7 Tensions at the Brink
Both governments face mounting internal pressure to escalate. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration is grounded in hardline Hindu nationalism, leaving little room for retreat. In Pakistan, the military remains the dominant political force and may view escalation as a political lifeline amid economic turmoil and post-coup instability following prime minister in 2022. Pakistan remains deliberately ambiguous, making its thresholds for first use unclear. Any Indian push to target strategic sites or launch a deeper invasion could provoke a rapid and unpredictable response. Pakistan’s lack of geographic depth amplifies its sense of vulnerability. Both armies are formidable. India has the upper hand on paper, but Pakistan’s border with China complicates the equation. Beijing has no interest in seeing India dominate Kashmir or sever the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which forms a key artery in Beijing’s ambitious, multi-continent Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). If India attempts to seize all of Kashmir or block China’s overland access, Chinese intervention is highly likely. Even without third-party involvement, a full-scale war would be disastrous. The human and financial toll would rival that of global wars. And with both nations governed by fragile political structures, neither could absorb such losses in a protracted conventional conflict. The risk, ultimately, is not just of war, but of a war that spirals far beyond anyone’s control.
Kashmir: South Asia’s Flashpoint
Equally concerning are the growing defense ties between India and Israel, which have intensified in recent years. While there is no conclusive evidence of Israeli military personnel being deployed in Kashmir, Tel Aviv’s strategic support for India – particularly in the realm of defense and military technology – has been well documented. As India strengthens its military capabilities, it has increasingly turned to and defense systems, further aligning the two countries on key security issues. In light of this, Senator Irfan Siddiqui of Pakistan’s PML-N opposition party, recently accused Indian Prime Minister Modi of following an Israeli-style policy in Kashmir. On 26 April, Siddiqui likened Modi’s approach to the claiming India was trying to transform Kashmir into “another Gaza.” He criticized the Indian government for replicating the occupation state’s policies of control and suppression in Kashmir, particularly following the controversial revocation in 2019. This growing alignment between India and Israel, coupled with the increasing militarization of Kashmir, has far-reaching implications for the region’s security dynamics.
External Forces Amplifying the Crisis
This attack – occurring as India and China were making strides toward reconciliation – adds fuel to a complex geopolitical fire. The evolving relations between the two Asian giants, already tense after the 2020 Ladakh border clash, now hang in the balance. The Pahalgam attack could further deepen divides, potentially sparking a regional shift. The Israeli connection also complicates the issue. Reports of Israeli military presence in Kashmir suggest external actors are feeding the flames, potentially steering India’s military strategy. This is hardly a surprise given India’s growing defense ties with Israel, further fracturing the region’s fragile balance. Modi had just recently commented on with Beijing – the first time in five years that an Indian statesman had spoken positively about China. In an interview, he said he was optimistic about India’s relations with its long-time adversary, and underlined the need for further cooperation between New Delhi and Beijing because of the recent developments in the disputed border issue, indicating remarkable progress. The relationship between the two countries, he said, was undergoing major structural changes. However, the timing of the attack seems designed to derail those efforts. With the region’s stability at risk, the attack raises questions about who ultimately benefits from this escalating conflict.
India’s Hardline Response: Strategy or Posturing?
India’s aggressive rhetoric is less about military escalation and more about domestic posturing. India has a significant advantage over Pakistan, but both states possess nuclear weapons, and a miscalculation could have devastating consequences for both. Pakistan’s strength lies in its land-based power and geographic advantage, but in a direct conflict, India’s technological superiority would likely prove decisive. This highlights the stark military disparities between India and Pakistan. India’s defense budget – $75 billion – vastly surpasses Pakistan’s $7.6 billion. India’s air fleet includes 2,229 aircraft, compared to Pakistan’s 1,399, and India boasts 4,201 tanks, while Pakistan has just 2,627. India also has a powerful naval fleet, including two aircraft carriers and 18 submarines.
Pakistan’s Retaliation: A Nation on Edge
Pakistan, already reeling from internal challenges – militancy in Baluchistan, economic struggles – has retaliated, revoking Indian visas and suspending trade deals. Pakistan has no interest to open another front despite finding it difficult to address the existing ones, draining on the economy. Pakistan’s military, despite its strategic position, lacks India’s overwhelming air and naval superiority. This leaves Pakistan in a vulnerable position, relying more on political posturing than direct military confrontation.
