up-to some extent- Iran’s land bridge links to Syria.
Iranians are facing extreme deprivation and impoverishment since 2017, due to crippling sanctions. The riyal has lost two-thirds of its value since 2017. Oil exports and therefore oil revenue have lost, in stages, 90% of their 2017 level. The consumer price index has doubled since 2016. Milk and sugar prices are double, beef 2.5 times higher. GDP has dropped about 5% in 2018, 6% more in 2019. The new sanctions which Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced today, January 10, are an attempt at an economic embargo, like the Saudis imposed on Yemen by war.
Iran’s Agenda in Iraq
As discussed above, Iran came to dominate Iraq, in all of its spheres-especially when the US drew down most of its military from Iraq. As it increased its influence within Iraq, resentment against Iran increased. Most business contracts went to Iranian companies. Most jobs went to Iranian labor that came into Iraq. The local people- Sunni and Shia- became fed up with this. It just needed a spark for this to blow up. That spark would be provided by the CIA.
And as usual, when we look at these events, you cannot just look at the event in itself. That event is the result of many factors. But most importantly, we have a world situation where the trans-Atlantic financial system is on the brink of collapse. We have a British-directed coup inside the United States against the President himself. So it’s a very complex situation.
The Iraqi state was completely demolished. Because when you take the sovereignty and independence of a nation out of the international equation, then you have the law of jungle, where the powerful can dominate and destroy the weak, and then we have an escalation towards world war. With the toppling of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in April 2003, the first thing the US did (in the person of Paul L Bremer, an employee of Kissinger & Associates) was to disband the Iraqi armed forces, the security forces, the intelligence, and all other functions of government—it was not simply that they arrested and killed Saddam Hussein. That was not really the story. The story is that Iraq as a nation was cancelled. And therefore, you created a situation where we had all kinds of forces taking advantage and trying to gain a foothold. People, in the absence of a real government, had to go back to their tribal, ethnic, and sectarian loyalties, to seek protection, and also to try to survive in these new circumstances where a sectarian war developing.
So you had all these militias growing; we had other forces in the region, not only Iran, besides the United States and Britain, you had Saudi Arabia, Turkey, other Arab countries, all intervening in Iraq, to destabilize or secure their positions, and so on.
That was when the Iranian role came into play in Iraq. Iran has many allies inside Iraq, especially in the Shia section of the population. So we have had a chaotic situation since the invasion of 2003, and the cancelling of the Iraqi state. That’s what has happened.
Now, after 15 years of U.S. occupation of Iraq, and all these disturbances, Iraq has not even been restored to what it was before the invasion. The entire infrastructure, all the services, agriculture, industry—it doesn’t exist in Iraq. The oil industry has been the only thing developing, so Iraq has been simply exporting oil, and importing everything it needs—food, medicine, everything else is imported. So, Iraq became a “cargo cult” rather than a real nation.
There was however a new development, and It is really significant: Because there was quite recently a chance for Iraq and the Iraqi government to rebuild and to reestablish a real, sovereign government in Iraq. And this is a really key element. It also reflects the new paradigm, and its impact in stabilizing and rebuilding the region with the Belt and Road Initiative as a key component of that.
On October 6, President Trump ordered the immediate withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Syria. At the same time, the Syrian Army, with support from Russia, started to regain control of that northeastern part of Syria, in the Raqqa and the Hasakah provinces, although not complete control. In the west, in Idlib province, in the northwest close to the Turkish border, you still have the last remaining obstacle, which is the control by the al-Qaeda types, of this province, Idlib. There was an agreement between Turkey, Syria and Russia to gradually manage the situation, but the Turkish side did not fulfill its obligations, and now the Russians and Syrian Army have decided it’s now time to clean up and retake Idlib province
And then on October 26, U.S. special troops went into Idlib province and killed the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and then President Trump could show that as a trophy to convince people that his policy to withdraw from Syria is viable because the goal has been accomplished, the Islamic State and its chief have been eliminated.
