1 Turkey
2 Russia
3 Iran
4 Hezbollah
5 The US role
6 Israel
7 What happens next (where are these in part 2)
8 Partition (where are these in part 2)
Syria is an absolutely key connectivity crossroads – harking back to the Ancient Silk Roads. The 2 families achieved their perennial dream of regime change in Damascus and blocked the crucial transit point for Iran to the Eastern Mediterranean. Syria’s fall will significantly weaken the Axis of Resistance, severing vital supply lines to Hezbollah and undermining regional coordination. Israel’s decision to occupy Syria’s Golan and establish a “buffer zone” adds another layer of complexity. The “new Syria” faces a critical choice: resist foreign encroachments or risk fragmentation. They would also enable/force Qatar to finally build a pipeline to provide natural gas to Europe through Syria, one of Brzezinski’s gambits to replace Russian natural gas. There’s no evidence that key Persian Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and UAE will gleefully accept Qatar’s geo-economics stardom if the pipeline is built. For starters, it needs to run through Saudi territory, and Riyadh may no longer be open to that.
As armed factions consolidate control over Damascus, Syrian interim Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali has called for unity, urging the preservation of state institutions. However, the capital remains mired in chaos. Reports of looting, sectarian reprisals, and forced migrations have intensified fears of prolonged instability. Syria’s future relies on its ability to reconstruct itself as a unified and sovereign state. For the Axis of Resistance, a stable Syria is indispensable. However, external powers – chiefly Turkey, the US and Israel – favor a fragmented and weakened Syria to thwart regional opposition to their ambitions. The answers to these pressing questions will ultimately depend on the Syrian people.
Only they can determine the fate of their homeland – a nation long celebrated as a cradle of civilization, now facing an uncertain dawn. We will do a brief analysis of the situation in Syria in respect of each of the players involved, starting with Turkey.
1 Turkey
Turkey, under Erdogan is claiming land that the Rothschild’s took away from the Ottoman Empire in 1920. This land encompasses present day Syria, Lebanon, Occupied Palestine, Present-day Saudi Arabia and Jordan and Iraq, especially the northern part of Iraq, which was known as the Mosul Villayet. The agreement signed with the European powers – the Lausanne Deal – expired this year. This frees up many restrictions that were placed on Turkey. To understand this background explains Turkey’s current moves in taking over Syria. Look at the map below. This shows the area under Ottoman control. This was the position in 1917.
It wants to return to Syria the millions of refugees it currently hosts and to eliminate any base for Kurdish factions in Syria to ally with, and assist, its own Kurdish resistance groups.
The Kurdish Threat
The Rothschilds intentionally created various regions on the border regions of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran have a sizeable Kurd populations located on the northern borders. The Rothschild game-plan for this was to use the Kurds as a destabilizing force in these countries. It acts as a means of diverting attention from their borders/conflict with Israel. Rothschild’s-acting through London and France were hoping to create an independent Kurdish state – a sort of mini-Israel in the region. This would help to cripple and fracture these 5 countries, those posing little resistance to the Rothschild’s “Greater Israel” project. Not only does Turkey wants to eliminate this Kurdish entity in northeast Syria, but is also planning to take Mosul, in northern Iraq. Turkey is busy preparing an 11,000 man army of terrorists to attack and take over Mosul. This is from Sergey Narishkin- Russia Foreign Intelligence chief.
Ankara has consistently pursued its strategic goals in Syria, particularly in curbing Kurdish territorial ambitions. Erdogan repeatedly vowed to launch military operations in northern Syria, aiming to eliminate fighters linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The fall of Assad offered Turkey an unprecedented opportunity to assert its dominance and block the formation of an independent Kurdish entity, and Ankara’s early support of Jolani provided it with leverage over its rivals. Fighting between Turkish-backed forces, including the Syrian National Army (SNA), and US-supported Kurdish militants in the northeast as HTS-led forces gained momentum. Recently, clashes intensified around Kobani, where Turkish troops and their allied militias reportedly massed, and raising fears of a new cross-border offensive.
Erdogan on 25th December that Kurdish militias in Syria have a choice to either surrender all their weapons or “be buried” by Ankara. “Kurdish militants in Syria must either lay down their weapons or be buried in Syrian territory with their weapons, and will confront all terrorist organizations that are trying to exploit the circumstances in Syria,” he added. The comments come as violent clashes continue between the US-backed Kurdish militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Ankara’s proxy, the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of armed factions consisting of several violent extremist groups containing many ISIS elements. These groups are receiving air cover from Ankara’s air force.