It was incredible that the Kashmiri militant outfit, lying dormant for years, would suddenly reawaken and carry out a high-profile massive operation in a tourist resort. Islamabad denied involvement, accusing India of failing to provide proof. A manhunt is under way for three suspects involved in the attack — one Indian national and two Pakistanis — and the Indian Army says it launched “search and destroy” operations to find them across the Kashmir Valley. As tensions between India and Pakistan escalate, the true beneficiaries are the US and London. The US, Israel, and other global actors stand to profit from prolonging instability – either through a lucrative arms trade or by leveraging the crisis to advance their own strategic agendas. The future of South Asia hangs in the balance. Whether the region is pushed toward further conflict or whether cooler heads prevail will not only shape the fate of the subcontinent but could have profound implications for global stability.
What Happens Next?
Governments and analysts are closely watching the unpredictable situation .Another factor is that diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan were already weak before the latest measures and countermeasures announced following the attack. Pakistan expelled India’s envoy and has not posted its own ambassador in New Delhi since India revoked the semi-autonomous status of Kashmir in 2019.
So the US had nothing to do with this India/Pak tension right? At least that’s what JD Vance claimed when it all began. But then something changed. All of a sudden Trump stepped in to de-escalate the crisis and announced a complete ceasefire with immediate effect resulting in India becoming a global shame and losing all its credibility and hype. The question is … what went wrong?? Something triggered the west and this is where I believe two things went wrong for them: First, China’s military tech went viral. When Pakistan used Chinese made PL15 missiles and JF-17 Block III fighter jets to knock down Indian Rafales, Chinese defense stocks exploded! Stock of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (maker of the JF17 and J10C jets) spiked by 36% in just two days after Operation Sindoor was turned into Cold Tandoor. This is where the global military investors started realizing that china’s weapons just proved themselves on the live battlefield against western supplied tech. This means a direct threat to every US and Israeli military contract globally. This war was not Pakistan VS India only; it was Chinese VS Western war technology too. Result? The biggest Marketing/PR campaign for Chinese weapons came through its very close ally, Pakistan. Basically this war gave a live demo to the world and it worked. Since this is the first truly high-tech large scale air combat in the 21st century and the first beyond-visual-range (BVR) air war, military experts and commentators are studying the battle in minute detail. On the other hand, Israel supported India during this conflict and India used Israeli 77 HAROP drones against Pakistan. These drones became part of the battlefield and global headlines. This did not just raise eyebrows but also lit up anti-Israel sentiment across the Muslim world especially in Kashmir and Pakistan. It turned an India vs Pakistan war to a “Hindu-Jewish alliance” against Muslims. This combination created a dual threat for the West; china’s military tech suddenly gained global attention and the US could not afford a public erosion of ‘Israeli credibility’ (this is another story that relates to Abraham Accords).
The second trigger to US was when Pakistan made a move nobody expected. A very smart move…According to internal sources, top stakeholders inside Pakistan’s war room deliberately leaked one specific meeting trail where it was debated that Israel’s involvement via India gives Pakistan a legitimate reason to escalate directly against Israel if needed. In other words, Pakistan was openly discussing the idea of targeting Israel because it had actively supported India. Pakistan as a nuclear armed country backed by China and talking about going after Israel (in an open conflict)? That is a red line they are not ready to test. They simply cannot afford it. The only solution for the US was a quick de-escalation and that is exactly what the US facilitated claiming that the world needs no ‘Nuclear War’. So what did US do immediately after announcing a ceasefire? While everyone’s focus remained on ceasefire and social media battle, a very important meeting took place in Geneva. Out of nowhere, the US and China sat down for trade talks and within just hours…
1) US Reduced tariffs from 145% to 30%
2) China Reduced tariffs from 125% to 10%
3) $600 billion freeze in trade was reopened.
So now you understand?? All of this happened because of how Pakistan performed in the air and on the ground against India. Pakistan did not just win a war; it reminded the world it never left the table. This is why Pakistan still is a threat to India despite all its chaos, political mismanagement and economic collapse.
