The story continues from Part 1 …
4. Bibi’s Washington Visit
The main reason for Bibi’s visit to Washington was to get the green light to widen he conflict into a regional war. This will help the 2 families in more ways than one. The second reason was to ask for more military supplies. He got both. The moment he returned to Israel, the 2 assassinations were carried out.
Let’s list the reasons:-
* expanding the conflict, the issue of Gaza gets taken off the table. Israel can escape the label of defeat.
*The issue of hostage swaps, then ending of the genocide in Gaza and a peace deal between Hamas and Israel gets taken off the table
5. Response from the West
In anticipation, the U.S. has begun bringing major reinforcements to the region, which includes F-22s, F-35s, F-16s, B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, an armada featuring two Carrier Groups, as well as amphibious landing ships with 4000 U.S. Marines: In fact, during April’s large strikes, the U.S. stated that it would be “very difficult to replicate” their alleged “success” in stopping Iranian missiles: “We think it will be very hard to replicate the huge success we had on Saturday with defeating the attack if Iran launches hundreds of missiles and drones again — and the Israelis know it,” another US official said.
One of the reasons is a huge amount of missiles were expended in trying to shoot down the hundreds of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles. Since multiple air defense missiles are usually required to shoot down a single target, it will always be the case that U.S. and co. will have to shoot far more missiles, which are already themselves far more expensive. The entire Defense industry has been ringing alarm bells for months that the U.S. forces in the region are nearing a crisis point when it comes to their ability to Weapons Systems Adds replenish AD assets. In a war against China, they know they would be in deep trouble.
Unwilling US Support for Tel Aviv
Senior US military officials, meanwhile, have gone on the record that Washington would probably be unable to provide Tel Aviv with sufficient protection even in a single front, full-scale war with Hezbollah. US Joint Chief of Staff Charles Brown said as much in his remarks to the press in late June : “ From our perspective, based on where our forces are, the short-range between Lebanon and Israel, it’s harder for us to be able to support them [Israel] in the same way we did in April”.
Although much has been said about the US and its allies successfully thwarting Iran’s response to the Israeli attack on its consulate last April, it is noteworthy that all the targets were successfully struck during the Iranian retaliatory strikes. Operation Truthful Promise was intended more as a warning, indicating that Tehran would no longer tolerate Israeli aggression against its interests.
US military assets in the region may help intercept missiles and drones coming from Lebanon, as it did during Iran’s retaliatory strikes. However, this also makes US military assets and those of its partner’s legitimate targets for the Resistance Axis.
As former Pentagon analyst Michael Maloof explains : “ Hezbollah would likely target US warships in the region that would take part in intercepting missiles directed at Israeli targets As in 2006, I envision US involvement focused more on evacuating many of the 86,000 Americans now in Lebanon who would want to leave,” .
Military Risk and Political Calculations
As Brown said at the time, Washington’s main message is: “To think about the second order of effect of any type of operation into Lebanon, and how that might play out and how it impacts not just the region, but how it impacts our forces in regions as well.”
General Brown – the most senior ranking US military official and the senior military advisor to the White House – was stating that an Israeli-initiated war on Lebanon would put US troops at risk, Brown was essentially saying that a wider regional war was not seen as helping US interests by the Pentagon’s top brass. If the US actively gets involved in the conflict, then all bets are off. In such a scenario, Tehran and other members of the Resistance Axis would likely deploy all available resources and strategies to defend their collective interests. And if US military forces or facilities become directly engaged, US interests – both military and economic – will be at the heart of the confrontation.
Deploying more US troops and assets into the region at such a critical juncture only broadens American target banks for the Axis.
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
The possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, is a recurring concern whenever tensions with the Iran rise. This strait is a crucial shipping route, handling of the world’s oil trade.
The closure of the strait would have immediate effects on global energy prices. In the first quarter of 2024, tankers shipped 15.5 million barrels of oil per day of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran through the strait. The strait is also a critical liquefied natural gas (LNG) corridor, with more than 20 % of the world’s supply, mostly from Qatar, passing through during the same period.
The danger of this corridor during times of tension lies in its shallow depth, which leaves passing ships vulnerable to mines. Its proximity to the Iranian mainland also makes ships susceptible to attacks by coastal missiles or interception by patrol boats and helicopters.
If the Hormuz Straits were closed it would cause a shock to the Wall Street – centered financial system. This would first start in the derivatives markets, expanding outwards at hyper speed and bring about a shut-down of the hopelessly insolvents trans-Atlantic financial system.
