8 The Geopolitics of Trade – INSTC vs. IMEC, or the East vs. the West
The “Eastern-Backed “International North-South Corridor aka IMEC
The recent Israeli-Iran conflict has put India’s regional connectivity strategy, such as the INSTC in the spotlight. In 2024, the Eastern section of the North-South Corridor increased volumes three-fold. The provided map illustrates the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multifaceted transport system developed by Iran, Russia, and India. The INSTC as it is imagined is nothing less than a geopolitical game-changer: a 7,200-km trade corridor linking St. Petersburg to Mumbai, one that wires India into the trade circuits of Central Asia and enables Russia to reach new and lucrative markets in the Global South via the Persian Gulf.
Central Corridor: Initiating from Mumbai’s Port, this route links to Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, crosses Iranian territories, and then proceeds along the Caspian Sea to reach Russia’s Olya and Astrakhan Ports.
Western Corridor: This corridor connects Azerbaijan’s railway network to Iran via the Astara border points, further extending to India’s Mumbai Port through sea routes.
Eastern Corridor: Connecting Russia to India, this route traverses through the Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
We shall explain the importance of this trade route for both Russia and India, Also, the danger it represents to the Americans and British, and their urgency to substitute an alternative route to the INSTC, called the India-Middle East Economic Corridor–IMEC.
The Importance of INSTC to India
For India, the INSTC represents a homegrown alternative to China’s Belt and Road, a new avenue into European markets, a fount of cheap coal and oil from Russia, and an insurance policy should there ever be a falling out with the West. For Russia, it offers an escape from the vice of Western sanctions and a promise of privileged position in the trade flows of tomorrow. For Iran and Azerbaijan, the INSTC is an opportunity to extract developmental and trade concessions from the project’s primary backers. And for the BRICS and the Global South, the INSTC is a chance to flex the bloc’s muscles by actualizing a project that reroutes trade flows beyond the reach of US sanctions.
This is the vision of the INSTC. The reality, however, is entirely different, as the project has been largely stalled for over 20 years, now requiring significant investments to fill rail gaps and expand terminal capacity in the Caspian Sea legs. Moreover, US sanctions continue to hang like a sword over the project, sapping its momentum. The INSTC is not a new vision, having been originally conceived in 2000 and then ratified by India, Iran, and Russia in 2002. It wasn’t long before the original three were joined by other interested parties, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, Oman, and even Syria – all of which saw value in the INSTC drive to establish a direct trade route between the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, and the Caspian Sea, and then further into Northern Europe via Russia. From a raw efficiency perspective, the INSTC route represents an attractive alternative to traditional Suez Canal trade flows, with the potential to reduce transit times by up to 40% and freight costs by up to 30%. Fast-forward nearly 25 years and the INSTC project has still not been realized. This glacial pace is more a consequence of geopolitics than anything else. The delays mostly trace back to Iran, a founding member and key leg of the trade corridor, which has often been targeted by Western sanctions to the detriment of the INSTC. These , at various, made it difficult for Indian and Russian companies to operate in Iran.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed by Iran and several world powers including the United States, was assumed to be a turning point. The agreement lifted sanctions and paved the way for the INSTC’s return to the region’s diplomatic agenda. India wasted no time in moving forward, and signed an MOU to develop and operate Iran’s Chabahar Port, a rival to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and presumed terminal of choice for the INSTC. But then in 2018, Iran became state non-grata once again when the Trump administration pulled out of the JCPOA and began re-applying sanctions.
Yet this new sanction regime has failed to put a halt to the INSTC like before. What has changed? The world of 2024 is not that of two decades ago, and the middle powers of the INSTC are much more willing to assert their own interests at the expense of Washington’s preference. So much is evident when one assesses the interests and strategies of the main INSTC players. The first and arguably most important of the main INSTC backers is India, which has long viewed the trade corridor as indispensable for strengthening its trade ties with Central Asia, a region that is rich in hydrocarbons. However, these trade links must be forged without the involvement of New Delhi’s arch-rival, Pakistan. The permanently fraught status of India-Pakistan relations explains why the first leg of the INSTC is maritime rather than over land. The INSTC’s linking up at Chabahar is another geopolitically loaded decision, as it allows for Indian access to the critical Afghanistan market via a new Iranian rail link from Chabahar to Zahedan. Any advance in trade relations between India and Afghanistan reduces the latter’s historical economic overreliance on Pakistan, thus eroding the ‘strategic depth’ that Islamabad has long enjoyed in Afghan politics and society.