The Turkish Defense Ministry that military operations on Wednesday killed 21 Kurdish militants – 20 in Syria and one in Iraq. “Our operations will continue effectively and resolutely,” the Defense Ministry said. SDF is predominantly made up of People’s Protection Units (YPG) forces. The YPG is the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Ankara’s sworn Kurdish foe that has waged an insurgency against Turkey since the 1980s and is outlawed in the country. The US-backed Kurdish militia in Syria helps Washington oversees its occupation of the country’s oilfields. Ankara wants to put an end to all foreign and US support to Kurdish militants. SNA factions announced an operation against the SDF in Kobani on 17 December. The announcement was made in the midst of a buildup of Turkish troops on the Syrian border, signaling a preparation for a potential invasion. The SNA was a main force in the (HTS-led assault, which began in late November and ended with the total collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government on 8 December, when extremists stormed the capital, Damascus.
Violent clashes continued to between the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed factions from the Syrian National Army (SNA) in the east of Aleppo on 31 December. Intense airstrikes by Turkish drones supporting the SNA advance have also been reported on different areas in the countryside of Aleppo and Raqqa. At least 179 people, including 25 civilians, have been killed since the clashes started on 8 December. The SNA is a militia comprised of former fighters from the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Al-Qaeda, and ISIS. Ankara has used the SNA for years as a tool to prevent the US-backed SDF from establishing a contiguous Kurdish autonomous zone from Afrin in Syria’s northwest to Hasakah in the northeast. The SDF was formed in 2015 with US assistance in a race to occupy Syria’s energy-rich regions after Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia helped the Syrian army defeat ISIS. The SDF has close ties with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), which is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the EU.
Since the start of the year, ISIS fighters have killed around 753 people during 491 recorded operations in Syria. “ISIS continues executing almost-daily military operations and counter-attacks in areas controlled by Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian Desert, while ISIS cells are still able to exploit opportunities to create a security vacuum and carry out assassinations, which clearly indicates that the ‘Islamic State’ is still the SOHR report states. These operations included ambushes, armed attacks, and bombings. They were concentrated in the Aleppo-Hama-Raqqa triangle, the eastern desert of Homs, and the deserts of Deir Ezzor and Raqqah governorates, where a total of 646 people were killed. The report highlights that at least 78 of those were civilians – including women and children – while 568 were members of the disbanded Syrian Arab Army (SAA). Furthermore, another 107 people were killed in areas controlled by the US-backed SDF in Deir Ezzor, Hasakah, Aleppo, and Raqqah. The Syrian Desert region is geographically linked to what is referred to as the ’55-kilometer-zone’ surrounding the massive Al-Tanf US occupation base in eastern Syria. According to numerous reports in recent years, ISIS and other extremist groups have received training at the Al-Tanf base and were given logistical support to carry out attacks against Syrian military forces in the desert region.Although the bulk of those killed by ISIS this year were SAA members, the extremist armed group often targets other pro-government troops in the Syrian Desert, killing hundreds over the past several years. In contrast, since the start of the year, ISIS has lost about 117 fighters and commanders in security operations by the different actors present in Syria. At least 58 of those were killed by Russian airstrikes and SAA operations, while 42 were killed by the SDF. As ISIS continues to revitalize its forces, concerns are increasing about the fate of 10,000 ISIS fighters imprisoned by the SDF in northeast Syria. Kurdish officials stated earlier this month that an ongoing clash by former ISIS and Al-Qaeda factions – supported by Turkey and allied with the “transitional government” in Damascus – poses a direct “threat” to the security of these prisons. “This is the closest thing we have to a ticking time bomb. If Turkey doesn’t get these attacks on the SDF halted, we could have a massive jailbreak on our hands “.. This is the threat issued by the US proxy, as a warning to Turkey. The trinity and the US will not allow the Kurds to be vanquished, even if it means going against Turkey-a very willing puppet . In response to the growing threat, Iraq has significantly boosted security in its northwestern region, deploying hundreds of anti-terror troops and building trenches along the Syrian border.