6. Iran Introduces New Weapons Systems
Iranian state television aired footage of the new weapons. However, the IRGC Navy noted that only 210 of the 2,654 systems were shown as it was not possible to unveil other strategic ones for security reasons.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on August 9 that its navy had received that are undetectable and can cause extensive damage and sink their targets,” a Guards statement said. Commenting on the delivery, IRGC top commander Major General Hossein Salami, said that “in today’s world, you either have to be powerful to survive, or surrender. There’s no middle ground.” undetectable cruise missiles equipped with highly explosive warheads. “A large number of cruise missiles have been added to the Guards’ navy fleet. These new missiles have capabilities of highly explosive warheads
The IRGC Navy also said in a statement that various types of long and medium-range missile systems as well as reconnaissance drones and naval radars had been added to its fleet. “These systems are among the most up-to-date anti-surface and sub-surface weapons in the Guards’ navy,” it said.
Shortly after the delivery of the new cruise missiles was announced, the IRGC released drone surveillance footage of United States and allied navy vessels in the Persian Gulf. The footage shows a San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock and a Wasp-class amphibious assault ship of the U.S. Navy as well as the Spanish helicopter carrier. Several Arab sources said that if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, Pakistan plans to supply Iran with Shaheen-III medium-range ballistic missiles, according to the Jerusalem Post on 6 August.
7. Response from Russia
As much as Russia and China are supporting Palestine and Iran on several levels, it’s inevitable that the focus of the Forever Wars is now turned against all of them. Escalation is rampant across the board – in Ukraine, Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, plus color revolutions from Bangladesh (successful) to Southeast Asia (aborted).
When NATO granted permission to use NATO supplied long-range weapons to strike deep into Russia, Putin replied that “ – – – he will arm the enemies of the US and Europe with weapons to both defend themselves and attack its enemies “. This is asymmetric warfare at its best.
Which brings us to the key drama in Tehran: how to carefully calibrate a response that will make Israel regretful, but not lead to bleeding wounds from Iran to Russia and China? The overarching clash – with Europe and NATO– is inevitable. Putin himself revealed it in stark terms when he said, “Any peace talks with Ukraine are impossible as long as it conducts strikes on civilian populations and threatens nuclear power plants.” The same applies to Israel in Gaza. “Peace talks” – or ceasefire negotiations – are impossible while Gaza and sovereign nations such as Iraq, and are being shelled at will. There’s only one way to deal with it: militarily, with smart force. Iran, in consultation with strategic partners Russia and China, may be trying to find a third way. The Israeli provocations, especially the assassination of Haniyeh, were a direct affront to three top BRICS members: Iran, Russia, and China. So, the response to Israel implies a concerted articulation of the trio, deriving from its interlocked comprehensive strategic partnerships. It also signals Chinese support for an Iranian reaction to Israel. Especially considering that the assassination of Haniyeh was seen in Beijing as an unforgivable slap to its considerable diplomatic efforts, taking place only a few days after the Hamas chief, alongside other Palestinian political representatives, signed the Beijing Declaration.
So Tehran may be pushing the waiting game, the psy ops, and the unbearable strategic ambiguity – to the limit – forcing Israeli settlers to stew in their underground bunkers until the whole, across-the-board, coordinated strategy is in place to deliver a killer blow. Russia and Iran have signed a “Strategic Co-operation “agreement this year. For obvious geopolitical reasons Russia and China cannot allow Iran to fall. Both will help Iran in its confrontation with Israel and NATO.
How to Calibrate a Deadly Response
On the bigger picture – the Axis of Resistance’s response to Israel – Russia is also deeply involved. Putin knew that Iran had to respond to the latest provocation from Israel. And that Israel would respond in a way that will make Iran retaliate again. Putin wanted to make sure that Iran is in a position to knock out the missiles fired from Israel- some of which may be tactical nukes.
Just as Putin helped Iran when Israel tried to nuke Iran with an EMP bomb in April (Russia shot down the F-35 over eastern Jordan), Putin sent help in the form of equipment and technicians to operate those systems. Then came a bombshell. Israel threatened Iran with nuclear strikes if they go ahead with the retaliation. Iran replied that its response to a nuclear strike will be far more devastating for Israel. At this moment, Putin acted extremely fast and ruthlessly.
Recently, a stream of Russian aircraft landed in Iran, reportedly carrying offensive and defensive military hardware, including the game-changing Murmansk-BN system, capable of jamming and scrambling all sorts of radio signals, GPS, communications, satellites, and electronic systems up to 5,000 kilometers away. Iran apparently, has received Russian ultra-long-range electronic warfare systems Murmansk-BN. Previously; these complexes were deployed in the Northern Fleet and in Crimea.