8 Indian Mass Delusion Syndrome on Full Display
India did not just conduct an operation — it altered the regional equation. And in doing so, it exposed itself to a kind of parity it had long denied existed. This is not written in fury. It is written with the sober clarity that follows strategic catastrophe. You didn’t just miscalculate militarily. You misread doctrine, misjudged adversaries, ignored geopolitics, and violated the fundamental balance that holds this region back from the brink. For years, your ecosystem silenced every voice that warned of humility. Every analyst who questioned the overhyped Rafale deal was branded anti-national. Every former diplomat who suggested negotiation was mocked as weak. Indian media, turned complex realities into loud nationalism, drowning out strategic wisdom. The India elite surrounded itself with mirrors—not advisers. India walked into war with the illusion that a $4 trillion economy could buy supremacy. That prestige equals deterrence. That no one would dare challenge India.And yet, India was met with missiles it claimed were inoperable. Airborne platforms it called obsolete. And a doctrinal web it failed to even detect. India triggered the largest regional escalation since Kargil with no forensic investigation, no satellite imagery, no international inquiry — just nationalist theatrics. India abrogated water-sharing treaties under the Indus Waters Treaty — one of the few civilizational frameworks that even war had never dismantled. India announced: “Not a single drop of water will go to Pakistan.” That is not posturing. That is hydrological warfare — a war crime under international humanitarian law.
And then India ordered preemptive strikes, assuming fear would force capitulation. That a “pauper state” would crumble under one night of terror. Instead, Pakistan’s response forced a tactical withdrawal within hours. India believed in mythology over telemetry. India trusted media projections over satellite data. India assumed PR events were strategy. India thought silencing dissent was strength. India mistook Pakistan’s composure for collapse. And when reality hit—with Pakistan’s advanced radar and missile systems—India realized the enemy wasn’t theatrical. It was doctrinal. When your 60 jets took off, they were met by a digital kill web. Your $290 million Rafales — costing three times more than Pakistan’s entire fleet — were shadowed, jammed, and turned back. Some never returned. Your drones, meant to create Gaza-style fear, became decoys. Your S-400, touted as the region’s most advanced air defense, failed. Nine out of ten Pakistani missiles struck airbases across Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Central Command. All while you were still telling the world that Islamabad had fallen.
The Strategic Fallout
India’s role as a Quad counterbalance to China has collapsed. Western allies now fear that Chinese-integrated platforms outperform their own. Gulf States, watching this debacle, now view Pakistan and China as a serious axis of deterrence. You were not teaching a lesson. You were being taught one—live, recorded, and replayed by every war college in the world. Karachi Did Not Fall. Delhi’s Doctrine Did. Let’s be clear: Karachi is operational. Asim Munir is in control. Pakistan’s political structure remains intact. But India’s doctrine of swift, punitive retaliation is broken. Not symbolically—operationally. You could not penetrate. You could not suppress. And you could not deny the truth long enough. India’s economic muscle turned into strategic inertia. Modi’s image as a master of escalation? Gone. Instead, what’s left is a sobering realization: Missiles don’t care who wrote the press release. Doctrine eats ego for breakfast. This Was Your Strategic Miscalculation. In trying to fragment Pakistan, you exposed your fault lines: Economic overreach. Doctrinal under-preparation. Moral disregard for the rules of war. And so I ask you — where did you go wrong? You went wrong when you believed power makes you untouchable. You went wrong when you waged war without understanding the consequences. You went wrong when you thought water, war, and silence could be dictated. This wasn’t David vs. Goliath. This was Goliath talking too loud — and David listening, waiting, and then striking where it mattered. And history, Mr. Modi, does not forget moments like these.
YOU DIDN’T JUST LOSE GROUND, YOU LOST THE STRATEGIC NARRATIVE
You thought Karachi was Pakistan’s jugular. You spoke of choking its port. You moved INS Vikrant into the theatre with an air of inevitability. You told your followers Karachi would evaporate. But here is your unspoken nightmare: What you planned for Karachi — Pakistan showed it could return to Mumbai. Your eastern ports—Visakhapatnam, Chennai, Paradip—are no less exposed. This is not escalation. This is equalization. You have, through your miscalculation, delivered parity to Pakistan. Pakistan has gained respect as a strategic equal—not a footnote pauper state. Where once you dismissed its deterrent capability as “tin-can missiles,” you now face a neighbor whose conventional force can hold your trillion-dollar economy at gunpoint. This wasn’t just about firepower. This was about resolve — missiles launched not from underground silos — but from villages, with elders overseeing their launch. What you saw as poverty, the world now sees as cool hardiness. What you mistook for fragility, the world sees as doctrinal maturity. And the greatest irony? You legitimized Pakistan’s conventional deterrence. The idea that Pakistan is imploding and cannot be trusted with nuclear arms has been disproven — as the world witnessed the calm, articulate briefings of the Pakistan Air Force. Pakistan has emerged not as a reckless actor, but a disciplined nuclear power — capable of restraint, resolve, and deterrence. You didn’t just fail to teach a lesson. You destroyed your deterrence architecture. You waged a war — and walked out without leverage. And in doing so, you redefined South Asia’s balance. A balance that now precludes impulsive war on every provocation — especially from militants; you couldn’t stop on your soil.