Erdogan’s confidence stems from Turkey’s strengthened position as rival powers like Iran and Russia diminish in influence. Meanwhile, Ankara’s growing sway complicates the SDF’s ability to garner regional support, leaving the group at its weakest point. The SDF’s recent decision to adopt the three-starred Syrian independence flag suggests an attempt to integrate into Syria’s post-Assad political framework, but its future remains precarious, with fears of renewed attacks by ISIS and other adversaries.
The US entered the region after 1920. By 1960, it also became a patron of the Kurds. Over the past 3 decades, the US has become the Kurds main backer. Since the fall of Damascus, there have been ongoing clashes between the Kurds and Turkey and its proxies. This has the potential of a direct conflict between the US and Turkey.
Economic & Energy Conflict between Israel & Turkey
Greater Israel is worried about the statements coming out from Erdogan and his people. The Turkish political class says that after Damascus “comes Jerusalem”. Who knows whether it’s just talk, or something serious? Do note that Turkey still exports a variety of goods to Israel, and it hides this trade by routing it through 3rd parties such as Greece and Egypt.
On top of that, Erdogan announced a massive transportation project for Syria, chief of which was re-building the Hijaz Railway, which was one of the principal railroads of the Ottoman Turkish Empire.
Its main line was constructed in 1900–08, ostensibly to pilgrimages to the Muslims’ holy places in Arabia but in fact also to strengthen Ottoman control over the most distant provinces of the empire. The mainline, built by a multiracial mainly under the supervision of a German engineer the 1,320 km of difficult country and was completed in eight years. It ran from Damascus southward to Deraa and thence over Jordan into northwestern Arabia, and inland to Medina. The major branch line, 160 km long, from Deraa to the Mediterranean coast of Palestine, was completed in 1905.
When the Arabs revolted against Turkish rule in 1916, the track between Jordan and Medina was put out of operation by Arab raids, largely a Rothschild/British plan to cut-off the Arabs, and to make sure that the Ottoman military will not be in a position to reinforce their outposts in the region. British Intelligence agent, Lawrence, was the man on the ground.
After the war the operative sections of the track were taken over by the Syrian, Palestinian, and Jordanian governments. In the late 20th century the northern portion of the Hejaz Railway (also called the Hejaz-Jordan Railway) between Jordan, and Damascus was in use and carried mostly freight.
If and when Turkey completes this rail line, it will unify the region under Turkey, but from Israel’s viewpoint, that’s just the problem. In addition, the rail line will make Turkey even stronger militarily. The Rothschild trinity (London, Paris and Israel) will do everything to stop this project.
The second major issue is Turkey’s quest to achieve energy independence. It has recently discovered a large gas field in the Black Sea. By taking over Syria, it will then own its oil and gas production, as well as taking possession of the new oil and gas field discovered in Syria in 2010, not to mention the huge oil find discovered in 2010 by the 2 families.
Then there are the gas fields of the eastern Med. The problematic field for Israel is the Karish gas field that lies on the borders between Lebanon and Israel. Lebanon is also on the Turkish list to be “taken over”. Turkey, Libya, Syria and Egypt have an agreement regarding the eastern Med; while Israel, Cyprus (also on the Turkish list) and the US are working together to develop various gas fields and its infrastructure. These are the two conflicting economic groups from which we can expect more problems in the future.
2 Russia
Did Russia have foreknowledge of what was afoot in Idlib, and the orchestration of a transition of power? Of course! The very effective Russian services must have known, as this Syria project has been ongoing since the mid-1970s. Quiescent ethnic and sectarian tensions likely will re-kindle; wildfires will catch. The lid is off. And Russia was never going to take the bait of plunging in. The US Deep State’s tactics are not exactly a novelty; trying to divert Russia by focusing on Syria; stretching Moscow out; and relieving pressure on Ukraine, right before the signing of the very serious Russia-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership. Syria is absolutely crucial for Russia’s overall West Asia-African strategy. Damascus is a key Russian connection to Africa – where Moscow is de facto deploying its full global power, with some intriguing add-ons in the form of de facto counter-sanctions against Western oligarchs, whose positions across Africa are being serially undermined.
And Russia: has Russia been “defeated” by the US or Israel? Well, thus far the ‘rebels’ have already stated a desire to have diplomatic relations with Russia and have given permission for Russia to retain its naval bases.