When everybody was watching this situation in Syria, something was going on in Iraq. Iraq had been relatively calm; ISIS was defeated already in 2017. There were new elections, a new government came in in 2018, but the formation of government was a problem, because of the parliamentary system that is in Iraq—which is another problem. In 2003, Paul Bremer changed the Iraqi Constitution from a Presidential system to a parliamentary system, and this would become a big problem, because the head of state is incapable of implementing any policies: He has to go to a parliament that is highly split among ethnic, sectarian, and even tribal groups, and militias, so how can you get a parliament like this to agree on any policy? Even the formation of the government took about a year to complete!
In any case, the new government under Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi tried to form a new policy, to regain some of the credibility of the Iraqi government—because everybody knows there is massive corruption and total failure for 15 years—to restore electricity, water, agriculture and other things. But nobody believes in the Iraqi government. This government nonetheless tried to get something going.
But at the same time, the Iraqi parliament managed to get a quorum to vote a resolution to disinvite foreign forces, which had been invited, like the United States, to help in defeating ISIS in 2014. Of course, the United States has had permanent bases in Iraq since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and it has been playing a key role in all matters in Iraq, both positive and negative.
China & the BRI
China officially inaugurated its Eurasian Land Bridge program in 2013. It was given a new title – the Belt and Road Initiative, or the BRI. The aim was to build transportation corridors between China and Europe, with the Middle East acting as the “connector” between these two ends. To some degree, various parts of the BRI were built within the region, but completion was delayed due to various conflicts in the region. The railway infrastructure in Iraq, such as it is, will be built out after the completion of the network in Iran by China, allowing for the transport of all manufactured products from China into, ultimately, Europe. In this context, late last year saw Iran’s Vice President, Eshaq Jahangiri announce that Iran had signed a contract with China to implement a project to electrify the main 900 kilometer railway connecting Tehran to the north-eastern city of Mashhad. Adjunct to this, Jahangiri added that there are also plans to establish a Tehran-Qom-Isfahan high-speed train line and to extend this upgraded network up to the north-west through Tabriz. Tabriz, home to a number of key sites relating to oil, gas, and petrochemicals, and the starting point for the Tabriz-Ankara gas pipeline, will be a pivot point of the 2,300 kilometer New Silk Road that links Urumqi (the capital of China’s western Xinjiang Province) to Tehran, and connecting Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan along the way, and then via Turkey into Europe. Once the plans for this are making substantial progress then China will extend the transport links into Iraq, then Syria, and onto the West.
China has switched its attention for the moment to Iran’s close ally and neighbor, Iraq. Like Iran, Iraq has enormous and still relatively underdeveloped oil and gas reserves, it is an irreplaceable geographical stepping stone in China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ programme, and it is in need of major ongoing funding. Chinese companies operate on a number of fields in south Iraq. Last week saw key developments in China’s cornerstone project of making Iraq into a client state.
If nature abhors a vacuum, so too does geopolitics. When President Trump months ago announced plans to pull US troops out of Syria and the Middle East generally, Russia and especially China began quietly to intensify contacts with key states in the region.
Chinese involvement with Iraqi oil development and other infrastructure projects, though large, was significantly disrupted by the ISIS occupation of some one third of Iraqi territory. In September, 2019 Washington demanded that Iraq pay for completion of key infrastructure projects destroyed by the ISIS war– a war where Washington as well as Ankara, Israel and Saudi Arabia played the key hidden role—by giving the US government 50% of Iraqi oil revenues, an outrageous demand to put it politely.
Iraq China Pivot
Iraq refused. Instead Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi went to Beijing as head of a 55-member delegation to discuss Chinese involvement in the rebuilding of Iraq. This visit did not go unnoticed in Washington. Even before that, Iraqi-China ties were significant. China was Iraq’s number one trading partner and Iraq was China’s third-leading source of oil after Saudi Arabia and Russia. In April 2019 in Baghdad, China’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Relations Lee Joon said China was ready to contribute to Iraq’s reconstruction.
