Geopolitics

The Gaza Conflict – One Year On Part 3 (of a 4 Part Series)

4 Iraq

A year on since the launch of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, the conflict  has entered a new phase in its support for Gaza – and now Lebanon – with its operations taking on a more significant role in the widening regional war. These actions are not merely symbolic; the leadership of the resistance in Iraq has been focused on escalating its activities to pressure decision-makers in Tel Aviv. Over the past 12 months, the Islamic Resistance of Iraq (IRI) has refined its tactics and upgraded its weaponry, ensuring that its strikes on parts of Israel, particularly in Eilat, achieve tangible results.

Resistance Unity and a Multi-Front Strategy

The IRI’s most notable attack occurred on when a military base in the northern Golan was hit, killing two Israeli soldiers and injuring 24 others from the “elite” Golani Brigade. A week before the operation, Ali al-Mahdi, an Iraqi resistance commander, was as saying:

 “The armed factions have the full capacity and readiness in terms of fighters, weapons, and drones to fight a long war on a regional level. Therefore, any development in Hezbollah’s war with the entity will directly drag the factions into an open war without red lines … The resistance is fully prepared if it is necessary to go to Lebanon, or to continue carrying out strikes deep inside Israel with long-range missiles.”

Despite facing significant internal challenges and external pressures, the Iraqi resistance has been resolute about refusing to step back from the broader mission of taking part in the conflict.

Phases of Escalation

Phase one of the IRI’s military operations commenced shortly after Israel declared war on Gaza. At this point, resistance work focused on two primary targets: US military bases in Syria and Iraq and Israeli positions in southern occupied Palestine. Although the strikes on Israeli targets were initially limited, this phase marked the beginning of a broader strategy.

The second phase followed a truce on 2 February in which the Iraqi resistance faction Kataib Hezbollah responded to internal pressures by halting attacks on US bases and targets. In spite of this pause, Iraq’s resistance factions significantly stepped up their strikes on Israeli targets, using both drones and Al-Arqab cruise missiles to hit Israel’s northern and southern regions. These strikes became more effective as the IRI began to employ advanced weaponry, such as drones and cruise missiles, forcing Israel to acknowledge the threat posed by resistance forces to the East.

The third phase unfolded about a month after pausing operations against US bases and involved closer and direct cooperation with  Yemen  In March, they launched joint operations targeting Israeli ships, the major Mediterranean port of Haifa, and other critical infrastructure – joint efforts that were part a joint effort with the Houthis. This phase highlighted the growing military coordination not only between the Iraqi resistance and Yemeni forces but also among the various factions aligned within the region’s Axis of Resistance.

Currently, the Iraqi resistance has entered its fourth phase, which is focusing on hitting deeper into Israeli territorial depth, with an emphasis on northern areas of occupied Palestine. This escalation has coincided with Israel’s destructive attacks across Lebanon and the disruption of Hezbollah’s structure with the targeted assassinations of Nasrallah and other senior commanders.

What sets this phase apart is the increased frequency and intensity of attacks, as well as the introduction of new weaponry into the conflict. On 3 October, the Iraqi resistance announced that they hit a critical site in the southern occupied territories. Such operations take place every few days.

Iraq Asserts itself in the Axis       

The continuation and intensification of these operations by the Iraqi resistance are aimed at achieving several strategic objectives. First, the resistance seeks to reaffirm its rising position within the Axis of Resistance, which is dedicated to preserving the unity of regional efforts against Israel and preventing its fragmentation by external forces, particularly the US.

Second, it aims to pressure decision-makers in Tel Aviv to halt the aggression against Gaza and Lebanon. Third, the resistance wants to keep Israel under constant threat, reminding it that it is vulnerable to attacks from the eastern front.

Finally, the operations are intended to signal to the US that the resistance is undeterred and may resume targeting American bases if provoked, particularly if US forces escalate their involvement in of the occupation state.

