1. West Bank
2. Lebanon
3.  Syria
4.  Turkey
5. Iran
6. Egypt
7. Yemen
8. Saudi Arabia
9. Gaza
10. Water Geopolitics
11. War on Heritage

After the Gaza ceasefire, Israel still did not satisfy its blood lust, and its greed to steal more land. Let’s take a look at its short-term plans for the region and the potential for opposition to Israel’s expansionist agenda.

1 West Bank

Since 5 December 2024, the security apparatuses of the Palestinian Authority (PA) have launched an extensive media, political, and military campaign in the northern West Bank, with a particular focus on Jenin and its refugee camp. Branded as a fight against “outlaws” and “Iran’s proxies,” the operation escalated on 14 December into a large-scale military-security offensive. It began with the extrajudicial killing of teenager Rubhi Shalabi and the deaths of two others, including a prominent leader in the Jenin Brigade, the local branch of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) Quds Brigades.This campaign was accompanied by widespread incitement among Fatah loyalists, PA employees, and university students aligned with the authority, alongside attacks on both public and individual expressions of dissent.

At the time of writing, clashes in Jenin persist under a media blackout, with the camp facing an unprecedented level of danger amid “additional offensive and defensive measures” by Netanyahu. 

The prelude before the campaign. Many sources declined to be named for fear of retribution. Their accounts consistently pointed to a decision that was neither a Fatah consensus nor fully endorsed by the PA’s leadership. Instead, the campaign’s driving force appears to be President Mahmoud Abbas himself, supported by a close circle of confidants. Notably, Abbas made sweeping changes to the security apparatus before and during the operation. Insiders inform that “Abu Mazen [Abbas] removed the old guard who could challenge him and brought in a younger generation eager to please him without question.”

Simultaneously, reports of leadership changes within the National Security Forces (NSF) emerged, though details remain unclear. 

Reshuffling in Ramallah 

 From September to December, The overhaul of the police leadership soon became evident as a strategic move to involve the force in direct confrontations with resistance groups. These changes, excluding the leadership of General Intelligence and Military Intelligence, cemented Abbas’ control over the security apparatus and underscored his ability to maintain authority despite ongoing discussions about his succession. The reshuffle aimed to install younger leaders eager to prove themselves through loyalty and execution of Abbas’ directives, particularly regarding operations against resistance groups. 

Field analysis and eyewitness accounts reveal the police’s prominent role as the operation’s public face. They issued frequent statements about arresting “wanted individuals” and manned checkpoints at the camp’s perimeters. 

Meanwhile, incursions into the camp are carried out by NSF, supported by Preventive Security and Military Intelligence officers. Snipers occupy strategic points, ensuring significant firepower control over the camp’s streets. Resistance factions have responded fiercely, escalating beyond warning shots to more direct engagements. This shift has led to increasingly intense clashes and higher casualties on both sides. It was also noted that the forces that entered the city and the camp were largely from outside Jenin Camp. This appeared to be due to factors related to the secrecy of the preparations, as the security services called upon small specialized units from various regions. In this operation, a mixture of small groups was utilized, but their movements were controlled by a central command that managed the operation.

Following the operation, on 24 December 2023, the Israeli channel I24NEWS quoted an official in the PA saying that some Palestinian officers refused to enter Jenin due to the high number of casualties during the operation, internal tension, and fears of being accused of betraying the resistance. According to sources close to Abbas and reports in the Israeli media, the ailing president seeks to maintain his position and demonstrate the PA’s ability to govern effectively to satisfy US, Israelis, and allied Arab states. Resistance factions view this as the PA’s final opportunity, facilitated by Israeli security and military support for the past seven months, to stay in control and ward off a potential collapse. Israeli officials see the outcome in Jenin as a microcosm of the PA’s broader control over the West Bank. Success could lead to similar operations in other camps, while failure may signal the PA’s decline.