For Abdul-Mahdi the Beijing trip was a major success; he called it a “quantum jump” in relations. The visit saw the signing of eight wide-ranging memoranda of understanding (MoUs), a framework credit agreement, and the announcement of plans for Iraq to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It included Chinese involvement in rebuilding Iraq’s infrastructure as well as developing Iraqi oilfields. For both countries an apparent “win-win” as the Chinese like to say.
It was only a matter of days after the Beijing talks of Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi that nationwide protests against Iraqi government corruption and economic policies broke out, led by opposition cries that Abdul-Mahdi resign. Reuters witnessed snipers carefully fanning the violent protest firing on the protesters giving the impression of government repression much as the CIA did in Maidan in Kiev in February 2014 or in Cairo in 2011.
There is now strong evidence that the China talks and the timing of the spontaneous October 2019 protests against the Abdul-Mahdi government were connected.
The Iraq-China Deal
The first of these developments was the announcement from Iraq’s Finance Ministry that the country had started exporting 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to China in October as part of the 20-year oil-for-infrastructure deal agreed between the two countries. As highlighted by OilPrice.com, the broad framework of this arrangement was agreed last September during a visit by Iraq’s then-Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to Beijing, with the purpose of expanding China’s then US$20 billion of investment in Iraq in addition to the US$30 billion or so in annual trade between the two countries. This arrangement neatly rolls into China’s wider plan for Iraq (and Iran) as it aims to gradually increase its presence across the country, just as it has done in many countries in Africa.
How serious the Iraq government is about rebuilding the country was shown when Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, heading up the largest delegation of ministers ever, visited Beijing from September 19-23, 2019.
A memorandum of understanding was signed between China and Iraq, right there, under Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi and President Xi Jinping, and then under the sponsorship of China’s Prime Minister Li Keqiang. The details of that agreement were known, but never made available to the public; it was never discussed generally, and it was actually ridiculed inside Iraq. But, the agreement is a real breakthrough, both for Iraq, but also for how to do things
The agreement is that Iraq and China will establish an Iraq reconstruction fund; it will be an Iraqi fund, in which the government will deposit every month, the equivalent in worth, of 3 million barrels of oil, exported to China, which is one of the big importers of Iraqi oil. Part of the revenue from that oil will be deposited in the reconstruction fund. When the Iraqi government establishes the fund and deposits the first installment, which was supposed to happen in October-November, the (China Export and Credit Insurance Corp) will issue insurance for the Chinese Export and Import Bank and other banks to issue credits to the Iraqi government.
The credits, worth up to $10 billion to start with, for Chinese companies to start working on rebuilding and developing Iraq’s railways, roadways, power plants and distribution, building ports, airports, and restoring and cleaning the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, and rebuilding the canal system, water desalination plants; and to rebuild and create new Iraqi industrial zones, and to re-energize the Iraqi agricultural sector which had been destroyed. So, this is an extremely massive reconstruction plan, which is supported by the most powerful infrastructure in the world: China. The Iraqi prime minister, at the same time, pledged to actively promote the Belt and Road Initiative in the region, and said that Iraq will play a role in that process. And if exports of Iraqi oil to China increases, then more money will become available to fund more projects.
So, with China proposing this reconstruction fund, now, the financial framework would be available to start implementing these kinds of projects. But the credit issued to the Fund by China’s banks is a multiple of the oil revenue, whereby roughly $2 billion per year in oil revenues is the basis for $20 billion or later $3 billion per year the basis for $30 billion, in what appear to be 20-year project loans. (It is a 20-year MOU.)
The investment account, is itself also investing in the critical projects. And, its dedicated oil revenues are capable of backing more than China’s $20 billion or $30 billion development loan—the Reconstruction Fund could, if desired, issue additional debt to Iraqis and Iraqi institutions.