There is little doubt that Washington is applying maximum pressure on the Iraqi government to rein in the IRI, as it did before the 2 February truce. But this time, Iraq’s resistance is mainly targeting Israel, which makes the US persuasion mission more difficult. There seems little possibility of retreat at this stage, regardless of the pressure applied, particularly after Tel Aviv’s assassination of Nasrallah. While ISIS was terrorizing wide swathes of Iraq, Lebanon’s Hezbollah sent fighters and cadres to support Iraqis and even participated in the confrontation.

Another Front for Israel

Tel Aviv, already stretched thin by conflicts on seven fronts, is expected to attempt strikes on the Iraqi resistance when the opportunity arises. However, Israel is currently preoccupied with its ongoing war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and its broader confrontation with Iran, making direct engagement with the Iraqi resistance less likely for the time being.

Earlier on Friday the 25th October, the IRI announced that it successfully attacked three targets in Tiberius and the occupied Golan Heights using drones, calling it the “most severe attack” among more than 180 they say to have launched against Israel since November 2023.

Still, the recent successful strike on the Golan Heights serves as a reminder of what Iraqis are prepared to do if the conflict escalates further. The leadership of the IRI is fully aware of the potential for Israeli retaliation, especially considering such as those in 2019, which targeted sectors of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU).

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced that its fighters attacked on Thursday 24th, an Israeli target in the south of occupied Palestine via an aircraft with advanced capabilities deployed for the first time. The new aircraft deployed by the Iraqi Resistance enjoys higher flight speed and huge explosive capabilities and is designed for maneuvering to bypass air defenses for quick infiltration. According to the information, the aircraft infiltrated the occupied territory from new borders unexpected by the Israeli occupation military.

Last week, Abu Alaa al-Walaei, the Secretary-General of Iraqi Kataib Sayyed al-Shuhada, revealed that the Resistance factions in Iraq have only utilized 5% of their capabilities, pointing out that the Iraqi Resistance shares the same capabilities possessed by Hezbollah and the Yemeni Armed Forces. After Nasrallah’s assassination, the IRI has also intensified its attacks on US occupation bases in Syria and Iraq.  Al-Walaei warned that if a full-scale war erupts, US forces and assets “will become hostages to the Resistance factions in Iraq,” adding that the Resistance’s capabilities will reach their bases in the Gulf region and beyond.

In a related context, Abu Ali al-Askari, the head of the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades’ Security Bureau, warned that “if an energy war breaks out, the world will lose 12 million barrels of oil daily.” 

“Either everyone enjoys resources or everyone is deprived,” he posted on his Telegram channel.

“No matter how hard the Zionist-American enemy tries to break the unity of the battlefield, we will remain committed to this principle, which has dismantled the security deterrence doctrine of the occupying entity,” he stressed.

“We drove the Americans out of Iraq, humiliated and defeated, after ten years of fighting, and we will drive them out once again from Iraq, Syria, and the Middle East.”

The Iraqi Resistance’s coordination committee released a statement after Iran’s response, warning US forces that if they were to intervene in a strike on Iran, or if “Israel” were to use Iraqi airspace to execute any strikes against Iran, then all US bases and interests in Iraq and the region would become legitimate targets. The IRI understands that the current battle is a pivotal moment in the struggle for power in the region and that Baghdad is helping in shaping the region’s future.

5 Jordan

The Jordanian Foreign Ministry confirmed the opening of a NATO liaison office in Jordan on 11 July, saying in a statement that the office was established to “foster cooperation” with the alliance. NATO announced on its website one day earlier the establishment of the Jordan liaison office, it’s first-ever in the Arab world.

Although the government of Jordan is a puppet of Israel and the US, its people are with the Resistance. The mood of the street is turning against the government. So much so, that last week, 2 IOF soldiers were injured on the Jordanian/Israeli border.  The attackers wore Jordanian military uniforms. The situation in Jordan is one incident away from toppling the government.

6 Lebanon

On October 1, Israel began its ground invasion of Lebanon. It was the same day that Iran unleashed Operation True Promise 2 on Israel.