Who Won? Who Lost?
The answer lies not in slogans or parades — but in the silence of grounded aircraft, the craters at forward air bases, and the new strategic map that is now being drawn. This letter is a call to return to facts over frenzy, to military doctrine over television drama. When a billion lives hang in the balance, we cannot afford to mistake sound bites for strategy or nationalist theatrics for battlefield truth. If India’s air force is grounded, its economy vulnerable, and its deterrence exposed—someone must say it. Not with hate, but with historical responsibility. What leads people to celebrate defeat as victory?
However, another aspect of the war has come to the forefront immediately after the war. That is the mass delusion indulged by the Indian government and press about the conflict. Rather than acknowledging its setback and reviewing its strategy, tactics and battlefield lessons, the Indians are trying to mask their defeat through outright fabrications and lies on a massive scale. It is going so far as to claim the clash an unqualified victory. To this day, most Indians are under the delusion that the Indian military has dealt Pakistan a deathly blow and emerged totally victorious and unscathed. While shrill and high octane “news” reporting is par for the course in India, and BJP, under Modi, has long shaped and exploited wide-spread jingoistic Hindu nationalist fervor, the Bollywood-like mass delusion is over the top and probably without a parallel in military history.
It is interesting to explore what lies behind such mass hysteria that is completely divorced from reality and what this means for India and its population. A quick AI search tells you the medical or psychological term for “self-fooling” is self-deception. It involves cognitive biases, denial, or rationalization to maintain certain beliefs or avoid uncomfortable truths. While not a formal medical diagnosis, self-deception is studied in psychology and psychiatry as part of defense mechanisms (e.g., denial or repression) that protect the ego from anxiety or distress. I think this self-deception refers to the process of misleading oneself to accept as true or valid what is perfectly captures the psychological reasons behind the wildly delusional Indian national mood and character. Since BJP took power, Modi and his cronies have intentionally fostered an ultra-nationalistic narrative about India’s greatness and Hindu superiority. India has launched unprecedented repressions of Muslims and deprived the Kashmir region (a Muslim majority region) its long-held autonomous status. India has embraced the fantasy to replace China as the world’s manufacturing center and top economic growth engine by opportunistically aligning with the US and the west. At the same time, it is exploring the Russia Ukraine war to enrich itself by selling Russian oil at inflated price to the west. India has boasted its economy has surpassed UK and France and will join the US and China in no time as the largest economies in the world while it is still behind Japan and Germany. To inflate its GDP, India has changed its GDP accounting method twice in the last 10 years and started to count cow dung as part of GDP as agricultural inputs. Indian GDP calculation included the value of cow dung and other manure at $4.7 billion in 2023. India has attempted to bolster its military by purchasing a hodge podge suite of brand-name weaponries from France, Russia, the US and Israel. India spent 7.8 billion Euros in 2015 to purchase 36 Rafale fighters, or 220 million Euros per jet, making it the most expensive fighter jet ever sold by that time. There was so much corruption by Modi’s cronies in the deal that Wikipedia has an entire entry dedicated to the controversy. Even after the corruption case was exposed, India decided to double down and spent another $7.4 billion to buy 26 Rafale jets for its navy just this past April. That is a staggering price tag of $285 million per Rafale, a new world record.
This Pakistan India air war was initially intended by India to show off its new found muscle until it has its ass handed back by Pakistan. Similarly, the Modi regime announced with big fanfare its Made In India campaign in 2015 to replace China as the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. It targeted manufacturing to reach 25% GDP by 2025. Instead, Indian manufacturing GDP was 13% by 2024, down from 17% in 2010. Given China’s GDP is 5 times of India that means China’s manufacturing GDP alone is 2 times as big as India’s total GDP or 16 times India’s manufacturing output.