Hebrew newspaper Haaretz quoted an Israeli security source as saying, “Jenin is now a miniature model that reflects the situation of the entire West Bank. If the PA stumbles there, its control over the entire West Bank will be in danger.” However, he stressed that “the PA apparatuses currently enjoy Tel Aviv’s support to operate despite the criticism.” “If the PA succeeds in Jenin, it is likely that it will try to expand its activity to additional camps in the northern West Bank. However, if it fails or we force it out of there, this may indicate the beginning of the end of its rule,” he added. According to the Israeli Reserve Colonel Udi Ebenthal, there are two approaches toward the PA in Israel. The first is the extreme right-wing approach that wants to annex the West Bank, expand settlements, and dissolve the PA, which would make Israel directly responsible for millions of Palestinians. The second approach is the security approach, which stipulates “maintaining the PA’s work as a moderate body that recognizes Israel and coordinates with it in the security sphere, on the basis that this will contribute to stability and alleviate the civilian and security burden on the army.” Despite Abbas’ efforts, opposition has emerged within Fatah itself. Additionally, three Fatah Central Committee members reportedly urged Abbas to halt the operation and pursue dialogue. Abbas dismissed these appeals, insisting that a military solution was the only viable path. Before the operation, US Security Coordinator General Mike Fenzel met with PA security leaders to dangle the bait of a  to boost the training of its special forces and bolster its supplies. Despite US requests, Israel refused to supply the PA with additional weapons, citing concerns over their potential use against Israeli targets.

The Resistance’s Stance

The Jenin Battalion, central to this conflict, has refused to disarm but is willing to reduce armed visibility. Despite this, clashes have intensified, resulting in casualties on both sides; however, the battalion asserts that its actions aim to warn, not kill, security personnel, except when unavoidable.

The group sees the PA campaign as politically motivated, aimed at appeasing the Israeli occupation and preparing to oversee Gaza post-war while also aligning with US-backed normalization deals involving Saudi Arabia and Israel. Islamic Jihad views Ramallah’s actions as a fight for its survival, one that ultimately serves Israel’s interests by deepening Palestinian divisions.

Caught between avoiding an internal conflict and preserving its military presence, Islamic Jihad has sought compromises, such as limited disarmament agreements, all rejected by the PA. The movement hopes political and popular pressure will force Ramallah to back down or that Israel’s intervention will redirect the focus toward the occupation.

IOF announces start of military operation in Jenin, the occupied West Bank, as the Palestinian Resistance moves to confront invading forces.

The Israeli military has announced the start of a new military campaign in the West Bank city of Jenin, which it dubbed the “Iron Wall”. The Israeli military, Shin Bet, and “Border Guards” began an operation meant to “foil terrorism” in Jenin, which will continue for the coming days, asserting that a large IOF force has advanced on Jenin from all directions after the Shin Bet disrupted internet communications throughout the Jenin Refugee Camp. The military operation in Jenin began with a UAV attack on infrastructure. An Israeli Army chopper opened machine gun fire toward Jenin Camp, while occupation forces bombed an empty vehicle in the camp’s surroundings just as a special force was infiltrating the area of Jabiriyyat.

The Resistance in the West Bank swiftly activated sirens in Jenin after an Israeli special force was discovered as its vehicle exited the Dotan checkpoint, and the Resistance waged a heavy confrontation against the force in Jenin’s al-Hadaf neighborhood. Al-Quds Brigades – Jenin announced that it’s advancing along several axes, showering them with a barrage of bullets along the al-Hadaf Axis. Similarly, Jenin’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades announced that its fighters are confronting Israeli forces with machine gun fire, securing direct hits against them. The Palestinian Health Ministry announced that 10 martyrs and 45 wounded were taken to the hospital following the Israeli aggression.

The Israeli occupation is seeking to sow death and destruction in the West Bank after Gaza in light of the bloody military operation they are carrying out. Israeli drones fitted with loudspeakers ordered people to leave their homes in Jenin on Thursday, residents said, as the military demolished several houses during the third day of a major operation in the West Bank city. Armored bulldozers have torn up roads, and hundreds of residents have fled their homes in the camp after being ordered to evacuate. “Yesterday, we did not want to leave; we were at home,” said 16-year-old Hussam Saadi. “Today, they sent down a drone to our neighborhood, telling us to leave the camp and that they will blow it up.” The raid, the third by the Israeli military in Jenin in less than two years, has drawn international concern.

The head of the Israeli Shin Bet security agency and the chief of staff conducted an evaluation of the situation in Jenin amid The head of Shin Bet was quoted as saying, “The time for the West Bank has come.” The Israeli forces are currently carrying out widespread arrests in Jenin, Ya’bad, and Qabatiya.  The Israeli occupation forces appear determined to evacuate residents from the Jenin refugee camp to carry out their military objectives.