The Importance of INSTC to Russia
Russia and its peoples are blessed by providence; the huge landscape and the rich abundance of all kinds of natural resources are now and have always been a source of Russia’s power and prestige. History reveals that the sizeable landscape not only provides resources, but is also a great source of Russia’s natural defense against aggressors. However, besides these natural blessings, Russia’s belligerent neighbors have always tried to contain Russia’s ascent towards progress and prosperity.
In the current times, Russia’s neighbors are striving hard to contain Moscow’s trade and the connectivity with the Global South. If we look at the map, then we will come to know that NATO is encroaching on Russia’s borders constantly. Russia’s Saint Petersburg is merely kilometres away from NATO. The Baltic Sea is crawling with NATO’s naval and aerial presence. NATO’s surveillance systems are keeping a very close monitoring of Russia’s naval and civilian vessels in the Baltic Sea, and its AWACS aircraft are jamming Russia’s civil communications. Furthermore, the North Sea is again a hotspot of NATO forces eager to hinder Russia’s seaborne trade. NATO forces are constantly creating problems for Russian vessels and are violating the established international norms and values. Similarly, NATO forces are creating problems for the Russian seaborne trade in the Baltic Sea. It is to be remembered here that NATO forces have formidable presence in the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and the Arabian Sea. The NATO presence in the Baltic, North, Celtic, Mediterranean, Red and the Arabian Seas is of great strategic importance. These bodies of water have very significant international trade routes.
In such a state, Russia is fully aware to secure its national interest and to circumvent the challenges posed by NATO. The INSTC is a doable alternate to avoid confrontation and the belligerence of the West. The INSTC starts from Moscow, reaches Volgograd and from there its uses two routes. One route via the Caspian Sea and the second via the ground-based route from Astrakhan to Baku in Azerbaijan. From there, it intends to enter Iran and from there it aims to connect Bandar Abbas and Chabahar Port. Then the route is aimed to connect these two seaports to the Indian seaport of Mumbai. The route was aimed to move goods back and forth from Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Europe and South Asia using ship, railroad and ground-based roads. The INSTC cuts down the distance to the global South by half and the shipping days will be reduced to 15 days from the previous 45 days. In such a way, Russian coal could reach India and, in the process, Iran could earn billions of dollars in transit and shipping fees. Further, Russian coal and other hydrocarbons could also be transported to China using the same shipping lines. If Pakistan could reach an agreement with Iran, Russian products could reach China using the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Nonetheless, with or without CPEC, the Iranian railway and shipping industries could benefit momentously from the INSTC. In other words, the INSTC is a golden option for the global South to enhance regional and even extra-regional connectivity. The energy-thirsty Global South needs the Russian natural resources, and the INSTC is the perfect opportunity to feed the Global South. Russia is creating alternate strategic options for all the nations in the world and with its global partners, such a dream could turn into reality. The INSTC is a grand strategic move that retains the potential of changing the lives of the Global South. Now, let’s look at the “competition”.
The “Western-Backed” IMEC Project
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a major new trade and infrastructure initiative with the potential to reshape regional connectivity. Signed on September 9th, 2023, the IMEC aims to bolster economic development by fostering connectivity and integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf, and Europe. The 4,800 km corridor proposes a route from India to Europe, passing through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Italy, and Greece. Its goal is to establish a modern, integrated infrastructure that links South Asia to Europe without relying on Chinese capital or territory. Goods from India could travel westward via ports and rail networks across the Gulf and Israel, reaching European markets. Along this route, the corridor would connect digital cables, energy pipelines, and logistics hubs.