 Within the span of three weeks, in 10,000 strikes, 93 percent of which originated with Israel, some 2500 individuals had been murdered in Lebanon. A quarter of the population has been displaced, under eviction notice from their Israeli overlords. Israel’s bombing of civilians has extended from the Beqaa Valley, and the city of Baalbek, into Beirut, beyond the Dahiyeh, to the ancient Phoenician cities of Tripoli and Tyre, in northern Lebanon. Did I mention a strike on Lebanon’s only airport? Forgive me. No sooner do the news of death and destruction by the genocidal State scroll across my screens than these are out of date.

Before the strafing of Lebanon now in progress—Israel had infiltrated that sovereign country’s supply chain of electronic devices to carry out one of “the biggest acts of mass terrorism” to date. Thousands were maimed by detonating pagers, dozens were murdered.  You already knew that Israel relies for its existence on criminality.

The free market will, in future, ensure that Israel’s remote activation of sleeper devices will lend an edge to the kind of competition that advertises thus to consumers of electronic goods: “Our products are Israel proof; they cannot kill their users.” At an astonishing clip, the Israeli criminal enterprise sped off to Lebanon. Israel’s lobbies and Western enablers have now extended tacit permission for Israel’s bombing campaign in Lebanon—visiting death and displacement on the villages of southern Lebanon, and on the southern suburbs of Beirut, where, entire city blocks have been demolished with ground-penetrating, bunker-busting American bombs.

At the time of this writing hundreds are dying daily by the genocidal State. In Gaza’s dilapidated areas,  destroyed hospital structures, in its schools-turned-shelters (28 desiccated on October 10), in its refugee camps, where the displaced huddle (dozens dead in Deir el-Balah); on the central-city streets of Beirut, where 22 martyrs had been offered up for the October 12 Sabbath; in mosques (19 souls taken on October 6), in municipalities, markets, en route to fetch food and water. No one is spared: children, women, their men; reporters, rescuers, healthcare workers. And peacekeepers in Lebanon . In its unceasing carnage, Israel has now knocked out at least five major hospitals and 32 medical centers in Beirut, in what Israel bills as “precision strikes,” in the course of “a limited incursion.”

Israel renewed its bombardment of Beirut’s southern suburb on 16 October, a day after Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati claimed Washington gave him assurances that Tel Aviv would “reduce” its attacks on the capital. The attacks mark the first Israeli strikes on the capital since over 100 were killed and injured in brutal raids on central Beirut on 10 October. Hezbollah issued a statement during the early hours of Monday, warning the Israeli enemy of the dire consequences it continues its aggression against civilians and infrastructure, and confirming that occupied Haifa and more will become the new Kiryat Shmona, as far as the Resistance’s rockets, missiles, and drones are concerned. It was this attack that targeted Wafic the head of the Coordinating Committee of Hezbollah with the Lebanese government. He survived.

Israeli warplanes raided the Haret Hreik area in Beirut’s southern suburb on Wednesday morning, hitting the neighborhood’s Shura area. Two other airstrikes hit the suburb, including one which hit a building near a school. Tel Aviv issued new evacuation orders for Lebanese civilians in Haret Hreik.

Killing of Journalists

“Whether we were targeted or saw our colleagues Farah or Issam killed, we did not stop our work or take any time off. We consider it a tribute to Farah and Issam and Rabih and spite to Israel that we continue our work. Israel’s goal is to kill journalists and force them to leave the south. They want to empty it of journalists so there are no pictures so they can control and manipulate the narrative just as they did after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in Gaza.”

“Of course, Israel kills journalists in Lebanon because they want to hide their crimes against women and children and civilians and their destruction of homes and burning of farmers’ fields. They don’t want their crimes confirmed in words and pictures. They want the world to believe they are targeting military sites, rather than civilians.”

The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon – Hezbollah released an overview of the latest field developments in southern Lebanon and the Northern Front, revealing its latest tally of losses on the Israeli-side. 