Palestinian Resistance forces in the occupied West Bank   have continued to confront Israeli forces amid days of intense confrontations. Israeli troops, who have besieged homes and assaulted Palestinians during their incursions into towns, are facing fierce resistance from local factions. The al-Quds Brigades – Jenin Battalion announced that its fighters in the Burqin unit engaged in fierce battles with Israeli forces near a besieged house. The group reported using heavy gunfire and explosives against Israeli troops and vehicles, claiming confirmed hits. Similarly, the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade – Jenin Battalion stated that its fighters were involved in clashes with Israeli forces near the besieged house in the town of Burqin, west of Jenin. Resistance fighters detonated an explosive device targeting an Israeli bulldozer in Jenin while engaging in combat with Israeli forces. Special Forces infiltrated the area, surrounded a house, and used loudspeakers to order its occupants to evacuate. Israeli drones also launched several missiles at the site.

Israeli forces deployed reinforcements, including a military bulldozer, and began demolishing parts of the house. Burqin Mayor Hassan Sobh accused Israeli forces of using women as human shields and forcing families out of the besieged residence before initiating the demolition. Despite these measures, Resistance fighters inside the house reportedly refused to surrender, continuing to fire at Israeli forces. An Israeli drone also opened fire in the Dammaj neighborhood of intensifying the violence.

With Trump as the new US President, he has promised Israel a green light to annex the West Bank, just as he green-lighted the annexation of the Golan Heights in his first term. Based on this understanding, Israel has started its moves on the West Bank. Time will tell if this operation by Israel will be successful. The danger lies in the fact that most of the Palestinians living within the West Bank have relatives across the border in Jordan – and these number more than 3 million. If the IOF performs in the West Bank like they did in Gaza, the Palestinians in Jordan won’t stay silent.

2 Lebanon

Presidential elections in Lebanon: A battle for sovereignty or foreign control?

Lebanon’s presidential elections reveal a troubling yet familiar reality. While leaders speak of sovereignty, foreign powers control the presidency, with ambassadors and threats dictating the outcome – leaving the Lebanese people to bear the consequences.

After over two years of political paralysis, the Republic of Lebanon finally elected its 14^th president – former commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Joseph Aoun – on 9 January; however, this victory was not for the Lebanese people. Instead, it was a product of international pressures, with namely the United States, Saudi Arabia, and France pulling the strings. Lebanon is perhaps the only country where a president is elected without actually running for office. Here, presidential candidates are not required to present electoral programs or articulate an economic, social, or political vision. Beginning with the Ottoman era, through the French mandate, during the Syrian presence, and now under the influence of western and Arab envoys, the country’s presidency has been dictated by outside powers. Armed with threats of sanctions, blockades, and delays in reconstruction, these envoys impose candidates without room for debate, reducing Lebanon’s democratic process to little more than scripted theatre. As long-time Lebanese Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri once quipped, perhaps it would be simpler to let ambassadors sit in the seats of MPs, as they are the ones truly deciding the president. Other names, including Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, former finance minister Jihad Azour, and General Security Director General Elias al-Bisri, have gained traction largely because of foreign support. Among them, General Aoun stands out. Enjoying US, Saudi, and French approval despite lacking broad local support, Aoun was elected as the new president of Lebanon, putting an end to a more than two-year presidential vacuum and political stalemate. The irony lies in the fact that the Arab candidate for Lebanon’s presidency – which is the highest Christian position in the country – lacks the support of Lebanon’s Christian political forces.

For ordinary Lebanese citizens, the stakes could not be higher. While politicians and foreign envoys were haggling over the presidency, the country remains in a state of collapse, the population is experiencing multidimensional poverty, and billions of dollars in bank deposits have evaporated. In Lebanon’s political arena today, the Shia duo – Hezbollah and the Amal Movement – representing a core part of the Axis of Resistance has centered its negotiations on the presidency of the Republic. This critical leverage is aimed at securing gains that might mitigate the impact of the Israeli war, which resulted in significant destruction in the Bekaa, south Lebanon, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Shia duo’s demands include guarantees for reconstruction, the appointment of the next army commander, and a commitment to long-term economic stability. In the first round of presidential elections, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement decided to delay the election of a president. This move was a deliberate message: No president could be elected without their approval. Following negotiations, the parties reportedly received assurances from Army Commander Joseph Aoun and the Saudi, US, and French envoys regarding their key demands. In the second round of voting, the duo cast their ballots for Aoun, resulting in his election as president. Ultimately, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement dictated the outcome of the presidential election. The Ministry of Finance remains under their control, and Saudi Arabia has committed to the reconstruction efforts with firm guarantees. Until Lebanon can reclaim its decision-making processes and prioritize the welfare of its people over external pressures, its presidency will remain a pawn in a much larger game of international power politics.