IMEC is positioned as a potential alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), enabling the U.S. and its allies to enhance influence through trade and investment rather than military presence.
Officially announced at the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in New Delhi in September 2023, the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is an ambitious project aiming to provide far-reaching connectivity and deeper economic cooperation from India across Eurasia. Built upon overland rail and shipping hubs, the completed corridor would support regional prosperity, political cooperation, supply-chain and energy security, and digital interconnectivity among the corridor countries. The benefits are clear. IMEC’s overland transportation route could logistics costs by 30 percent and transportation time by 40 percent relative to shipping via the Suez Canal welcomed the IMEC proposal as a potential counterweight to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. As the main market at the end of the proposed route, Europe has a critical role to play in ensuring IMEC’s success. The initial IMEC signatories include the leaders of India, the United States, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Italy, France, Germany, and the European Commission. Although not yet signatories, Greece, Israel, and Jordan are implicitly included in the initiative, given the proposed route that goes through the Port of Haifa as the gateway to the Mediterranean. Momentum for the project was strong when it was first announced. However, recent instability in the Middle East has led to substantial uncertainty. Just weeks after the IMEC memorandum of understanding was signed at the G20 Summit, Hamas’s October 7 attack against Israel—and the continuing Israel-Hamas conflict—effectively put the brakes on another important initiative: a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. Normalization was widely as a critical enabler for progress on IMEC given the centrality of the Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Israel railway link in the project. While normalization would certainly ease political and logistical hurdles, it’s not an absolute requirement, and the project could still move forward with careful diplomatic management. As a result of improving bilateral ties, UAE-India trade reached $65 billion in 2024, representing 20.5 percent growth from 2023. India is now the UAE’s second-largest customer, comprising 9 percent of its total foreign trade and 14 percent of its non-oil exports. And earlier this month, Israel and Cyprus new energy development projects under the framework of IMEC, calling to prelaunch the Israel-Cyprus-Greece trilateral forum.
Israel’s Dream of a Transit Corridor in the Mediterranean is shattered
Iranian rocket and drone attacks on Haifa have dealt an unprecedented blow to the vital infrastructure of the Israeli regime, effectively excluding this strategic port from international trade. The ambitious project of the Arab-Mediterranean Corridor (IMEC), which aimed to transform the port of Haifa into a transit hub between Asia, Europe, and Africa, has completely failed due to the attacks on Haifa’s infrastructure by Iran. The US-backed project, involving countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India, has now become an unattainable dream on Netanyahu’s desk. An Indian company, the Adani Group, is the majority owner of the Haifa port. In February, where Trump called for turning Gaza into a “Riviera for the Middle East,” the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the country’s position that it will not seek a full-normalization agreement or engage on Gaza until there is “a credible, irreversible pathway to a Palestinian state,” and the establishment of a more enduring cease-fire agreement. The Saudi foreign ministry’s statement did not mention IMEC by name, but it appears to be affected by this pause. This one move by Saudi Arabia effectively killed this project. Iran’s attack on Haifa severely damaged it, but Israel has censored this. Once again, the moves by the 2 families have failed.
Delusions of Empire
Compared to these game-changing Eurasian corridors, the US-backed India–Middle East–Europe Corridor (launched in 2023) is a geopolitical farce. Whereas China backs its vision with robust national banking and real infrastructure, the IMEC consortium – led by India, Israel, the Gulf States and the EU – has built nothing tangible in two years. Bereft of credit mechanisms, energy planning, or large-scale logistics, it exists primarily as a marketing stunt, dressed up as a “game-changing connectivity corridor”.
This failed project joins a long line of western-led Belt and Road clones, from the “to “the $600 billion “and the €300 billion ($327 billion ideas and projects.” All collapsed for the same reason: the West’s structural inability to build. After decades of deindustrialization, dependence on cheap labor, and casino capitalism, the trans-Atlantic economies can no longer produce, construct, or strategize without relying on the destruction of weaker nations to maintain unipolar dominance. And, when their plans fail, then desperation sets in, they panic and react violently, resulting in even more humiliation. This mind-set may push them into a corner, and since NATO is becoming de-militarized and broke, they may just activate the nuclear option. With the motto: “I rather blow up the world than lose the family empire”. We are fast reaching that point. The closer we get to that point, the more wars, chaos, revolutions, etc. will become common.