“Leaders of the armed Syrian opposition have guaranteed the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions on Syrian territory” — a source in the Kremlin told TASS. So what did Russia lose? For now, Russia lost the money-sink of pouring billions of dollars into protecting Assad’s government, potentially freeing up vast amounts of both troops and funding to serve the SMO. Does that sound like a loss?
However, the assault was not limited to Syria or Iran; it also targeted Russia’s interests in the Middle East. The undermining of the Syrian regime was thus aimed at weakening Russia’s regional influence, stripping it of a key ally, and potentially ousting its military presence from Syria. While this could be seen as a blow to Moscow, it would be inaccurate to suggest that this significantly alters Russia’s broader Middle Eastern strategy or its relations with regional partners. It’s extremely naïve to assume that Moscow was caught by surprise. As if all Russian Intel assets – bases, satellites, ground Intel – would not have scrutinized a bunch of Jihadis for months assembling an army of tens of thousands in Greater Idlib, complete with a tank division.
So it’s quite plausible that what’s being played is classic Russia, combined with Persian guile. It didn’t take long for Tehran and Moscow to do the math on what they would lose – especially in terms of human resources – by falling into the trap of supporting an already enfeebled Assad in yet another bloody, protracted ground war. Still, Tehran offered military support, and Moscow, air support, and negotiations scenarios till the very end.
Stripped of its Syrian ally, Russia is now more exposed on the chessboard. Unless it can win over the new government in Damascus, it risks losing its strategically important Mediterranean naval port at Tartus, on the Syrian coast and a nearby airbase. Washington will be aggressively arm-twisting whoever leads Syria to force Russia out. It was the threatened loss of its other warm-water naval port, on the Black Sea, at Sebastopol in Crimea – after Washington’s meddling to help overthrow Ukraine’s Moscow-friendly government in 2014 – that led to Russia annexing the peninsula. NATO is working behind the scenes to move its pieces. And so is Russia to avoid a checkmate.
3 Iran
Iran still maintains its influence over the region via Iraq and its growing normalization with other Arab countries. Has Israel severed Iran’s ability to supply Hezbollah, causing Hezbollah to eventually wither at the root? That could be—time will tell. But Israel may have just invoked a far worse enemy on its border. Even so, clipping Hezbollah’s wings does nothing really to Iran itself, it just takes away one Damocles sword Iran had over Israel. But does that somehow give Israel its own Damocles sword over Iran? No. Plus, Iran could find new ways to supply Hezbollah, particularly with the mélange of new alliances which are soon to form from this heady brew. After all, despite various blockades Iran has found ways to supply Yemen.
However, Assad’s resignation fundamentally changes the balance of power. Firstly, the new political parties in Syria are likely to distance themselves from Iran in order to improve relations with the West, other Arab nations, and Turkey. Secondly, Assad’s departure undermines Iran’s image as a guarantor of stability for its allies. Additionally, the weakening of Iran’s influence in Syria complicates its position in the entire region. Hezbollah, which has relied heavily on Syrian support, is now a lot more vulnerable. And, confident that Tehran no longer has considerable control over the region, Israel may increase pressure on Iranian infrastructure in Syria.
Iran’s Supreme Leader on 11 December: “There should be no doubt that what happened in Syria was plotted in the command rooms of the United States and Israel. We have evidence for this. One of the neighboring countries of Syria also played a role, but the primary planners are the U.S. and the Zionist regime”. Addressing the events unfolding in Syria in the past few days, Khamenei said “It is certain that these perpetrators, with their own objectives that may vary from one another, seek to occupy land in northern or southern Syria.” He pointed out that “the Americans are a party in this war that has devastated Syria, during which the Israeli entity occupied lands extending to the outskirts of Damascus,” adding that they “participated in the Israeli aggression on Syria by launching airstrikes, that potentially destroyed infrastructure.” Khamenei further explained that “the US is trying to establish a foothold in the region. Nonetheless, he reasserted that “with time, it will become clear that they will not achieve any of these goals.” He emphasized that “Resistance means confronting the United States in the region, where the people refuse to be enslaved by the Americans.” In this context, Ayatollah Khamenei quashed speculations about any weakening of the will to resist.