On Lebanon, the IRGC Commander Salami stated that Hezbollah compelled “Israel” to accept a ceasefire by targeting Tel Aviv and Haifa, as “Israel’s” political and economic hubs, effectively brought the war to an end. “Israel is now defeated, its demise is accelerating, while Hezbollah’s power continues to grow,” and also asserted that the balance of power is shifting once again, declaring, “We are witnessing the beginning of Israel’s demise.”

Arms Flowing into Lebanon 

The fall of Assad coincided with significant security shifts in Lebanon.  This development compelled Palestinian factions to surrender positions outside the camps, prompting leading groups like Fatah al-Intifada to redistribute weapons among their members while retaining a portion to deceive authorities. This was only the beginning of a broader arms influx. Weapons looted from Syrian military depots flooded into Lebanon, sold at extremely low prices. A gun could be purchased for as little as $25, fuelling an arms trade that empowered militants and criminal gangs alike. The proliferation of cheap, accessible weapons spurred fears of internal conflict as groups in Sabra, Shatila, Naameh, Khaldeh, and other areas began stockpiling arms. Lebanese authorities have exposed intricate smuggling routes driving the flow of arms into militant-controlled areas. Disguised as poultry shipments from Akkar, these weapons ended up in the possession of armed groups.

Meanwhile, a meeting in Damascus brought together senior Lebanese and Syrian security officials to discuss multiple issues, including border security and arms smuggling prevention. With Hezbollah weakened and weapons saturating the streets, the threat of renewed sectarian violence feels increasingly tangible. The collapse of Assad’s government has set off a chain reaction, spilling across borders and destabilizing Lebanon’s already fragile state. There has been hardly any mention of the fact that since the end of November till now, more than 100 planes landed at Beirut. These flights originated in Cyprus; a base for Western Intel agencies. The Mossad, British and French Intelligence, along with the CIA have been sending arms into Beirut, calling them “medical equipment ‘, etc. No one is fooled. These arms are being distributed to pro-western, anti-Hezbollah groups- all in preparation of the coming sectarian war.

In addition, pressure is being put on the new Lebanese government to incorporate Hezbollah into the Lebanese Army. Once this is done, then Hezbollah will be forced to disarm. Next, the US, the Trinity and Saudi Arabia will use this “toothless” Lebanese Army to act as Israel’s “policeman in Lebanon, in just the way the PA acts for it in the West Bank. The Israeli army carried out large-scale destruction of infrastructure in southern Lebanon on 22 January, days before the deadline for its withdrawal from the country as part of the ceasefire agreement reached late last year.

Israel’s Vindictive Actions

“The occupation army continued to burn and detonate houses in the town of Taybeh, and carried out a search operation during its movement in the town’s neighborhoods, also carrying out a violent explosion in the town of Kfar Kila a short while ago,” Lebanon’s National News Agency (reported on Wednesday afternoon. 

Israeli forces also in the town of Hanin as Lebanese Civil Defense crews were working to clear rubble and remove bodies of citizens killed by Israeli strikes throughout the war. Since the end of November till current, the IOF has bombed multiple villages, towns and other property in South Lebanon, as well as killing and wounding many Lebanese civilians.

Hezbollah has shown tremendous restraint, and is showing the Lebanese people that Israel is kept in check only by force- Hezbollah power. They have shown restraint with dignity, which proved to the world who is acting with honor and who is behaving like vandals. But, once the cease fire ends in 2 days, let’s see what happens then. The deal, based on UN Resolution 1701, is meant to see the Lebanese army dismantle Hezbollah’s presence and infrastructure south of the Litani River, while Israeli forces are required to withdraw from the country. This is supposed to take place within the 60-day period that began in late November and is set to end in five days. Israel has the agreement more than 1,000 times since it took effect. 

“The enemy must commit to withdrawing completely from all Lebanese territories on Sunday, otherwise Monday will be another day,” Ghalib Abu Zeinab, a member of Hezbollah’s political council,  on 21 January.  Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad said on Monday that the resistance will confront Israeli forces “with all possible means and methods” if they do not withdraw. 