The deal took effect from October 1. By the end of December, the Reconstruction fund had $495 million, representing sales of 9 million barrels of oil. This money is held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York – a Rockefeller-controlled entity. In total, Iraq has $35 billion on deposit at the New York Fed. By this manner, America has all the advantage when it comes to dictating policy to Iraq.
“It will allow for infrastructural diversification for the China-Russia partnership that is now really gathering pace across the center of the Middle East, to add to the plans we are seeing being put into place for Syria,” a senior Iran Oil Ministry official told OilPrice.com last week. Specifically, the entry of the Russian company, Stroytransgaz, into Block 17 of Iraq’s barren and lawless Anbar region recently: “Is the absolute clear sign that the Iran-Iraq-Syria oil and gas pipelines system is now going ahead,” according to the Iran and Iraq source. “This whole area is right in the center of what the U.S. military used to call ‘the spine’ of Islamic State where the Euphrates flows westwards into Syria and eastwards into the Persian Gulf, extremely close to the border with Iran,” he said. “Along the spine running from east to west are the historical ultra-nationalist and ultra-anti-West cities of Falluja, Ramadi, Hit and Haditha, and then we’re into Syria, and a short hop to the key strategic ports of Syria – Banias and Tartus – that also happen to be extremely important to the Russians,” he underlined. “With access to Jordan as well, China and Russia will have all of the key export and transport routes covered,” he concluded.
So, this is a breakthrough for Iraq. It’s a breakthrough for the whole region—how a region which is just coming out of a war, can be rebuilt, even though you don’t have financial resources, even if you have a complicated political system.
The American aim is to stop this development going forward. And the way to block it is the choke point on the Iraq-Syrian border post called Abu Kamal- which we will read more about. Do note that the cities of Fallujah, Ramadi, Hit, Haditha , and Abu Kamal are all located in Iraq’s Anbar province- the most anti-US and anti-Iran of all Iraq’s provinces.
So, you have had all these developments, starting in the summer of 2019 going through to the September visit by Iraq’s prime minister to China and the signing of the oil for technology agreement. In October, the President of the United States ordered the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. And most of these troops were re-located into Iraq, in preparation for blocking the transportation corridor from Iran into Syria, via Abu Kamal. The Syrians, in coordination with Russia, are getting back their territories and their sovereignty. The terrorists are being eliminated.
Remember that the head of Hezbollah revealed that Lebanon had gotten a similar offer from China. He reported the Chinese came and offered to help build our infrastructure. But the government of Rafiq Hariri, who is a French-Saudi-American asset, rejected the Chinese offer. But the whole region was oriented towards reconstruction, towards working with China on the Belt and Road, working with Russia. It was a fantastic chance for the United States to become involved in this reconstruction of the entire region.
Instead, what we have now is the threat of a new war.
The Abu Kamal border crossing between Iraq and Syria—closed for 5 years during the Syrian war, when the Syrian territory was under the control of ISIS—was reopened on Sept. 30, 2019.
That border crossing had been closed for about five years, during the Syrian war and the control of that region by ISIS. Both the Iraqi and Syrian forces managed to liberate Abu Kamal on both the Syrian and Iraqi sides, then on Sept. 30, we had this border crossing opened. Many people in the West were upset about that, because the propaganda was that this will open the road from Iran into Iraq to Syria and Lebanon to take weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This is the only thing they were thinking about.
The economic aspect of the Abu Kamal crossing is very important. The problem is that everybody else was fixating on its military and geopolitical implications.
Crossroads of the Continents
If we go back to the whole idea of the World Land-Bridge, Lyndon LaRouche’s (the founder of EIR , and also whose brainchild the Landbridge was) plan for rebuilding the world economy by connecting the continents, when you look at where Iraq is located, in the so-called “Middle East,”- the crossroads of the continents. This is the pivotal point of all the oceans, all the trade routes, whether maritime or land trade routes, between east and west. Also, this region has massive wealth, both natural, human, and financial.