The Binyamina Operation

Israel refrained from attacking Beirut in the days after it killed over 22 and injured more than 100 Lebanon. Then, came Hezbollah’s response.

 In a complex operation, Hezbollah’s missile force launched tens of missiles at various targets in Nahariya and Akka to trigger the occupation’s Air Defense systems. Hezbollah’s air force then simultaneously deployed swarms of drones of various types, including some that were employed for the first time, toward Akka and Nahariya as well. They then published footage of what the Resistance’s latest Hoopoe mission captured of sensitive Israeli military targets and vital amenities, particularly in occupied Haifa. The Resistance then affirmed that it is listening and watching from unexpected places.

According to the statement, the Israeli occupation placed its bets on the inaction of the Resistance after its forces committed “despicable operations” and the assassinations of its leaders and senior commanders.  As a result, Hezbollah decided to teach the occupation a lesson, showcasing a fraction of its capabilities, with its leadership choosing the Golani Brigade in Binyamina as the target, which is unknown to settlers. Earlier on Sunday, a drone attack on the Israeli military base in Binyamina, south of Haifa, has killed four Israelis and 67 wounded. In reality, the figures are much higher. The drones successfully pierced through defense radars without being detected, reaching its military target: the training camp of the Golani Brigade in Binyamina , and detonated in rooms where tens of Israeli occupation soldiers, including senior officers, were preparing participate in the aggression against Lebanon. Tens were confirmed killed and injured. Whatever casualty figures released by Israel, multiply that by 2 to 5 times. They hide their losses just like the US did in Afghanistan and Iraq. Whatever the US official figures are in terms of human losses, to get the true figure, and then multiply that by 10. Some 50 ambulances rushed to the scene to transport the casualties, with helicopters also being called in.

It further warned the enemy that what they witnessed today in Binyamina is only a small preview of what awaits them if they decide to continue their aggression against Lebanon and its people.

Hezbollah issued a statement in the wake of the operation, claiming responsibility for it. “The Islamic Resistance carried out an operation on the evening of Sunday, October 13, 2024, launching a squadron of attack drones at a training camp of the Golani Brigade in Binyamina, south of Haifa,” the statement read. The Resistance said the operation was in response to “Israel’s” massacres across Lebanon, particularly its aggression on the Lebanese capital.

For all Israel’s “remarkable” prowess, they’ve managed to quickly sweep under the rug the fact that after a year of combat, they have not even been able to take out Hamas, which is slowly repopulating into Gaza—but we’re meant to believe they have entirely destroyed Hezbollah in a mere day or two of active strikes? This tally does not include the losses sustained by the occupation forces at bases, military sites, and barracks in northern and deeper areas of occupied Palestine, as noted by the Islamic Resistance operations room in Lebanon. Here, the IOF losses must be in the 100s, but the military censors such news as, like the Americans, the Israelis are “supermen” – they don’t die, but just get wounded. The actual losses are many more times the official figures. The IOF’s military machine is unable to get its act together on the border to invade Lebanon. Hezbollah is giving them no respite- hitting equipment and manpower wherever they find them. Guerilla ambushes, asymmetric warfare, destruction of bases and barracks and spying equipment carries on non-stop. Hezbollah fires around 100- 300 rockets a day since October 1, plus drones, and destruction of tanks, etc., an average of 30 operations are conducted over the past month.  

Regarding ground confrontations, the operations room emphasized that Israeli occupation forces have been unable to control or occupy any village along the frontlines fully. The report outlined recent ground confrontations, highlighting several failed attempts by Israeli forces to advance toward villages on the frontlines in an effort to capture and control them. The Golani Brigade has been decimated.

 Hezbollah has issued evacuation orders to the thieves in 25 northern settlements. What the Zionist machine did to the people of Gaza and Beirut- issuing evacuation orders before bombing those areas. The height of irony.

 Haifa is under constant daily heavy attack. Haifa is Israel’s 3rd largest city in Israel, largest and most important port.

Today, on Israeli TV, we find Smotrich crying. Remember the words of Nasrallah. “Laugh a little, you will weep a lot “.