3 Syria

Israel unleashed its first direct strike on Jolani’s troops: The Israeli Air Force has carried out its first strike on the forces of the terrorist group HTS, which has seized power in Syria. The attack targeted a convoy of militants in the province of Quneitra to prevent them from getting closer to IDF forces on the ground. This was right around the time that Erdogan issued a loud rebuke toward Netanyahu, calling on him to stop striking Syria as tensions continue rising between Turkey and its Syrian proxies and Israel. “The aggressive actions of the forces attacking Syrian territory, Israel, in particular, must come to an end as soon as possible. Otherwise, it will cause unfavorable outcomes for everyone.”

We’re left to speculate whether this rising new threat is chief amongst reasons for Netanyahu finally acquiescing to a ceasefire he rejected many times before. With the IDF’s continued dismal performance—in particular its major failure in incurring into Lebanese territory—Netanyahu may have chosen to reduce the burden of the multi-fronted war in order to free up resources to concentrate on the potential new threat from the Turkish-Syria axis. Or this could just be an empty threat from “the Mouth” aka Erdogan, as recent reports suggest that Turkey and Israel have reached some common “understandings”.

Violent clashes between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) continue in northeast Syria amid multi-sided negotiations for the future control of the strategic region and the nature of the new Syrian state. Eight SNA fighters were killed and eight SDF fighters wounded in clashes near the Tishreen Dam, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) on 20 January, bringing the death toll from fighting between the two groups to 440 people since December. The SDF is backed by US troops occupying northeast Syria, home to the country’s major oil fields and grain-producing regions. The SNA (Syrian National Army) and SDF have been fighting at the dam and nearby city of Manbij since HTS took control of the Syrian state on December 8. HTS militants representing the new government in Damascus appear ready to join the conflict on the side of the SNA. On Monday 14th December, a military convoy of HTS militants has arrived on the frontlines near the Tishreen Dam area. Amid the fighting, three sets of negotiations are taking place: between the US, SDF, and HTS, between Turkey and HTS, and between the SDF and HTS. In an effort to bring northeast Syria under state control, HTS officials are demanding that the SDF, viewed as an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), lay down their weapons and join a new Syrian army as individuals. SDF commander Mazloum Abdi has stated his group is willing to integrate into the Defense Ministry, but as “a military bloc” and without dissolving. As usual, the SDF is a proxy force backed by the US and Israel. They only follow their master’s instructions.

The HTS government is also demanding that Druze armed groups in Suweida in southern Syria give up their arms and join the new army. However, the Druze have refused the request, citing the need to protect their community until a permanent government is formed. The Druze in Suwayda and elsewhere in Syria were the victims of several massacres by HTS and its fellow Al-Qaeda spin-off, ISIS, during the US-backed covert war on Syria that began in 2011. Besides these forces the new government in Damascus has to contend with the most serious threat to its survival- Assad’s former army units loyal to him. This is Syria’s most elite group, called the Tiger Forces. One group of these forces- amounting to between 1 and 2 brigades crossed over into Iraq- fully equipped with tanks and air defense equipment. This group is led by Maher Assad- Bashar’s brother. Another larger group of the Tiger Forces-also well-equipped- have moved into the Alawite stronghold in the Latakia province. They are waiting to see how things play out before they make any moves. 

 4 Turkey

Israel’s recent war on Gaza has laid bare the ambitions of Netanyahu’s government to expand the occupation states in Palestine. This drive comes amidst internal debates over the identity of the so-called Jewish state – a discussion that began well before 2023’s Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, during Netanyahu’s standoff with the Supreme Court, and continues to this day. Tel Aviv’s intentions have rapidly translated into action. The government has shown determination to re-occupy Gaza, extended its reach into southern Lebanon, and taken control of significant parts of Mount Hermon and the Quneitra region in Syria. Politicians and commentators in Israel openly call for settlement expansion in these areas, reflecting a long-standing expansion of the Zionist project.

These moves starkly contrast with the repeated calls from Arab and Muslim-majority countries for a two-state solution that requires Israel to withdraw to pre-1967 borders. Meanwhile, Israeli officials remain steadfast in their plans to consolidate control over the West Bank and formally annex the rest of Syrian Golan Heights. Currently, Israel has occupied around 500 square kms of Syrian land in the region between the Golan and Damascus- with Israeli tanks some 20-25 kms from the outskirts of Damascus.