When this region is racked by all these never-ending wars, sectarian wars and terrorism, it’s impossible to get anything done, either for these nations as such, but also on an international basis
Hidden Hand against Belt & Road
If we go back to this Abu Kamal crossing being opened, and the visit of Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi to China, what happens immediately after that? As soon as Abdul-Mahdi is back in Iraq, you suddenly have massive, so-called “spontaneous” demonstrations against the government, by frustrated youth— many of them have legitimate reasons to be upset with the government; the lack of all basic services, the massive unemployment, especially among educated youth. The problem is the demands these youth people were making were exactly the issues that Adil Abdul-Mahdi was discussing in Beijing, how to solve all of these problems. Of course, these projects will not happen in one day, such projects take time.
The Iraqi government was trying to get those solutions started in that visit to Beijing! When Adil Abdul-Mahdi was oil minister under Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi from 2014 to 2018, he actually had proposed this same plan, to exchange Iraqi oil for reconstruction. But you remember what happened in 2014:
ISIS came into the picture, after many years of support from the Obama administration in Syria, and then they invaded Iraq in June-July of 2014. From that moment on, all these plans were put on ice. So, the Iraqi government was actually prevented from implementing policies which will benefit the same young people who were demonstrating against them, as of Oct. 1, 2019
What happened next were clashes with the security forces. The government tried to calm the situation by instructing the security forces not to intervene. But the Shia militias went in there, as a third force, shooting demonstrators. That plunged the whole thing into violence, with about 470 young people being killed—mostly in Shia areas. This enraged people even more, and because these Shia militias are connected to Iran in a certain way, the demonstrators then also turned their anger against Iran, and the Iranian consulate in Najaf, which is a Shia stronghold, was actually stormed and burned, and the Iranian diplomats had to flee the building.
So, suddenly you have a situation, where instead of the government having a rational discussion about how to rebuild the country, you now had a conflict, between militias, and the peaceful demonstrators. The Iraqi government was forced to resign—this being the demand of the protesters. Instead, we now have an Iraqi caretaker government. The parliament has so far failed to form a new government. The Prime Minister and his government, who signed the MOU, are unable to implement that agreement now. They no longer have the legal authority to do so.
The Power of the Militias
Interestingly, Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi, in July 2019, gave an order to abolish the so-called “Shia militias,” especially the Popular Mobilization Forces, whose commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was killed along with Soleimani in the recent drone attack. In July, Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi ordered the demobilization of these Shia militias, which could then be incorporated into the Iraqi Army so that the government and Iraqi Army could regain control over the military forces of the country, which was the right idea.
But that did not happen as planned. These militias have enormous power, and there are forces in the region that are not interested in taking the power away from these militias and handing it back to the Iraqi government. Then, in August, the Israeli air force, for the first time since 1984, bombed positions of these militias in Iraq. What message does that send? The message is, we want those guys to be our rivals, our counterparts, so to speak, inside Iraq. And we want to continue this war, and we don’t want the militias to lose their base, their capabilities.
So, the Prime Minister of Iraq was made to look as if he were allied with Israel against the militias, which gave the militias even more power, and more support to continue. In that sense, the Israelis and the United States forces which are continuously attacking the militias, are actually empowering them, rather than weakening them. They’re weakening the Iraqi government and Army, by saying, “you don’t have control over your territory,” so we can continue playing this cat-and-mouse game inside Iraq. Whereas the Iranians themselves and of course the Revolutionary Guard can also continue to be active in Iraq. This is the kind of situation.
In late December, the Abu Kamel crossing-on the Iraq-Syria border- was bombed by Israel and the US. (In the south, there’s al-Tanf, controlled by the United States forces; in the north, it’s controlled by the Kurdish militias, and partly by the United States). And there is the Abu Kamal area, which was guarded by Iraqi forces but also by these so-called Hezbollah militias. They had units guarding the border and also chasing remnants of ISIS in the desert area there; but inside both Iraq and Syria.