In a huge development which is no doubt related to recent nuclear saber-rattling in the context of the Ukraine war, the US has likely delivered nuclear weapons in Britain for the first time in more than 15 years, according to The Telegraph and other British media reports. “An American C-17 transport plane visited RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk on Thursday 17th July, making a transatlantic journey from Kirtland Air Force base in New Mexico, where the US Air Force (USAF) stores nuclear bombs.” It could have been an intentional leak in order to signal Russia. The US military transport plane which flew to Lakenheath had flown from the US with its transponders on, allowing it to be tracked by foreign governments.
One analyst said, “Flying trans pondered C-17s from hot storage in Kirtland to Lakenheath and then returning and not going to a storage facility tells me this is a one-way drop-off flight – – sometimes these particular C-17 flights are flown without transponders. So, the fact that they trans pondered, this suggests to me that this has got to be deliberate.”
Again, this seems some deliberative ‘messaging’ to Moscow, coming as President Trump is seeking to pressure the Russian and Ukrainian sides to make progress at the negotiating table. Washington knows it has little leverage, given Kiev forces have remained on a back foot, and Russia is making slow but steady progress in the east. This is the mental state of the rulers of America, David Rockefeller Jnr and his allied networks of power. Their servant, Trump, is just another low-level manager for a specified term. In short, a “gardener “looking after his masters estate for a given time period. David Jnr sent this flight, in order to send a message to Russia.
Distraction-No One is watching the Financial Markets
While we are all having our attention directed towards the war with Iran, we should always be looking at the “why.” Keeping in mind the absolutely true adage that all wars are bankers’ wars. So while we’re being directed towards the Middle East, I note the easing of the capital rule on banks. This — together with the war — are absolutely totally part of the same equation, despite the fact that not one in a million people will ever know it or realize it, and for that very reason it will progress. Here is the problem…The US government has quietly initiated a stealth liquidity backdoor for banks by easing capital requirements on Treasury trades. This is not a mere policy shift. It’s a quiet declaration of structural stress. What this means is that the Treasury market, the backbone of the current financial system, is now so fragile and overburdened with issuance that it can no longer function without regulatory distortion. The US government is now issuing a whopping $1–2 trillion in new debt every quarter. Foreign buyers like China and Japan are net sellers. Domestic demand for treasuries is not keeping up. Yields are becoming increasingly unhinged from real risk. So where does the Iran distraction come in? Exactly here: War is a cover for liquidity expansion. War equals narrative control. War is a moral justification for massive capital deployment. And war means optical deferral of systemic accountability (they screwed up big, but can’t admit to it, because by doing so America and the EU would get a revolution). Far better to send the peasants into a meat grinder (worked in Ukraine).
The Iran “surprise” hype machine serves a dual purpose: Emotionally spike public attention away from the fact that the US is suffering from domestic insolvency. Creates a narrative for justifying increased military spending and debt expansion, all under the guise of national security. The Rockefeller Empire and its deep state truly are in control. They’re not trying to hide the debt anymore. They’re trying to normalize the next phase of collapse by staging urgency elsewhere. The United States is entering a phase where the legitimacy of the dollar system depends entirely on manufacturing belief. And when belief wanes, control mechanisms shift from fiscal logic to warfare. This is why capital rules are being gutted in silence, all the while state media channels scream about “world-changing surprises” (Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill) and existential threats (Russia bad, Iran bad). It is simply another step in the process of a failing empire. As the fog of war thickens and financial smoke screens grow more elaborate, understanding the real drivers behind the chaos is no longer optional — it’s essential. Beneath the surface of the headlines lies a deliberate engineering of collapse, disguised as policy, wrapped in distraction.