Another interesting statistic – in Paris 2024 Olympics, India won a grand total of 6 medals – 1 silver and 5 bronze, ranking 71st among the 84 countries with medal count. This is India’s third best medal haul after 2020 and 2012. The world’s most populous country ranks between Lithuania (70th, population 2.8 million) and Moldova (72nd population 2.4 million). India’s Gold medal haul (0) was lower than Hong Kong (2). The US and China (ex. Hong Kong) each won 40 Gold medals, and 126 and 91 total medals respectively. This wild gap between India’s self-perception (or should we say self-delusion) as a great power and the cold reality of its economic and social backwardness is the reason behind the mass delusion. It’s a sad combination of inferiority complex and unfounded sense of grandeur. The dishonest propaganda by the Indian government and media is an information war against its own population. Few foreigners believe the Indian official narrative. The Indian government and media have completely lost any credibility at this point. So the real target of the disinformation campaign is the Indian population itself. A nation without basic intellectual honesty and suffering from cognitive dissonance will not rise. Instead it will be the butt of jokes by late night comedians. In the so-called “largest democracy in the world” where the rule is one Rupiah one vote, Modi is resorting to the lowest level of “democratic” playbook – keep the population dumb and get their votes through lies.
9 The Bangladesh Threat to India
India is in the British orbit. In the early 1990s, after the assassination of Rajiv Gland-the maternal grandson of Nehru; he became India’s leader after his mother Indira Ghandi was assassinated in 1984. In 1991, Rajiv was himself assassinated by the Tamil Tigers – a terror group under control of British Intelligence. The assassination was to warn India to discard its Non-Aligned Movement and to turn to the West. Over the next few years, India’s shift to the West continued, and by the time of Modi becoming the leader, this change in direction was firmed.
When Russia was sanctioned, India bean buying Russian oil at a discount and reselling it to Europe for a fat profit. This did not suit either London or New York. It was time to “remind” India about its loyalties. The focus shifted to Bangladesh. For a long time, the US coveted a naval base in the Bay of Bengal (BOB), to act as its eyes and ears in monitoring Chinese shipping, and its use of the Myanmar-China transportation corridor. A few months before Prime Minister Sheikh resigned and fled the country after a coup which eventually replaced her government with an interim one, she claimed that she was offered a hassle-free re-election in the January 7 polls if she allowed a foreign country to build an air base inside the country. In June last year, Hasina alleged that the US had intended to acquire St Martin’s Island to a naval in exchange for opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s electoral victory. She claimed that the BNP, if brought to power, would sell the island to the US, a step she vowed never to allow while in office. “If I allowed a certain country to build an air base in Bangladesh, then I would have had no problem,” Daily Star Bangladesh had quoted Hasina as saying. She, however, did not name the country that had made the offer to her but emphasized that the “offer came from a white man”.
When asked about her response to the offer, the PM said she refused the offer. The sudden coup led any to believe that the US orchestrated toppling of Hasina’s elected government and replacing it with one by people of its liking. Hasina has had troubled relations with it for quite some time now. The US, the biggest buyer of Bangladesh’s exports, had become more vocal in its calls for free and fair elections, imposing visa curbs on several members of Hasina’s ruling party and military officials in September. After fleeing to India, Hasina again claimed the US played a role in her ouster. “I could have stayed in power if I had surrendered the sovereignty of Saint Martin Island and allowed America to dominate the she said.
Why the US needs Bangladesh – Bangladesh’s increasing alignment with China and Pakistan could imperil India’s Great Power plans. The US had the main role to play in the coup against Hasina and forming an interim government, but Bangladesh holds critical place for the US and a government more cooperative than Hasina’s can better serve American strategic interests in the region. A military foothold for the US in Bangladesh can put it into a strong position against China .The military importance of Bangladesh to the US could be a key logistics node for the US or help blockading operations supporting broader US Navy goals in the Indo-Pacific region. Cooperating with the Bangladesh Navy, the U.S. Navy could use those bases to observe Chinese projects. Moreover, Bangladesh’s strategic vantage at the top of the Bay of Bengal funnel could provide the United States with an advantage in guarding the Malacca Strait, which is vital to the Chinese economy and industry.
It is the lack of access to Western platforms and financing that has driven Bangladesh to source the submarines from China. If proper financing, technology, and platform support were offered, Bangladesh could be a potential candidate for modern Western diesel-powered conventional attack submarines.