The United States bombed a number of these units guarding the border and killed 19 people, in retaliation, the Defense Department said, for an attack on an American base by these forces, which is not confirmed. The problem is that the attack took place in Kirkuk—see the arrow on the map—which is far, far to the east of Abu Kamal. So it was a whole setup to create a situation where you would have a new confrontation between the United States forces and the militias.
What happens next is those who were killed by the United States were taken to Baghdad and after the funerals, you had the attack on the American Embassy—which was more or less symbolic, but for Americans, it is a big attack on the United States itself. Then, three days afterward, you have the assassination of Soleimani in Baghdad, on his way from the airport.
Information has come to light that indicts the United States not just for the Soleimani killing but also for the over 500 killings during the Iraqi protests in late 2019.
In fact, it can be proven that the United States not only organized the protests but also is responsible for killing protesters as well, hundreds of them, something we have seen before, Maidan in 2014, Libya in 2011 and Cairo in 2009.
Critical to understanding events is understanding America’s real role in Iraq. To do that, it is necessary to understand why Iraq’s parliament voted unanimously to oust American troops.
The story behind this is much more than the death of Soleimani, far more, and has been suppressed. That story involves a broader geopolitical narrative that transpired when Iraq under Mahdi tried to remove America’s heel from its neck.
The story behind Mahdi’s address to parliament, the recorded portion of which in no way answered any real questions about why Iraq would make such a drastic move as to expel American troops, ending the billion dollar a year payoff scheme that fed so many Sunni politicians.
“[Speaker of the Council of Representatives of Iraq] Halbousi attended the parliamentary session while almost none of the Sunni members did. This was because the Americans had learned that Abdul-Mehdi was planning to reveal sensitive secrets in the session and sent Halbousi to prevent this.
Halbousi cut Abdul-Mehdi off at the commencement of his speech and then asked for the live airing of the session to be stopped. After this, Halbousi together with other members, sat next to Abdul-Mehdi, speaking openly with him but without it being recorded. This is what was discussed in that session that was not broadcast:
Abdul-Mehdi spoke angrily about how the Americans had ruined the country and now refused to complete infrastructure and electricity grid projects unless they were promised 50% of oil revenues, which Abdul-Mehdi refused.”
That deal with China was the result of Mahdi’s abandoning any attempt to work with the United States after years of seeing his nation bled dry.
It is no secret that the United States had little or no role in fighting ISIS and, were one to ask the Shia majority of Iraqi citizens, most would insist that the US brought ISIS to Iraq with Saudi help. ISIS was used to offset Shia influence and guarantee Iraq would remain under US-Saudi control. The Sunni leaders, who controlled key military commands and provincial governorships, planned to simply turn affairs over to ISIS and, in fact, did so.
As to Mahdi’s deal with China, that as we will see, precipitated the American staged coup, the following from the Middle East Institute:
“Upon arriving in Beijing on September 19 at the head of a 55-member delegation, Iraq Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi described the visit to China as heralding a “quantum leap” in bilateral relations.The five-day visit culminated in the signing of eight wide-ranging memoranda of understanding (MoUs), a framework credit agreement, and the announcement of plans for Iraq to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).Since then, however, a wave of angry anti-government protests have swept across much of Iraq, leaving more than 100 dead and thousands wounded — a vivid reminder of the country’s ongoing struggle for stability and of the obstacles to the further consolidation of China-Iraq relations.” :
“Since early 2018, the central government of Iraq has been working assiduously to capitalize on the territorial defeat of Da’esh, which three years earlier had overrun and controlled nearly one-third of the country. A working relationship between the GOI and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has been reestablished. After repeated delays due to a series of security incidents the newly constructed Qaim border crossing with Syria has reopened. Planning for construction of a new crude oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Turkey is underway.
Yet, although Iraq has entered a period of relative calm, the country faces a multitude of challenges. The security situation in the country is fragile. According to a recent report by the Pentagon, Da’esh has “solidified its insurgent capabilities in Iraq.” Meanwhile, the GOI is struggling to maintain a delicate balance in its relations with key allies US / Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as to avoid becoming another front in an escalating Iran-Israel proxy war. On July 1, Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi issued a decree ordering the integration of all Iraqi militias, including the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU).”