This moment marks the beginning of a new chapter in Iran’s long-standing foreign policy history, which has always been closely tied to regional events. Having played a prominent role in the Syrian conflict, Iran now finds itself at a crossroads: it must either reconsider its influence in Syria or risk losing this strategic ally. However, this new chapter will also bring challenges. Iran will face competition from other international players like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Western countries, which are all competing for influence in Syria. This means that Tehran must reevaluate its long-term strategy and seek innovative ways to engage with various Syrian political parties. The situation in the region has become not only a foreign policy disaster for Iran but also an internal challenge, further exacerbating divisions within Iranian society. Tensions are rising between reformist forces advocating for dialogue with the West and conservatives who insist that maintaining a hardline approach is the only way to retain influence and control. This divide is further intensified by the anticipated power transition from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to his son Mojtaba Khamenei, which, according to many analysts, could occur as early as 2025. This transition is likely to trigger a new wave of domestic political conflicts. Increasingly, there are fears that the Iran could face internal fractures, potentially escalating into open conflict between various political and ethnic factions. Adding to Iran’s woes is the looming threat of direct military confrontation with Israel, which continues to consolidate its position in the region. The Syrian crisis is not just a localized conflict; it represents yet another element of both regional and global confrontation.
But another key factor has been the smart diplomacy pursued by Iran. Yet, Iran has pursued an astute path. It quietly has pursued a strategy of diplomacy and joint Gulf security and trade with Gulf States. It has joined both BRICS and the SCO and has acquired a new economic and political ‘spatial depth’.
Whether the U.S. and Europe likes it or not, Iran is a major regional political player, and it sits atop, with others, the coalition of Resistance Movements and Fronts that have been woven together through shrewd diplomacy to work in close conjunction with each other. This development has become a key strategic ‘project’: Sunni (Hamas) and Shi’i (Hezbollah) are joined with other ‘fronts’ in an anti-colonial struggle for liberation under the non-sectarian symbol of Al-Aqsa (which is neither Sunni, nor Shi’a, nor Muslim Brotherhood, nor Salafist or Wahhabi). It represents, rather, the storied tale of Islamic civilization. Yes, it is, in its way, eschatological too. This latter achievement has done much to limit the threat of all-out war from engulfing the region. The Iranian and Resistance Axis’ interest is twofold: First, to retain power to carefully calibrate the intensity of conflict – upping and lowering as appropriate; and secondly, to keep escalatory dominance as much as possible in their hands.
The second aspect encompasses strategic patience. The Resistance Movements well understand the Israeli psyche – therefore, NO reflexes to Israeli provocations are accepted. But rather, to wait and rely on Israel to provide the pretext to any further step up the escalatory ladder. Israel must be seen to be aggressor – and the resistance merely the responder.
Thirdly, Iran draws confidence to pursue its ‘forwardness’ by having innovated a tectonic shift in asymmetric warfare, and in deterrence against Israel and the West. The U.S. might huff and puff, but Iran felt assured throughout this period that the U.S. well knows the risks associated with trying ‘blow the house down’. This blind spot is the Resistance’s silent ‘ally’. It prevents the West (mostly) from understanding this pivot in military thinking.
Iran and its allies take a different view: They regard a state’s power to rest on intangibles, rather than literal tangibles: strategic patience; ideology; discipline; innovation and the concept of military leadership. The West has (or had) airpower and unchallenged air superiority, but the Resistance Fronts have their two-stage solution. They manufacture their own AI-assisted swarm drones and smart earth-hugging missiles. This is their Air Force.
The second stage naturally would be to evolve a layered air defense system (Russian-style). Does the Resistance possess such? But, they stay mum.
The Resistance’s underlying strategy is clear: the West is over-invested in its air dominance and in its overwhelming fire-power. It prioritizes quick shock and awe thrusts, but usually quickly exhausts itself early in the encounter. They rarely can sustain such high-intensity assault for long.
The second therefore, is that whereas the West has short endurance, the opposition is trained and prepared for long attritional conflict – missile and rocket barrage to the point that civil society can sustain the impact no longer. War’s aim not necessarily has killing the enemy soldiers as a prime objective; rather it is exhaustion and inculcating a sense of defeat.