Recent developments in Syria expose Israel’s growing appetite for expansion. Following the departure of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from Damascus last month, Israel launched its most extensive air and ground offensive in Syria since 1974. 

A Divided Syria 

Official Israeli statements have increasingly referenced Syria’s internal affairs, like foreign Minister Israel Katz recent intervention to “protect Syrian minorities” such as the Kurds and Druze, signaling broader strategic ambitions. Erdogan has also weighed in, warning that unchecked Israeli expansion could extend “as far as Anatolia.” Syria’s current condition has made the country a shared interest between Ankara and Tel Aviv.  Syria has increasingly become the stage for a fragmented geopolitical tug-of-war. Turkey and Israel appear to be carving out spheres of influence rather than heading toward direct confrontation. The de facto leader in Syria, Ahmad al-Sharaa has already assured Israel of his intention to hinting at a preference for coexistence over confrontation. This competition reflects broader international interests in Syria’s strategic geography, a vital nexus in the heart of the Levant connecting the Persian Gulf, Turkey, Asia, and Europe. Over the years, powerful players, including Iran, Russia, the US, and Israel, have intervened, each seeking to secure their interests in the country.

Turkey has relied heavily on HTS to project its power, culminating in symbolic victories such as Turkish spy chief Ibrahim Kalin praying at the Umayyad Mosque and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s high-profile meeting with Sharaa atop  in Damascus.  Meanwhile, Israel is exploring its own tools for intervention. A steady stream of reports of by HTS fighters against minorities could provide Israel with a pretext for deeper involvement.

Netanyahu’s Regional Vision 

Netanyahu’s ambitions are not limited to Syria. In a New York meeting with Erdogan before 7 October 2023, the two leaders discussed reviving the project to export gas. While the feasibility of this initiative remains uncertain, it highlights their mutual interest in exploiting Syria’s geography. 

Netanyahu has also consistently emphasized the need to control the West Bank as part of his vision to consolidate a “Jewish state.” Recent calls within Israel to retain strategic positions in southern Lebanon underline a broader agenda to expand influence under the guise of protecting minorities. This strategy, sometimes framed as an “Alliance of Minorities,” is a recurring theme in the occupation state’s West Asia policy. Turkey, too, has leveraged sectarian movements to extend its reach. Turkish flags fly in northern Lebanon, while HTS fighters stage parades in Syria’s Deir Ezzor. Lebanese Druze leader has sided with Ankara, while Druze Sheikh Muwafaq Tarif in Israel has advocated cooperation with Tel Aviv, reflecting a region divided by competing loyalties and strategic alignments. Israeli officials have also consistently called for alliances with Syrian Kurds, while France and Germany seek to establish channels with Syria’s Christians, Kurds, and Alawites. These actions prompted Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to ironically criticize Paris’ meddling in Syria’s affairs. Israeli officials are considering a conference to divide Syria into cantons, further illustrating Tel Aviv’s growing interest in reshaping the region’s borders. Energy Minister Eli Cohen has proposed a regional conference to stabilize Syria, facilitating an eventual Israeli withdrawal while safeguarding strategic interests. 

The name of the Rothschild/Rockefeller game-plan is to Balkanize all these countries, so no central authority can pose any future threats to them. Furthermore, as per their usual MO, they will create conflict between these small broken-up enclaves, thus further wasting their potential in internal fighting, while Israel and the US sit back and watch it all go up in flames.

Mediterranean Rivalries 

Netanyahu’s ultimate goal appears to be expanding Israeli control into Syria, leveraging minority alliances to justify intervention. Simultaneously, Erdogan aims to assert dominance through Islamist blocs, creating a complex web of competing interests. Amid these developments, Lebanon has emerged as a focal point for broader Mediterranean rivalries. The country’s first official visit was from Cyprus, with Italy and Greece extending the initial invitations. This coincided with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) meeting with Greece’s president and the signing of a bilateral strategic treaty. After years of waning influence in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, reacting to Turkish expansion, is renewing its clout in the country among its traditional Sunni allies and other sects, with the Saudi ambassador notably meeting with the Alawite Islamic Council in Tripoli, and throwing his weight behind the nomination of Christian former army chief Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s new president. These moves are part of Riyadh’s new strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean to thwart Ankara’s plays for dominance.

The competition for Syria and the wider region is no longer confined to military engagements but has evolved into a broader struggle for economic and political dominance. Syria will remain a key, albeit fragmented state caught between the ambitions of regional powers.

The story continues in Part 2.