Since the US has no bases in the Bay of Bengal, during any potential conflict, Bangladesh’s naval bases could be a hub for logistics and a safe harbor for the US Navy. Bangladesh currently is building a deep seaport in Matarbari, Cox’s Bazar with the assistance of Japan, one of the most trusted and important U.S. allies since World War II. Japan could help build a bridge between these two countries to ensure that the USN could use Matarbari deep-sea port as a naval operations base during any future war by blockading potential Chinese shipments that bypasses the Malacca to use CMEC (China-Myanmar Economic Corridor) as an alternative. This would provide the United States leverage against China in the Bay of Bengal region. Bangladesh can provide the US long-range ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) advantages over China.
The BOB is at the crossroads between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean through which extensive maritime traffic transits. Although full-scale wars are unlikely to be fought in the BOB, it is a “grey zone” where there could be military operations below the threshold of high-intensity military conflict between the US/India on the one hand and China on the other. In a paper published by the Centre for International Maritime Security, University of Texas scholar Mohammad Rubaiyat Rahman says that a variety of non-military competitive actions come under the rubric of “grey zone”. Adversaries could impede economic exploitation or hamper safe passage though the BOB. An adversary country could assert his maritime interests at the expense of other States in the grey zone. China’s ceaseless endeavor to penetrate the BOB through Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka makes it a grey zone for the US and India. BOB littoral states like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have depended on China for economic and infrastructure development. China has constructed ports, roads, pipelines, and railway tracts in these littoral states. In American eyes, these developmental activities constitute China’s “grey zone activities” in the BOB of potential strategic value. To the US these projects enhance China’s military access in the region. America also fears that China is earning significant political leverage over decision-making in these countries. For many littoral states of the BOB, China is a major supplier of military hardware. Bangladesh has operationalized the country’s only submarine base, BNS Sheikh Hasina, constructed with Chinese financial and technical assistance.
According to Rahman, China sold two Type 035 G Ming-class submarines to Bangladesh in 2016, and a B-variant Ming-class submarine to Myanmar in 2021. Chinese submarine crews were posted to these nations for training purposes. These deals increase China’s competitiveness in the BOB grey zone. Thailand has signed deals with China to acquire surface warships and submarines for its navy. Myanmar’s airstrip extensions and construction of aviation hangers on the Great Coco Island suggests Chinese involvement and potential uses for maritime surveillance, Rahman writes.
Bangladesh Is Back At It Again With another “Plausibly Deniable” Territorial Claim to India
Bangladeshi Major General (retired) Fazlur Rahman, who serves as chair of the National Independent Commission of Inquiry investigating the posted on that Bangladesh should occupy India’s Northeastern States if India goes to war with Pakistan. He later preparing for this scenario might deter India, which could in turn prevent Pakistan’s possible defeat, thus averting the existential threat that India would then pose to Bangladesh. Rahman’s words followed interim Bangladeshi leader Muhammad Yunus’ scandalous comments about India’s Northeastern States during a trip to China earlier this year. They were analyzed the time as a threat to once again host Indian-designated terrorist-separatist groups if India doesn’t make to Bangladesh. Specifically, the area discussed here is the province of Arunachai Pradesh. Were Bangladesh to occupy this land, then this would result in a direct land connection to India. A brilliant move by China and Bangladesh. This would mean that China has a border with both Pakistan and Bangladesh.
In the current context of India signaling that it might launch at least one surgical strike against Pakistan in retaliation for last month’s Indian military planners can’t confidently rule out that Pakistan might coordinate its response with Bangladesh. To make matters worse, Rahman also wrote in his two posts that Bangladesh “needs to start discussing a joint military system with China”, which lays claim to India’s Northeastern State of Arunachal Pradesh. Seeing as how there’s always the possibility that another Indo-Pak war could lead to China intervening on Pakistan’s side, which Indian military planners call the two-front war scenario, this latest twist could lead to a three-front war as the incumbent Bangladeshi government aligns closer with both against India. India already felt that it was becoming encircled by China over the past decade, but this might soon evolve into a siege mentality if ties with Bangladesh continue to worsen due to its officials’ rhetoric. The new regional security system that’s taking shape as Bangladesh de facto incorporates itself into the Sino-Pak nexus could decisively shift the balance of power against India. In response, India might intensify the depth of its strategic partnership with the US, albeit more on the US’ terms than before. India cherishes its strategic autonomy, which is why it’s thus far declined to participate in the US’ of China, but that could change if the US informally makes more military-strategic support of India depend on this. Amidst its increasing encirclement that might soon evolve into a siege mentality as explained, India might feel that it has no choice but to concede to this so as to avoid being coerced into concessions by China, either scenario of which could imperil
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