Only with a broader context of events, with an understandable timeline, can we adequately assess events here.
“This is why I visited China and signed an important agreement with them to undertake the construction instead. Upon my return, Trump called me to ask me to reject this agreement. When I refused, he threatened to unleash huge demonstrations against me that would end my premiership.
Huge demonstrations against me duly materialized and Trump called again to threaten that if I did not comply with his demands, then he would have Marine snipers on tall buildings target protesters and security personnel alike in order to pressure me.
I refused again and handed in my resignation. To this day the Americans insist on us rescinding our deal with the Chinese.
After this, when our Minister of Defense publicly stated that a third party was targeting both protesters and security personnel alike (just as Trump had threatened, he would do), I received a new call from Trump threatening to kill both me and the Minister of Defense if we kept on talking about this “third party”.
The Saudi-Iran Peace Deal
Prime Minister Abdul-Mahi said that the reason he was going to meet with Soleimani was to take a message from the Saudis to the Iranians. If you remember, there was great tension in the Gulf, throughout the spring and summer last year, with oil tankers being attacked; American drones shot down by Iran, and the Americans attacking a major Saudi oil installation in Saudi Arabia, which cut its oil production massively. Under these circumstances, there was a heightened level of tension. Adil Abdul-Mahdi was trying to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran to ease the tension, – – “ to leave no pretext for the United States, Israel, or anyone else, to start a new war, with Iran this time. As everybody knows, if you start war with Iran, the whole region is going to be set on fire “.
Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, or MBS, was trying desperately to put his country on a path of development, and job creation for millions of Saudi youth. In the process, he angered New York to such an extent, that they tried to kill him three times. Regarding the Aramco IPO, the Rockefellers tried to get MBS to list it in New York. When he refused and chose Hong Kong, the CIA destabilized Hong Kong. Then, when MBS looked to Tokyo to list the Aramco IPO, the US bombed the Aramco facility in September, and blamed Iran’s proxy-the Houtis of Yemen.
By November, MBS had reached his limit with the Americans. He realized that it was time to reach a peace deal with Iran, and defuse the American plan to foment a war between his country and Iran. A peace deal with Iran would also pave the way for peace in Yemen, and stop the drain on Saudi finances.
In reaching a deal with Iran, MBS used both Pakistan’s Imran Khan and Iraq’s Adel Abdul-Mahdi.
So Adil Abdu-Mahdi was actually sending a message through Soleimani, to the Saudis, or receiving a message from the Saudis to give to the Iranians via Soleimani. But Soleimani was killed in that operation.
Somebody was trying, during this whole time, to undermine the sovereignty of Iraq, undermining the possibility for having a peaceful solution for the whole region, and also starting reconstruction—remember, a few days before the assassination of Soleimani
The kingdom of Saudi Arabia was not consulted regarding the US strike. In light of the rapid developments, the Kingdom stresses the importance of exercising restraint to guard against all acts that may lead to escalation, with severe consequences.
Saudi Arabia is sending a delegation to Washington to urge restraint with Iran on behalf of [Persian] Gulf states. The message will be: ‘Please spare us the pain of going through another war’.”
I was supposed to meet him [Soleimani] later in the morning when he was killed. He came to deliver a message from Iran in response to the message we had delivered to the Iranians from the Saudis.
The Kingdom’s statement regarding the events in Iraq stresses the Kingdom’s view of the importance of de-escalation to save the countries of the region and their people from the risks of any escalation.
Who Benefits?
The conclusion one reaches after reading this report is as follows:-
Destabilize Iraq in order to stop the China-Iraq deal going forward. There is no way that the Americans will allow Iraq to be rebuilt- especially if it’s not on their terms. We have seen the extent to which America will go in stopping such a development. Iraq is the missing link between Iran and Syria. It is in America’s interest to make sure it stays that way. Any infrastructural development in Iraq will pave the way for China and Iran to finally connect the western to the eastern parts of Eurasia- to the horror of both London and New York.