Finally, Iran is signing a strategic military agreement with Russia sometime this month. The new equipment supplied to Iran from Russia in October will greatly increase the capacity of its air defense systems, including other equipment.Tehran and Moscow harbor no illusions – and are preparing accordingly. The war on BRICS is just getting started. China also will not let Iran down. It has huge vested economic deals with Iran- being that it is China’s largest oil supplier.
Contrary to the reports that the fall of the Assad government is a negaitive for Iran, in actual reality, Iran has been freed from a big responsibility. These include free oil supplies, propping up the Assad government with material aid and subsidies, plus the allocation of military manpower, etc.
4 Hezbollah
The fall of the Assad government has also freed Hezbollah of trying to prop up the government through the use of Hezbollah manpower. Hezbollah has enough firepower to last for 2 to 4 years at its present rate of consumption. Most of the missiles, rockets an drones are now being produced within Lebanon. Whatever is short is still supplied by iran, through various means and routes.
Recent reports have emerged that a dialogue is opened between Hezbollah and HTS. Let us see what comes out of this.
The question of Hezbollah’s future is now the subject of great debate, with some even questioning whether it will collapse. The truth with Hezbollah is that it emerged and managed to expel the Israeli occupation forces without the more sophisticated weapons that it later acquired through Syria and currently has its own underground weapons manufacturing capacity. As long as there is a will to combat the Israelis and their expansionist endeavours, Hezbollah will remain. It is now also possible that the Zionist Entity will choose to use what it sees as a historic opportunity to use its occupation of Syrian lands in order to invade Lebanese territory from the Bekaa Valley area, which could open up new pathways for resistance on both sides of the Lebanon-Syria border.
Hezbollah can successfully combat an Israeli assault that seeks to annihilate it, which could be its next test. Despite it now having to use its sophisticated weapons more sparingly, it now has time to fix a number of more existential problems that it was forced to begin facing following the Israeli pager attacks and assassinations of its senior leadership.
In Gaza, the Resistance groups have managed to survive and continue recruiting new fighters over the span of more than 14 months. The Palestinian Resistance was never even close to the strength of Hezbollah, yet has still not been defeated amidst famine, the destruction of most of the Gaza Strip’s infrastructure, and a full-scale genocidal assault, the likes of which is unique in human history. Therefore, the assumption that Hezbollah is doomed without access to advanced missiles does not carry much weight.
5 The US
Washington leveraged the anti-ISIS campaign to pursue broader geostrategic goals, deploying roughly 2,000 troops into Syria – an occupation that violated international law and Syrian sovereignty. By 2016, US forces had established a presence at a strategically important base located at the tri-border area between Syria, Iraq, and Jordan. This position, south of the Euphrates River, overlooks a critical supply route from Tehran to Damascus and Beirut, which the US views as significant for regional control.
The US has sent its largest convoy of weapons and logistics supplies for its forces in Syria since the fall of the government of Assad earlier this month. Approximately 60 loaded trucks have entered the country from Iraq heading towards US bases in the Syrian provinces of Al-Hasakah and Deir ez-Zohr. More weapons and supplies are being delivered to the coalition forces amid the intensification of US military movements, including the deployment of armored vehicles and troops in and around the cities of Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and Kobani. A total of six convoys with cargo for the coalition, totaling around 210 trucks, have already crossed into Syria since HTS took over Damascus on December 8.
Earlier this month, the Pentagon announced that the number of US servicemen in the country stood at around 2,000, which was roughly 1,100 more than the figure it had previously provided. These figures may be an understatement. The reason for the boost in military force in northeastern Syria is that the US wants to protect its Kurdish assets in the region, as well as preparing for a possible invasion of northern Iraq. Mosul, Erbil etc. are in the Kurdish part of northern Iraq. Both the northern areas of Syria and Iraq are rich in oil reserves. The 2 families could be preparing a possible formation of an independent Kurdish state in the region, which will be made up by grabbing land from Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Good luck with that.
The Al-Tanf base was originally established in 1991 before the Second Gulf War, reactivated during the 2003 Iraq invasion, and then closed after US forces consolidated control in Iraq. It reopened in 2016 after ISIS was driven from the area.
Since then, Al-Tanf has served not only as a training ground for fighters of the CIA-backed proxy groups, but also as a cornerstone of broader US interests, as Colonel Daniel Magruder Jr. noted in a 2020 entitled Al Tanf garrison: America’s strategic baggage in the Middle East. According to Magruder, Al-Tanf was meant to facilitate the continued fight against ISIS, counter Iranian activities, and maintain leverage in negotiations over Syria’s future. However, the base’s role went far beyond these stated goals. US occupation forces at Al-Tanf engaged in both offensive and defensive intelligence operations while also supporting armed groups against the Syrian government.