UN Resolution 1701 – Israel’s unfinished battle- destroying Hezbollah from within and behind

On 21 October, Amos Hochstein, born in Israel in 1973 and once an Israeli tank crewman, returned to Lebanon as a US envoy, not to protect peace but to redefine it on Tel Aviv’s terms.

The irony is undeniable: Israel, having lost 28 tanks in almost as many days during its latest invasion attempt, now sends one of its former tank crew members, not in battle, but in diplomacy – to achieve through words what military force could not secure: control over Lebanon through revisions to UN Resolution 1701.

Hochstein advancing the occupation state’s interests under the guise of diplomacy from Washington.  Hochstein’s proposed changes to 1701 seek to turn it into a tool for extending Tel Aviv’s influence. This is not diplomacy for peace; it is diplomacy for power.

 Resolution 1701, passed by the UN Security Council on 11 August 2006, marked a critical point for Israel, which found itself unable to defeat Hezbollah during the July War despite its advanced military capabilities. Brokered by then-US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the ceasefire allowed Israel a face-saving exit under the guise of diplomacy rather than face a prolonged, unwinnable battle. But the resolution has since been a point of ongoing contention – one Israel has repeatedly violated.

Tel Aviv’s disregard for the resolution extends beyond territorial occupation. Since 2013, Israel has repeatedly violated Lebanese airspace to conduct strikes on Syria, treating Lebanon’s skies like an unguarded backdoor for foreign interventions.

Rewriting 1701

The amendments proposed by Hochstein to Resolution 1701 reveal Israel’s broader strategy of using international mechanisms to further its objectives. These changes would extend UNIFIL’s jurisdiction two kilometers north of the Litani River, allowing international forces to conduct searches, patrols, and inspections without requiring approval from Lebanese authorities. These inspections can include searching vehicles, private properties, and suspected weapons sites.

Effectively, this is a demand for Lebanon to cede control over its own territory – a clear infringement on its sovereignty. Under the guise of peacekeeping, this would grant Israel indirect control over Lebanon’s internal security dynamics, especially since intelligence for these operations may be influenced by, or even originate from, Israeli sources.

Hochstein’s proposal raises critical concerns about intelligence oversight: Who will guide these operations, and how might covert Israeli interests be served? The potential involvement of Israeli tech companies like Toka, co-founded by former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, is telling. Toka specializes in advanced surveillance technologies that can hack into and manipulate live or recorded video feeds from public and private security cameras, including those in ports, airports, and border crossings.  If Toka’s technology is deployed in southern Lebanon, it could potentially compromise the very systems used by UNIFIL. This technology, which leaves no trace, could be exploited to monitor Hezbollah and Lebanese military movements, all under the guise of international peacekeeping operations. The consequences would be profound: a complete erosion of Lebanon’s security, replaced by a surveillance network manipulated by Israel to serve its own strategic interests. Technologies like Toka’s suggest a more calculated plan, enabling 24/7 monitoring of Hezbollah-controlled areas under the Litani River. Armed with precise intelligence, Israel could execute targeted strikes or assassinations akin to those witnessed during the 2006 war, turning southern Lebanon into a zone of perpetual surveillance and intermittent violence – all under the pretense of adhering to Resolution 1701.

Resolution 1701, meant to establish peace, is being reshaped into a surveillance tool – a mechanism for Israel to achieve what it could not through military means. The use of sophisticated surveillance technology, the selective enforcement of ceasefire terms, and the involvement of international forces all serve to undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty, rendering “peace” a hollow word.

Israel’s calls to ‘liberate’ Lebanon from Hezbollah and elect a president aim to sideline Amal Party leader and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, a longtime Hezbollah ally who has overnight become the most powerful authority in the country. In response to Hochstein’s demands, Berri firmly rejected the so-called ‘1701+,’ which involves amending the UN resolution to favor Israeli terms. He also dismissed any discussion of a presidential election while Lebanon remains under assault. Israel opposes Berri’s mediation role and prefers to secure a ceasefire with a compliant president, bypassing Hezbollah’s allies.