The Rockefeller’s “Fortress America “game-plan requires tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia to escalate; which would then ignite and blow-up the region. In this way, America has a great chance to cripple its economic rivals – China and Europe – as both are very dependent on oil from the Middle East. This would be followed by a general outbreak of war, pulling in all the major powers – the EU, Russia, China, India, and Japan. Eurasia will, once again, be destroyed, and America maintains its dominant global position.
Thus, the US assassinated Qasem Soleimani. And, derailed the budding peace talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Iran Retaliates
Then the surprise came, Iran’s 22 missiles rained down on Al Asad Air Base, easily pushing past America’s Patriot missile defense system. Worse still, the highly advanced solid fuel missiles from Iraq hit within not yards but within 3 meters of targets, actually much closer than that. American casualties were more than 80 dead, and more than 200 wounded. Obviously, the Americans are denying reports of casualties.
Similarly, when missiles plowed into the “consular” facilities, really weapons warehouses, at Erbil International Airport, in the Kurdish region of Northern Iraq, the US denied any hits, claiming to have shot down two of three missiles and the other a “wide miss.”
Then, as is so often the case, American military personnel billeted in the apartment buildings just south of the facility uploaded their video to YouTube.
Three missiles, three direct hits, dramatic explosions, which the Americans seemed to enjoy immensely.
Chronology
Here we will do a brief sequence of events over the past 6 months in Iraq:
July 1, 2019 Iraqi PM issues an order for the private Shia militias to disband and join the Iraqi Army
August The Israeli air force bombs various Shia PMFs in Iraq- the first time Israel has bombed targets in Iraq since 1984
September 14 The US bombs the Aramco complex-and lays the blame on the Houthis
September 16 Trump calls Iraqi PM, warning him not to go ahead with the China deal
September 21 Iraqi delegation in Beijing. Deal is signed.
September 29 The CIA instigates riots and protests in Iraq-with US snipers adding to the confusion, and increasing the death toll. In addition, the Shia militias try to quell the protests, which enrage them, and the protestors burn Iran’s consulate in Najjaf.
September 30. The Abu Kamal (al Qaim) border crossing is opened
October 6 Trump orders all US troops out of Syria – and quietly re-directs them into Syria
October 26 US Special Forces kill Baghdadi-leader of ISIS, in Syria’s Idlib province, as a justification to show the American people that the US mission in Syria is over, with Al-Baghdadi dead, and the exit from Syria is now viable.
November Saudi Crown Prince reaches out to Teheran to cut a peace deal
December 30 The US bombs the Abu Kamal border crossing
Friday January 3, 2020 Qasem Soleimani flies from Damascus to Baghdad with messages regarding the peace overture from MBS. He is assassinated along with the head of the head of the Iraqi PMF forces Abdul Ali al Muhandis
Saturday January 4 Trump sent a message to Tehran via the emir of Qatar that there would be deescalation if Tehran came up with a “proportional response.” This was done by Trump to allow the Iranian leadership to show its people that Iran’s promise to take revenge was upheld.
Monday January 6 Iran retaliates by firing 22 ballistic missiles on a American base, Ayn Al Assad-located about 70 Kms west of Baghdad, and 3 missiles at the US base just outside Erbil Airport.
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s tweet following the missile attack this morning stated: “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter.
”“DEBKA-Mossad acknowledged that Iran’s offensive missiles cannot be defended against. Its secret is that it hugs the ground going underneath the radar screens. … What is amazing is that Iraq has allowed U.S. troops into their country at all after seeing over a million of their people murdered by the U.S. if we include the 500,000 dead children….” the Patriot missile defense systems on the U.S. bases were not used “.
Details are still sparse, but there’s ultra-high level, back-room diplomacy going on, especially between Iran and Russia, with China discreet, but on full alert.”