This is the ultimate nightmare for Israel and its NATO helpers. If deployed by Iran, the Murmansk- BN electronic warfare system can literally fry the whole Israeli grid, which is only 2,000 kilometers away, targeting military bases and also the electric grid. It also provides Iran with a more effective air defense system.
On top of that, there were two eye-opening articles that revealed Putin’s asymmetric response to the US and NATO, when he informed them that, “You can arm my enemies to attack me; now I will arm your enemies that you are attacking – – – let’s see how you feel about that!” Russia was preparing to deliver missiles and other military equipment to the Houthi rebels in Yemen late last month but pulled back at the minute amid a flurry of behind-the-scenes efforts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to stop it, CNN reports.
As well as new reports that Russian GRU intelligence officers have been behind the string of successful Houthi hits on Red Sea vessels: Thus, as anyone can see, Russia has already been quite active in asymmetrically opposing American imperialism, and this is how Russia plans to ‘respond’ to the U.S. using Ukraine as a proxy to hurt Russian interests.
This move by Russia blew a hole in the attack plan of the Israeli air-force. These air defense systems would prove to be very costly for Israel, and it may fail altogether. If Iran’s response intends to really go off the charts – teaching the occupation state an epic, unforgettable lesson – that might feature a combination of the Murmansk-BN and new Iranian hypersonic missiles. In addition, Iran also received S-400 air defense systems (currently the best and most advanced in the world), along with Iskander missiles; and perhaps some extra Russian hypersonic surprises. After all, Secretary of the National Security
Council Sergey Shoigu recently went to Tehran to meet with Iranian Chief of Staff Major General Bagheri, exactly to round up the finer points of their comprehensive strategic partnership, including in the military field.
Major General Bagheri even let the BRICS cat out of the bag when he said, “We will welcome the tripartite cooperation of Iran, Russia, and China.” That’s how civilization-states unite in practice to combat the Forever War ethos built into the Western “democratic” plutocracy.
Project Israel is practically on the verge of collapse as it awaits retaliation from the Resistance Axis.
8. Azerbaijan- Shifts from the West to the East – Putin’s Brilliant Move
Azerbaijan is just north of Iran. See the map here. At one time in the 19th century, it was a province of Iran, until Czarist Russia took it over. The US and UK managed to pull Azerbaijan into its orbit in the early 1990s, due for its oil and gas resources.
Since then, these 2 have tried their best to extract geopolitical advantages for itself. Last year, there was a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, over the Nagorno Karabak, which is now back to its rightful owners – Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is laying the groundwork to boost its ambitions in the South Caucasus and is looking to China for help. In just two months, Baku’s ties with Beijing have quickly moved forward as the oil-rich country has inched closer politically and economically through a series of agreements that could boost China’s presence in the region and open the door to newfound Chinese investment into Azerbaijan.
The series of recent moves began on July 3 when Azerbaijani President Aliyev met with Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana and declared they had upgraded bilateral ties through a new strategic partnership that calls for them to work closer together economically, militarily, and politically. Two weeks later, Baku applied to upgrade its status within the SCO from dialogue partner to observer, setting the stage to potentially become a full member.
Taken together, the collection of moves is part of China’s growing momentum in the region as The Middle Corridor is a key issue and Baku needs Beijing’s support. Immediate concern is that the success of the Middle Corridor depends on a steady flow of goods from China to establish a strong China-Europe route in the long term.”
For Azerbaijan, which is at a crossroads for trade on the Caspian Sea, this has led to new energy for the so-called Middle Corridor, the alternative trade route that bypasses Russia by cutting through Central Asia and the South Caucasus to connect to the European Union, and seen new investment worth billions of dollars. Azerbaijan and China have upgraded their bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership, focusing on economic, military, and political cooperation. Azerbaijan and China have upgraded their bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership, focusing on economic, military, and political cooperation. Azerbaijan seeks Chinese investment in infrastructure, green energy, advanced technology, and military equipment, aiming to become a regional manufacturing hub for electric vehicles.
Baku’s warming ties with Beijing are driven by a desire for economic diversification, increased trade, and a shifting geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus.
Both Israel and the US have many military and intelligence ties with Baku. These were aimed at Iran. For Iran, Israel’s presence in the country posed a serious threat to Iran, as it could launch attacks into Iran from the north, as well as conduct sabotage and assassination operations into Iran, using Azerbaijan.
Israel promised to respond If Iran was to retaliate for the assassination of Haniyeh. One of the areas of attack on Iran could come from Azerbaijan. Israel has threatened to attack Iran several times over the past few years. To close this option for Israel, Putin went to Azerbaijan.