The base acted as a hub for the Military Operations Center (MOC), a joint effort with several states aimed at coordinating military activities in southern Syria, ultimately undermining Syrian sovereignty and its allies.
The Real Strategic goal: A Buffer Zone for Israel
Beyond its military role, Al-Tanf’s strategic location supports plans for a controlled buffer zone involving the nearby Rukban refugee camp. This buffer would help US and Israeli objectives by creating a physical barrier between Syria and Iraq. The US presence in Syria has always aligned with safeguarding Israel, whether by severing geographical links between members of the Axis of Resistance or by deploying advanced radar and air defense systems to protect Tel Aviv’s interests. The base also facilitates Israeli operations in Syrian airspace, providing a logistical advantage for air force missions that circumvent Syrian air defenses. The collaboration between the US and the occupation state has been well documented, with Al-Tanf serving as a launching point for Israeli air strikes deep inside Syria – attacks that would be far riskier from other approaches due to Syrian anti-aircraft systems.
A 2021 report by the highlighted how the US occupying presence at Al-Tanf has directly benefited Israel, supporting it’s “– a strategic approach aimed at minimizing risk and exploiting weaknesses in Syrian defenses. Crucially, it also facilitates Israeli air force attacks on targets deep inside Syria – attacks that could not have been carried out from above Lebanon or the occupied Golan Heights due to the distance involved. Since 2018, Israeli forces have completely avoided entering Syrian airspace from the western side. Israeli fighter planes had previously used the corridor along the Jordanian–Syrian border and the airspace around Al-Tanf to penetrate Syrian airspace to launch strikes.
This base’s importance comes from its buffer zone and air umbrella, which have a radius of 55 kilometers. These were established due to the non-conflict understanding between Russia and the US regarding Syria. The base also played a role in confronting drone and missile attacks launched by Iran during whether by providing radar monitoring or attempting to shoot them down, similar to the role played by other US bases in Syria and the wider region.
The Future of the US Occupation of Syria
Assad’s brother, Maher has taken two heavily equipped brigades across the border into Iraq. This is a force that is being kept in reserve for use whenever needed in the future. That’s the Assad insurance policy.
With Trump poised to return to the White House next month, questions have resurfaced about the future of American military involvement in Syria. The expectation is that despite any renewed rhetoric about reducing military involvement, Al-Tanf will remain a key asset in maintaining US influence in Syria and the region. The base serves as a strategic card – enabling continued influence, fostering instability, and complicating the region’s dynamics. Yet, a critical question remains: How sustainable is the US presence at Al-Tanf, given the growing resistance? With the Iraqi resistance increasingly targeting US positions, Washington’s ability to maintain control over Al-Tanf may weaken.
In time, Syria might leverage its own “Popular Resistance” to apply pressure, forcing US forces to eventually leave Syrian territory. This may be a long time coming, because the Rockefeller Empire is laser-like focused on the region’s oil and gas resources. But the Rockefeller Empire, however, were never going to let Europe be energy independent. The U.S. needs the energy resources of the Middle East for itself – to collateralize its debt-overload. European states are left to tumble, as the fiscal crunch bites and European growth tails away.
In 2017, Moscow and Damascus signed a deal for a 49-year lease by the Russian military of the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim airbase in the east of the country. During his end-of-year press conference last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that “an overwhelming majority” within the group now controlling the situation in Syria “have expressed an interest in retaining our military bases.”
The Tartus and Khmeimim facilities are currently being used to deliver much-needed humanitarian aid to the country, he added. The issue of maintaining a Russian military presence in Syria requires “careful consideration,” Putin stressed. “We must reflect on how our relations will evolve with the political forces currently in control and those that will govern this country in the future.” The US and UK are planning terrorist attacks on Russian bases in Syria in order to prevent the situation in the country from stabilizing, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has said.
Since the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government earlier this month, Washington and London have set a goal of “maintaining chaos in the Middle East” in order to achieve a lasting dominance over the region, the agency said in a statement on Saturday. However, Russia’s military presence on the Mediterranean coast of Syria has been hampering their plans, the statement stressed.