7 If Iran falls, the Rest of Civilization will fall too
The ‘long war’ to subvert Iran, weakens Russia; BRICS and China is on hold. It is not over. Iran cannot afford to relax or to neglect its defenses. What is at stake is the U.S. attempt to control the Middle East and its oil as a buttress to its dollar trading primacy. Trump had expected that countries would respond to his tariff chaos by reaching an agreement not to trade with China – and indeed to accept trade and financial sanctions against China, Russia and Iran. Clearly, both Russia and China understand the geo-financial stakes surrounding a ‘no surrender’ Iran. And they understand too, how regime change would make Russia’s southern underbelly vulnerable; how it could collapse the BRICS trade corridors, and be used as a wedge separating Russia from China. Put plainly: the U.S. long war likely will be resumed in a new format. Iran notably has survived this acute phase of the confrontation. Israel and the U.S. bet all on an uprising of the Iranian people. It didn’t happen: Iranian society united in the face of aggression. And the mood is more robust.
What the West is testing in Iran is a method. What it seeks is a map. The West knows it cannot win in a fair fight. That’s why it does not fight in a sneaky and dirty manner. It infiltrates from within, strikes from the shadows, and uses proxies to exhaust nations until their sovereignty collapses from sheer fatigue. This is nothing new. The West is an empire that exerts dominance through infiltration—not invasion. Assassination instead of dialogue. Collapse brought about by internal erosion of the victim. And yet, the Global South continues to repeat the same mistake: it believes what is happening is a controllable crisis, not a system that must be dismantled. This is not a conflict. This is a predator and prey. And if China, Russia, and the rising world do not fully understand this equation, they will be next on the butcher’s table—not because they are weak, but because they are rising. Rising is their crime. Iran’s pain is merely the opening chapter. The rest of the chapters have already been written. Ukraine is a rehearsal to test Russia. Taiwan is a slow-burning fuse to ignite China. Africa is being ignited—base after base, coup after coup, and false flag after false flag. Central Asia is now about to become a theater of war between NATO, its proxies and the SCO. The West is waging an ongoing total war—even when it calls it “peace.” And we respond with hesitation—even as we call our response “resistance.” Decolonization is impossible without power. The world will not be rebalanced through conferences, statements, or press releases. It will be rebalanced when the Western Empire no longer feels safe within itself—when its borders feel what ours feel, when its cities are no longer insulated from grave consequences. This does not mean becoming aggressors. It means shattering the illusion that peace can be begged from those who live off war.
Taiwan must be reclaimed. Kyiv and Odessa must be protected. Palestine must be liberated. Not for conquest—but for balance. To accomplish the task. For the sake of truth. BRICS must stop being a polite forum for declarations and become what it was always meant to be: a corrective axis, a protective shield for the South, a hammer of the future, the backbone of global resistance. If the West is waging hybrid war, it must be met with a hybrid uprising—political, economic, cultural, and military. Not on one front—but on all fronts. If Iran falls, we are at the doorstep of war. But if Iran holds out, the spell will backfire on the sorcerer. That is precisely why the West is terrified. This is why they lie, sabotage, and escalate—because, for the first time in generations, they feel the world slipping from their grasp.
Let it slip. And if a world war is what it takes to shatter the spine of the white supremacist empire—so be it. Because the West is an empire built on stolen breaths, broken treaties, and mass graves. It does not deserve the luxury of dying peacefully in its sleep. This time, the battlefield will not be confined to the Global South.
Latest Updates on Israel’s losses
It’s been six weeks since the war ended, and more facts are emerging about losses sustained by Israel. Here are some of them:-
*Around 6-8 Israeli jets were shot down. Of these 4 were the famed F-35s.
*Several Israeli pilots were killed, and one Israeli female pilot was captured
* Around 40 or so senior Israeli intelligence officials were killed while in a bunker that was hit by Iranian missiles
* The port of Eilat is bankrupt, owing millions of dollars
We will combine both these trends – the financial collapse and the two families’ urgency to blow up the world in our next title – called “Wall Street vs. BRICS”.