Putin paid a visit to Baku on the 19th of August. It seems that Putin managed to win over its leader- Aliyev – over to Russia’s side. This is a big win. Aliyev made this decision as Russia was of great help in providing military help, which helped it defeat Armenia- backed by the EU and the US. Although the West gained Armenia, it lost Azerbaijan. This was a big loss for the West. Azerbaijan applied to become a member of BRICS the day after Putin returned to Moscow. Another geopolitical advantage for Russia is that the Caspian Sea is now a BRICS lake. Oh, how the two families are fuming over this geopolitical setback. We will do more on this subject in a future article.
9. Response from Other Powers
Several Arab sources said that if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, Pakistan plans to supply Iran with Shaheen-III medium-range ballistic missiles, the Jerusalem Post on 6 August. The sources made the statement amid an emergency meeting of the foreign ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Saudi Arabia. In addition, Erdogan of Turkey has warned that if Israel invades Lebanon, then Turkey will enter the fray. Erdogan is known as “The Mouth”. So, we can’t take his words seriously.
As we have witnessed last week, Hezbollah took revenge on Israel for the assassination of its senior commander Shukr. It followed the same playback used by Iran back in April, and struck military bases, plus 4 other super vital sites.
10. The OIC Meeting
The sources made the statement amid an emergency meeting of the foreign ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Saudi Arabia. The meeting was requested by Iran and Pakistan as Iran determines its retaliation for Israel’s assassinations of Hamas political bureau chief in Tehran and Hezbollah senior commander in Beirut last week.
The meeting was requested by Iran and Pakistan as Iran determines its retaliation for Israel’s assassinations of Hamas political bureau chief in Tehran and Hezbollah senior commander in Beirut last month .
The OIC represents 57 Islamic countries and sees itself as the voice of the Muslim world. It includes major Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as populous non-Arab states such as Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Central Asian nations. Unfortunately for the Palestinians, the OIC has proved itself to be impotent.
11. How a BRICS Trio is Staring down Israel
While Israel increasingly isolates itself on the international stage, BRICS members Iran, Russia, and China are quietly coordinating a full-spectrum effort to support Palestine diplomatically and militarily.
The Global Majority is fully aware that the genocidals in Tel Aviv are trying as hard as they can to provoke an apocalyptic war – with full US military support, of course.
Iran’s acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, has recently remarked how Tehran is trying hard to prevent “the Israeli regime’s ‘dream’ of triggering an all-out regional war.” But one should never interrupt the enemy when he is in total panic. Iran certainly won’t interfere as the US and G7 members pull out all stops to come up with some semblance of a Gaza ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel to prevent a serious military retaliation by Iran and the Axis of Resistance.
Earlier this week that warning bore fruit: Hamas representative in Lebanon, Ahmed Abdel Hadi, said that Hamas will not show up at the tentative negotiation round on Thursday – today. The reason? “The clear climate is full of deceit and procrastination from Netanyahu, playing for time while the Axis prepares a response to the assassination of Haniyeh and Shukr… [Hamas] will not enter into negotiations that provide cover for Netanyahu and his extremist government.”
So the waiting game, to rattle Israel’s nerves, will persist. Beneath all the cheap drama of the collective west begging Iran to not respond, there is a void. Nothing is offered in return. Worse. Washington’s European vassals – the UK, France, and Germany – issued a statement straight out of Desperation Row, where they “call on Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks that would further escalate regional tensions and jeopardize the opportunity to agree a ceasefire and the release of hostages. They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardize this opportunity for peace and stability. No country or nation stands to gain from a further escalation in the Middle East.” Iranian diplomacy swiftly replied to the vassals, stressing its “recognized right” to defend national sovereignty and create deterrence against Israel, the real source of terrorism in the Middle East. And crucially, they “do not seek permission from anyone” to exercise it.
The heart of the matter predictably escapes western logic: If Washington had forced a Gaza ceasefire last year the risk of an apocalyptic war convulsing the region would have been avoided. Instead, the US on Wednesday approved a $20 billion weapons package to Tel Aviv, showing exactly how committed the Americans are to securing a permanent ceasefire.
The region stands on a knife’s edge as the region’s Axis of Resistance prepares to retaliate against a series of recent Israeli assassinations and aggressions.
Furthermore, the rise of BRICS and the Global South in general means that Iran and other adversarial countries will continue gaining power and ascendancy while Israel’s allies are steadily weakened on the world stage. It was recently stated that even Saudi Arabia’s bin Salman was threatened with assassination due to talks of his reconciliation with Israel, showing that trends have turned against Israel in the region. Let’s see how this may play out in the coming days and weeks.
Our next article is called “A Fractured Israel on the Verge of Collapse “.