“In order to remove this ‘obstacle,’ British intelligence services are developing plans to organize a series of terrorist attacks on Russian military facilities in Syria,” the SVR said.
The role of the perpetrators of those assaults will be assigned to the fighters of Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), who were released from prisons after the regime change in the country.
“According to available information, representatives of the British intelligence service MI6 and the America’s CIA recently tasked Syria-based IS commanders under their control with carrying out a series of attacks on Russian military bases. To do out this dirty work, the terrorists received attack UAVs,” the statement read. In order to cover up their involvement in the planned Islamic State attacks on Russian bases, the US and UK military commands have instructed their air forces to continue to carry out strikes on IS positions in Syria, the SVR claimed. The terrorists are being warned about those airstrikes in advance, it added. “London and Washington hope that such provocations will prompt Russia to evacuate its troops from Syria. At the same time, the new Syrian authorities will be accused of being unable to control the radicals,” the statement read.
6 Israel
Meanwhile, Israel will be overstretched in the Golan. The Americans will temporarily feel safe and secure around the oil fields from which they will keep stealing Syrian oil.
“Israel” capitalized on the fall of the Syrian regime on the 8th of this month, launching a wide-scale operation to destroy the qualitative capabilities of the Syrian Arab Army. The operation targeted missile weapons stores, manufacturing and development sites, air force facilities, air defense systems, radar installations, research centers, and naval combat assets. Israeli warplanes are still freely parading in Syrian airspace, with Syrian citizens always hearing the sounds of Israeli reconnaissance planes overhead.
In this scenario, the Syrian Arab Army would have lost the majority of its weaponry. If reconstituted, it would become a fragile and symbolic army force, incapable of effectively facing an overwhelming, American-backed Israeli military that occupies whatever land it wants, and bombs whatever it wants, whenever it wants. In full view of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) posts, Israeli forces violated the 1974 agreement and took control of more than 10 Syrian villages, covering an area of more than 20,000 km². Abu Muhammad, a resident of the Quneitra countryside, told what happened:
“The Israeli forces raised their flag on the Quneitra Governorate building, and destroyed numerous houses in the surrounding countryside, along with small farms in various towns. They bulldozed lands and farms and uprooted trees, and erected earthen barriers and fortifications around the Mantara Dam, Syria’s second-largest dam, cutting off our water supply. Additionally, they installed extensive surveillance cameras and communication devices. When civilians protested against their actions, the Israeli forces fired live ammunition directly at them, resulting in numerous injuries.
Syria thus has been disintegrated and pillaged in the name of ‘liberating’ Syrians from the “defender of Palestine “– the Assad government and state. In the same mode, the unspoken part of this plan is to make secular Syria – with its legal system taken from France – ‘Islamic’ (“we will implement Islamic law”) to justify the Israeli attacks and land grabs, which are being presented as ‘defensive measures against jihadists’.
Of course, it is correct that there is likely money to be made from these events. Seismic surveys before the first Syria war began in 2011 seemed to show that there are huge deposits of oil or gas in Syria, beyond the relatively small fields in the north-east. And yes, re-construction will be a bonanza for Turkey’s languishing construction sector.
All of which takes us directly back to Jeffrey’s statement: “Syria, given its size, its strategic location, its historical importance, is the pivot point for whether [there can be] an American-managed security system in the region …”. Syria has been from the outset – from 1949 – ‘the balancer’ to Israel in the region. That is now over, leaving only Iran to balance the Israeli thrust to a ‘Greater Israel’. It is no surprise then that the Israelis are agitating for the Americans to join with them in another orgy of destruction – this time. The U.S.-Israeli alliance has long wanted Syria. And now, they have got it. Israel nonetheless is its ‘win’. Winning what? Former IDF Chief of Staff and Defense Minister ‘Bogie’ puts it this way:
“The current Israeli government’s path is to conquer, annex, and commit ethnic cleansing … and to establish Jewish settlements. Polls show some 70% of Israelis, sometimes more, support this – AND for Israel to be a liberal democracy – this contradictory path will lead us to destruction”, he concludes. What other can be the final end to this Zionist project? There are more than seven million Palestinians between the ‘River and the Sea’. Are they all to vanish from the map? The story continues in Part 2.