 Berri’s insistence on keeping Resolution 1701 unchanged was met by Israeli attacks targeting Amal Movement strongholds, from Beirut’s Jnah area to the southern cities of Nabatieh and Tyre.  Berri is in the “danger zone,” with Israel seeing him as Hezbollah’s mouthpiece and, therefore, a potential target for Tel Aviv. The surge of foreign mediation activity came after three key developments: direct Israeli attacks on European-led UNIFIL forces, successful resistance strikes deep into Israeli territory (including Netanyahu’s Caesarea residence), and Hezbollah’s effective pushback against Israeli incursions in southern Lebanon.

Before and after Hochstein’s visit, Israel sent clear signals – most notably, intense air raids on Beirut’s southern suburbs – that “mediation” was more about gauging Lebanon’s willingness to capitulate. But on the ground where the real battles take place, Hezbollah’s resistance, far from defeat, was already bolstering Lebanon’s negotiating stance.

Paradoxically, the caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, a holdover from the last Lebanese government, criticized Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf over Tehran’s “blatant interference in Lebanese affairs and an attempt to establish an unacceptable guardianship over Lebanon,” even as he welcomed Hochstein, a former Israeli tank crewman, and remained silent on the tons of US missiles aiding Israel’s slaughter of thousands of Lebanese civilians. The Lebanese fear their leaders may falter again, as Mikati recently did, undermining the unified stance that Berri has worked to maintain against external pressures. While Lebanon’s resistance in the south remains a crucial asset, some politicians appear too eager to revisit the humiliations of the 17 May Agreement era or resign themselves to a weak, symbolic role akin to that of a Lebanese Abu Mazen. Hochstein’s mediation is over, as Berri described the American envoy’s visit as a ‘last chance.’  Berri politely told him “to take a hike”.

Hezbollah’s New Leader

Naeem Qassem has been the deputy leader for the past 3 decades. He is now the new leader of Hezbollah. On assuming this office a few days ago, he immediately ramped up the volume of attacks on Israel with ferocity. The murder of Nasrallah has only brought more attacks on Israel. Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem, confirmed on 30 October in his first speech as secretary-general that the Lebanese resistance is prepared for a long war against Israel, while also challenging the Israeli army’s ground forces to advance deeper into Lebanon.

“All our preparations are based on the possibility of waging a long-term war – – the enemy will not be able to rely on time because its losses are great, and it will be forced to stop its aggression – – We say to Israel, are you already done? Don’t you want to reach the Litani or at least go a little bit deeper into Lebanon? You haven’t even managed to gain a single victory.” He confirmed that Israeli troops have still not made it past the edges of the border out of fear of the resistance’s ambushes, challenging them to advance deeper into Lebanon.

“The enemy must know that its bombing of our villages and cities will not make us retreat … the resistance is strong and was able to send a drone to Netanyahu’s bedroom,” Qassem added, referring to the operation which saw a Hezbollah drone explode into the window of Netanyahu’s bedroom at the premier’s private residence in Caesarea on 19 October. 

Qassem noted that Hezbollah targets military infrastructure, while Israel focuses its attacks on civilians.

 Israel’s Losses on the Frontlines

It is worth noting that this tally only includes Israeli losses since the start of the ground invasion of southern Lebanon. In the statement, Hezbollah confirmed the elimination of 95 Israeli troops while 900 others were wounded. This tally includes both military officers and soldiers.  As for the destruction of military systems and vehicles, Hezbollah said that its fighters destroyed 42 Merkava main battle tanks, four armored D9 bulldozers, two Humvees, an armored vehicle, and an armored personnel carrier. The Resistance’s Air Defense Force downed three Hermes 450 drones and two Hermes 900 drones. Israeli Hezbollah’s Military Media said that the toll, released late Thursday, does not include Israeli losses incurred in long-range and indirect attacks that targeted bases, military sites, settlements, and occupied cities.

The story continues in Part 4

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